The crisis in Brasil and Latinamerica and its implications
The era of the leftwing goverments in Latinamerica seems to be over. Argentine, Brasil are facing a deep crisis and the role model, the „socialism of the 21st century“, the Chavism in Venezuela is at the brink of collapse. At the same time China`s expansion in Latinamerica is slowing down. Seems that the new goverments in Latinamerica will lean more on the USA and a free-market-orientated policy. However, the question is if crisis-ridden countries in Latinamerica are in the US interest because they could be a source on instability. Sad to see that left icons like Lula and Roussef turned out to be as corrupt and ineffective as their counterparts. Brasil as a BRICS country was seen as an emerging country, as role model for other countries.BRICS is now also in crisis (except India) and China as raw material and oil importer for those countries is itself in trouble.The growth model of the BRICS which lasted for more than a decade seems to come to an end.
Article about Venezuela by Evan Ellis and the different scenarios about its future: A state-led crony capitalism replacing Maduro supported by China and Russia ( the left could claim that this would be the new form of the socialism of the 21st Century) or an implosion:
„Whatever the outcome in Venezuela, the region will have to rely on the strength of its institutions to manage the crisis. The Organization of American States, and associated financial and other institutions of the inter-american system, will be key to allowing a kleptocrat-led post-Maduro Venezuela to economically recover, while pressuring it to rebuild true democratic institutions. Reciprocally, a multinational force led by Brazil (presuming its own political crisis would not impair it from doing so) or other Latin American states, without U.S. troops, may be the only politically acceptable way of restoring order to a Venezuela that has imploded.“
However, sending troops in a imploded Venezuela to restore order, could be very adventurous, given the fact that other countries like Brazil are facing their own internal and economic crisis.The article doesn´t make clear how the USA should react according to these scenarios.It seems that Evan Ellis thinks the Latinamericans had to solve this crisis themselves. Or in the case of an implosion let the Latinamerican countries do the job of the US troops.However, how likely would it be that other countries would send troops to Venezuela? Couldn´t this spark a guerilla war or civil war against the occupying forces?
If Latinamerican states would send troops to an imploded Venezuela, couldn´t this lead to the situation that the Venezuelian virus spreads trough the region, triggering instability elsewhere? Brasil and other countries would also have immense and massive financial burdens to finance such a troop deployment, which could have a backlash and destablize the other Latinamerican countries. Or would the USA pay or support the Latinamerican countires for their troop deployment as price that they themselve save the money to do it on their own and to avoid the image of ugly Yankee-imperialism?
The left winged goverments have lost their popular support, now the conservative, market-orientated forces are on the rise. However, their support is also rather shaky and fragile:
„Temer takes office with a weak government and mandate; recent polls showed that only 2 percent of Brazilians wanted him to be president.“
Result could be new elections and new politicians as the old establishment doesn´t seem to have any popular support anymore.
However if the „new“ conservative and liberal politicians don´t solve the crisis and if their „new“ neoliberal growth model doesn´t work, it could be possible that Latinamerica is returning to military dictatorships or that a rightwing, nationalistic populist anti-establishment movement like in the rest of the world could be on the rise. A Latinamerican Le Pen or Trump or Roberto Duterte. Make Brasil/Latinamerica great ( again) ! Last question: Will Brasil under the new goverment or other Latinamerican goverments join TPP or will they rely on their Mercusor zone?