Powerstruggle in the Assad family- the last hope of the West? For what?
„It seems that Western governments and liberals have not learned their lesson. They still want Assad been toppled and then a democratic, peaceful Syria would emerge. The new hope is an internal power struggle within the Assad family, especially by his cousin:
„Leading the cast is the Syrian leader, Bashar al-Assad, and Syria’s first lady, Asma al-Assad, but star billing has so far been taken by the president’s first cousin, Rami Makhlouf, who last week took to Facebook to do the unthinkable: air the normally inscrutable family’s dirty laundry.
Makhlouf, Syria’s most powerful tycoon and its richest man throughout Assad’s 20-year reign, complained that his cousin was sending secret police to seize his assets and shutter his businesses. In doing so, he laid bare a power struggle that now threatens the very existence of the Syrian regime, sparking a fissure in the ruling Alawite sect, and leaving regular Syrians aghast.
Without a hint of irony, Makhlouf boasted of bankrolling Syria’s infamous security forces, who have tortured and disappeared thousands of people in nine years of war, then complained that his employees had been treated in “an inhumane way”
Only some questions: Does the West and its supporters really think that the ousting of Assad would bring a more pluralistic and secular-democratic Syria? Would his cousin be for democracy? Could he have control over the Baath party and their warlords? Would he built a democratic Syria by elections and integrate all the Islamist parties and militias? Who would be the winner in this election ? The secular-democratic forces are marginalized, the Free Syrian Army and the Southern Front a shadow of their own. The main opposition is the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists who would run the show and be strengthened, even seize power. Would a power struggle within the Assad family not restart the Syrian civil war as the Islamist militias and the Muslim Brotherhood would now see a chance to seize power? Would Russia support the cousin if he guarantees them their military bases in Tartus and Lakthkia? Could he do this? Would Assad´s cousin not just oppress the opposition as much as Assad did? Is he a democrat or just wants to replace his cousin as a leader? Couldn´t the result be that a weakened Baath party and the weak Assad cousin would become an easy victim for Islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood? Wouldn´t Erdogan-Turkey use this opportunity to get rid of the cousin with the Islamist murder militias and the Muslim brotherhood and expand his own neo-Ottomanian empire as he is already doing in Libya? In Libya Erdogan is sending troops who openly engage in the war, while the Russians retreat as General Haftar failed with his offensive on Tripolis and the Erdogan-backed forces are going in the offensive. General Haftar threatened to attack Turkish troops, but at that time Putin decided to withdraw his inofficial Wagner mercenary troop in order not to get in a direct confrontation with Erdogan-Turkey and be drawn in an imperial overstretch quagmire. The West is so stupid that he just wants to see Assad toppled and the Russians out of Syria. They ignore that the Islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood and Erdogan-Turkey will be the winners and not a secular- democratic government. Or is it the new policy of the West to promote Islamists and NATO partner Erdogan´s neo-Ottoman empire ? However, if a power struggle emerges in the Assad family, Russia could also face big problems in Syria. Russian strategist Karaganov´s idea of Russia of a global supplier of international security would after Libya have ist next limits. The Werst has toppled mow all pan Arabian, secular despots from Mubarak, Ben Ali, Saddam Hussein to Ghaddafi instead of fighting he Muslim brothers and Islamists. The anti-IS front was the only exception. But it looks like the West wants to repeat its pattern to topple a secular despot like Assad in order to get the Muslimbrotehrhodod or other Ilsmaists in power and to support the expansion of Erdogan´s neo-Ottoman empire. That would be the likely result.