After the counter-strike against revolutionary general Solemeini´s increasingly aggressive expansion efforts and the prevented occupation of the US embassy in Iraq, many experts now assumed that all Iranians, Iraqis, and Muslims would become nationalists against the United States. While the withdrawal of US troops and all foreign military personnel are now being demanded from all sides in Iraq, Iran is now experiencing a different development. After Khameini and Rouhani mobilized their supporters to mournings for Solmeini, the Iranian counterstrike remained very limited to an Iraqi military with some US soldiers, especially with warning and without deaths or injuries, mass demonstrations are now spreading in almost all cities in Iram which use the shooting down of the Ukrainian Boeing as an excuse to demand the resignation of the Supreme Spiritual Leader Khameinis now after the elimination of the top military leader Solmeini. Trump has now officially backed the protesters, whom he calls the Iranian people like the other side, and is calling for an open regime change.
But you have to see the history of the protests. The Green Revolution came first. which supported reform mullahs, wanted to stay within the system and was brutally crushed by Khameini, which resulted in two terms of office for the fanatic Ahmadinejad, who primarily organized Holocaust conferences, promoted expansionism, the Hizbollah war against Israel and expanded the nuclear weapons program, which lead to western sanctions and many people in Iran critizised the costs for military expansion and armament along with immense corruption in the supposedly clean mullah system. Ahmadinejad’s rule led to a dead-end, which then led to the election of reform ayatollah Rouhani. The latter promised to bring Iran out of its economic misery by moving closer to the West and to bring Iran back into the international community-
The USA, the EU. Germany, the UK, F, China, and Russia then decided the Iran deal to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but the deal left Iran foreign military expansion in the Middle East, as well as medium and long-range missile programs and limited the accession of nuclear weapons only for 10 years. Trump, Israel and Saudi Arabia were not satisfied with the fact that Iran was expanding, holding missile tests that could also get the nuclear warheads after the expiry of the Iranian deal. Trump replied with the termination of the Iran deal, starting an economic strangulation of Iran through economic sanctions, which should induce it to a new deal that would ultimately give up nuclear weapons, stop the expansion in the Shiite crescent, end missile programs and stop endanger Israel and the US -allies.
The economic sanctions then also had their effect. After the increase in gasoline prices, massive protests followed in Iran, which took place not only in the cities but also in the rural areas and the countryside by broad sections of the population from the lower to middle classes and not only the more pro-western bourgeois population of Northern Tehran, students or the few organized workers, on whose mobilization the previous regime change thinkers of the USA such as the neoliberal Neocon think tank American Enterprise Institute hoped as they suddenly discovered the working class and hoped for an Iranian Üolish-style Solidarity movements including general strikes, after John Bolton’s failed attempt to build up the People’s Mujahedeen as a game changer visiting their meetings in Europe, last visit Paris. But these protests only lasted 3 weeks and then vanished. Nevertheless, the Islamist regime was amazed at the breadth of the movement.
Since Iran believed that the United States was no longer willing to go to war after the drone strike on Saudi Arabia, they intensified their attacks on US bases and allies and wanted to force their withdrawal from Iraq, most recently with the attempted occupation of the US embassy, which created a nightmare experience and dejavu of the 1980 US Embassy occupation, especially since then-President Carter was overthrown in the election campaign to make room for Ronald Reagan, who then made his sort of Deal -Irangate Trump did not want to experience this fate and that’s why he ordered the drone strike against Iran’s top symbol of aggressive expansion Solmeini. Now that the Iranian regime has hoped for a national solidarity effect, mass protests of the Iranian opposition, which go far beyond students, the more bourgeoise neighborhoods of Northern Tehran and the People’s Mujahedeen, are now openly supported by Trump, following the support of anti-government demonstrations, with the British ambassador who was arrested.
How all of this will develop remains unclear. If Khameini let the Revolutionary Guards shooting at the people, if he mobilizes his own masses of people, if Iran becomes new Syria, if the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia arm the opposition, as was the case in Syria at the time, if the protesters will calm down again- we have to wait. An expert said that perhaps the most optimistic outlook is that the Iranian military makes a coup d’état. But the Iranian military has been cleansed, subordinated to Islamic commissioners, the Shah-loyalist military fled to the United States, those who stayed and wanted to serve the mullah regime were mostly murdered, and since the Iranian military was virtually non-existent after 1979, the Iranian-Iraq war in 1980 led to to a rebirth of the military and restructured it and had to rely on the strategy of human waves in order to be able to counter Saddam Hussein’s military with any military force after the Iranian military had effectively been dissolved. The Iraqi war is actually the new birth of the Iranian military and this had to be reorganized as the Bolsheviks under Trotsky improvised with the Red Army. There are hardly any publications in Iranian literature on how the Iranian military has developed since then. But to assume that an Iranian charismatic or even secular young officer ala Ghaddafi, Nasser or Attaturk might act and bring about order in Iran is highly doubtful.
The problem is also that the opposition is no longer demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Rouhani, but the resignation of the Supreme Spiritual Leader Khameini. It is doubtful that this opposition wants a new reform leader, but aims at the abolition of the Islamist dictatorship, just a regime change. Whether this will take place or not will result in a new Syria. if the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia would also arm the opposition, Khameini would rather make a Trump deal or resign before his own deposition and leave it to a successor, or if a regime change fails, a U.S.-Iranian war will follow, we will see. In any case, Putin, Xi and Erdogan should see that foreign policy expansion can also lead to an imperial overstretch, which can then no longer be alleviated by stirring up nationalism, but could lead to a loss of power.