Some basic thoughts on the Chinese opposition movement

First the Chinese opposition should have a common sense or find a compromise for a united front and ask itself which sort of New China she would like to have:

• A Western democracy, be it representative democracy as in Germany or presidential democracy in the USA (as represented by Fang Lizhi, Hu Ping or Weijingsheng)

• A Democracy with Chinese characters (first of all it would be necessary to clarify how it would look like and this would be a long process, since one can not refer to already existing models, maybe even India).
• Chinese Singapore semi-authoritarian democracy with rule of law and prevalence of a reformed CP China or other parties

• Return to the collective leadership of the Communist Party of China without social bonus system – one-party dictatorship instead of one-man-dictatorship with a totalitarianism

The last point would be unacceptable to the democracy movement, be only the demand of Xi-Jinping opponents within the Communist Party of China which could be in greater proportions and could be a result of  an escalation of Simo-American trade war, even a war, an imperial overstretch by the New Silk Road Xi’s cleansing orgies against KP internal critics, a financial or economic crisis that calls into question the legitimacy of the Communist Party as a developmental dictatorship, leading to a fractionalization, a power struggle within, even a split, of the Communist Party of China.

The Chinese democratic-secular opposition must therefore also think about who are allies for which goal. To what extent an alliance of the secular-democratic forces without CP dissidents and neo-religious-authoritarian Falungong is set, whether one wants an alliance with the Falungong, whether one wants an alliance with Communist Party dissidents – perhaps with the offer of a democracy with Chinese characteristics ( although one could put the clarification of the democratic form of society also after a seizure of power, but which would postpone the conflict, that also new authoritarian movements can creep in, which verbally advocates democracy, but abolish it after seizing power, especially since it is to be feared that the negotiation process in the post-CP China  could bring a paralyzing dispute between the various groups that cause instability) or a Chinese Singapore, which, however, does not question the role of a leader party`s existence as far as it reforms. As long as these issues are not offensively discussed and clarified, there is no prospect of a common strategy for the Chinese opposition, which is already marginalized at home and abroad anyway.

Other key issues that still have to be clarified, but which largely arise from the former, are the question of central state/federalism, the role of the military and the economy, and how one wants to reach the youth and which groups of the population will be addressed for mobilization.

Über Ralf Ostner

Ralf Ostner geboren 1964 in Frankfurt am Main, 1984 Abitur in Bayern--Leitungskurse: Physik und Kunst/ Schülerzeitung. Studium der Physik (Nebenfächer: Mathematik, Chemie), Wirtschaftsgeographie (Nebenfächer: BWL, VWL) und Studium der Sinologie. 1991 Abschluss als staatlich geprüfter Übersetzer in der englischen und chinesischen Sprache am Sprachen- und Dolmetscher-Institut/München (Leiter der Chinesisch-Abteilung: Herr Zhang, ehemaliger Dolmetscher von Deng Xiaoping und Franz-Josef Strauß).Danach 5 Jahre Asienaufenthalt: China, Indien, Südostasien (u.a. in Kambodscha während des ersten Auslandseinsatzes der Bundeswehr, Interviews mit Auslandschinesen, Recherche im Karen-Guerillagebiet in Burma, Unterstützung einer UNO-Mitarbeiterin während den Aufständen in Nepal und bei UNO-Arbeit in Indien), Australien. Danach 5 Jahre als Dolmetscher, Delegationsbegleiter und Übersetzer in München. Abendstudium an der Hochschule für Politik /München (Schwerpunkt: Internationale Beziehungen). Abschluss als Diplom-Politologe (Diplomarbeit: Die deutsch-chinesischen Beziehungen 1989-2000 unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der SPD-Grünen-Regierung). Delegationsbegleitung von Hu Ping, Chefredakteur der chinesischen Dissidentenzeitung "Pekinger Frühling" (New York)und prominentester Vertreter eines chinesischen Liberalismus bei seiner Deutschlandtour (Uni München, Uni Mainz, Berlin/FU-Humboldt) bei gleichzeitigem Kontakt mit Liu Liqun (Autor des Buches "Westliches Denken transzendieren"/ heute: Deutschlandberater der chinesischen Regierung).Chefredakteur der Studentenzeitschrift UNIPOL . Projekte am Goethe-Institut und bei FOCUS TV. Seit 2000 Übersetzer (chinesisch-deutsch), Graphiker, freier Schriftsteller und Blogger.
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