Lebanon- New Order or New Civil war?
After the explosion in the Beirut port with 135 dead and 300,000 homeless people, including the destruction of the port facilities and the adjoining part of the city, speculation flourished as to whether it was an attack or sloppiness, corruption and whether the ammonium nitrate store was an explosives depot. It was noticeable that Hezbollah immediately declared preventively that it was not involved and that the depot was not an arms depot either. Trump immediately spoke of a terrorist attack, probably suspecting Iran and Hezbollah, which should be nonsense, since such an attack would get the current government into trouble which is more pro-Iranian and pro-Syrian after the resignation of Hariri and the prime minister a man of Hezbollah. All other states speak of an accident, or authority sloppiness and the inability of the government. The international community is now organizing aid, including Israel German defense minister AKK also has the opportunity to bring the Bundeswehr into play.
It is interesting that in the previous weeks there were fires and attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran, which are probably organized by the Mossad or the CIA or both to sabotage Iran´s nuclear program. In addition to air strikes on Hezbollah positions in Syria, Israel is also carrying out attacks against Iran. So the speculation first emerged that the port depot in Beirut with ammonium nitrate was a Hezbollah warehouse that was unofficially tolerated and destroyed by Isreal. It is possible that the Israelis were not clear enough about the fatal detonation force, or if they were, on it from making propaganda against Hezbollah and overthrowing the more pro-Iranian-Syrian government.But this was just a mind game, because a main argument against this theory is that should such an Israeli attack be revealed that Israel would be, this would bring the world opinion against Israel It is also significant that the Arab and Iranian agitators and Hezbollah have not indicted Israel or circulated any conspiracy theories in this direction. Perhaps Hezbollah also fears that if the ammonium nitrate warehouse belonged to them, that the mood against Hezbollah and the Iran could really heat it up, but Rouhani held back open blame to the explosions in Iran and now back in Beirut towards Israel so as not to escalate the situation.
Israel and the USA have also been campaigning against Iran and Hezbollah for some time, which is also reflected in the German media. Three days ago there was a documentary on Phönix TV about the Hezbollah attack on the Jewish community in Argentina, which culminated in the murder of the public prosecutor who wanted to investigate and the whole thing turned into a veritable state crisis. Today news on German television aired that Hezbollah has ammonium nitrate storage facilities in Germany and one of them was dug up by the police in Bavaria. BILD suspected that the ammonium nitrate warehouse in Beirut belonged to Hezbollah and shot at the terrorist organization.
The US, Saudi Arabia and Israel focus on Iran and Hezbollah. According to this, the ammonium nitrate store in Beirut port was a Hezbollah store, which also supplies the Assad regime and the Hezbollah fighters in Syria. What is strange is that the warehouse was not used at all for 6-7 years. Either it was not a explosives depot or the deliveries were stopped by US-friendly forces. For Iran, one thing is clear: it was the Saudis, and the ammonium nitrate was intended to be delivered for anti-Assad militia in Syria, and politicians close to the Saudis would control the port. Iran, in turn, counters that the ammonium nitrate store was a Saudi explosives depot, since the port facility is also under the control of pro-Saudi forces in Lebanon, who would have left the government in the dark about its existence. The pro-government Tehran Times wrote:
„A diplomatic source familiar with the situation in Lebanon told the Tehran Times that the blast is “highly likely” to be an orchestrated sabotage.
Lebanese President Michel Aoun has said that the blast was caused by explosive materials stored in a warehouse at the Beirut port.
“It is unacceptable that a shipment of 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate has been present for six years in a warehouse, without taking preventive measures,” the president noted.
The source told the Tehran Times that the shipment contained highly explosive materials that were imported from an Eastern European country six years ago and it was supposed to be delivered to militants in Syria.
“Lebanon’s prime minister, president, and the cabinet ministers didn’t know that such a shipment is stored in a warehouse at the port,” the source said, adding that financial issues between the buyer and seller of the shipment have prevented its delivery to the Syrian militants.
If true, this information stands in stark contrast to what the Saudi and American media outlets say about the alleged role of Hezbollah in the blast. The Saudi media has managed to blame the explosion on Hezbollah. For example, al-Hadath TV, a Saudi news network, immediately broadcasted footages from the site of the blast suggesting that it was a result of a missile hitting the port. The network also hosted analysts who laid the blame for the explosion on Hezbollah. The analysts claimed that Hezbollah was to blame for the blast because even if it wasn’t an attack, Hezbollah would be responsible for “storing arms” at the port.
However, independent analysts believe that Hezbollah and its allies in the Hassan Diab government were the parties most affected by the destruction of the Beirut port because Lebanon has already been reeling from a devastating financial and economic crisis and the Beirut port blast will only make the economic situation worse.
About 70% of Lebanon’s imported goods were entering the country through the Beirut port, which includes wheat silos and a free zone with an area of 81,000 square meters. But the ports are now totally destroyed. Therefore, the Diab cabinet, which is backed by Hezbollah, will face difficulties providing citizens with basic goods like wheat and medicines.
Some analysts believe that the Saudis may have some role in the blast because the Beirut port is basically managed by their ally, al-Mostaqbal bloc.
“Evidence shows that the Saudis may have a role in the blast,” Amir Mousavi, a former Iranian diplomat, who served as Iranian cultural attaché in Algeria in 2015, told the Tehran Times. He said that the Lebanese authorities’ investigation into the blast could hurt the Saudis and their allies in Lebanon.
According to Mousavi, officials at the Beirut port are closely allied to the al-Mostaqbal bloc and its Saudi-backed leader, Saad al-Hariri. Mousavi confirmed that senior Lebanese officials were unaware of the existence of the explosive materials at the port.
“The al-Mostaqbal-backed officials at the Beirut port didn’t inform the government or other high-ranking Lebanese officials that there were highly explosive materials stored in a warehouse at the port,” said Mousavi, who is now the director of the Tehran-based Center for Strategic Studies and International Relations.
He also said that the Diab government inherited the current economic woes from al-Hariri, who left the power in late October 2019 amid nationwide protests in the country.
“Diab inherited the government from al-Hariri with an empty treasury. During the last days of al-Hariri’s premiership, his allies took out about $20 billion from Lebanon, a move that exacerbated Lebanon’s hard currency crisis,” Mousavi pointed out.
The former diplomat went on to say that unlike Saudi Arabia, which sought to exploit the Beirut blast to sow discord among the Lebanese and mobilize them against Hezbollah, Iran rushed to help Lebanon immediately after the Tuesday blast, sending three planes with medical aid to Lebanon including a field hospital.“
Hezbollah boss Nasrahalla has now postponed his official statement to Friday.
In the case of Lebanon, one also wonders who believes they can smuggle such quantities undetected, who should be the recipient and why they were lying around for so long and not used for agricultural fertilizer, which Lebanon so urgently needs – and on the same day Report of a major fire in the UAE, but the latter can also be a coincidence and have nothing to do with it. The mayor of Tehran, on the other hand, warns of similarly explosive tank depots in Itrran, which in the event of an attack, military strike or accident could be even more devastating than the explosion in Beirut, which is said to have had the detonation force of 10% of the Hiroshima bomb.
Lebanon is going through 5 crises at the same time:
The financial crisis, the political crisis that is now close to a popular uprising and on the brink of a new civil war, the corona crisis, the refugee crisis and now the explosion crisis. The latter could bring the barrel to overflowing. If it was an attack, the goal should be to unleash a real civil war or the intervention of foreign actors. If it was government sloppiness, the government could no longer be held, the call for radical changes might be loud Lebanon could become a failed state that will only depend on foreign handouts.
Since Trump does not want to act as a leading power here, the former protectorate power France has now taken over, which now wants to bring the EU into play. Macron personally visited Lebanon, took a bath in the crowd, met President Aoun, promised to organize an international donor conference for the reconstruction of Lebanon, called for the establishment of a „new political order in Lebanon“and a “treaty”and “pact”, political and economic reforms. The IMF also promised aid, but only against economic reforms. In addition, Macron promised that the aid would be controlled and should not disappear into the pockets of the corrupt Lebanese upper class, but should reach the population directly. He also called for an international inquiry commission under the auspices of France, but experts are very skeptical as to whether these reforms will come about, especially since the great powers and regional powers could continue to cling to the ruling clans and elites, and there is no foreseeable new cross-denominational political force that could overcome the proportional representation and clientele system that exists since 1943. The geopolitical struggle in Lebanon could also intensify. Iran fears that the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia will now seize the opportunity to restructure Lebanon in their favor and to disempower and disarm Hezbollah. The Tehran Times writes:
„The critical question is: who is responsible for the cargo to be stuck in the port for so long? There are different answers to this question. Reliable data proves that the Lebanese government at the time seized the cargo for customs reasons. But media outlets that have been fighting against the Resistance Front for quite a long time (inside and outside the region) now spread unconfirmed information suggesting an arms depot that belongs to Hezbollah made the blast so powerful. This implants an idea deep inside the brains of the Lebanese: Beirut’s disastrous incident is somehow related to Hezbollah.
On the other side, the country will soon need significant help from other countries to reconstruct itself, which will give countries like the U.S. and Saudi Arabia a golden opportunity to complete their puzzle in the region and serve the interests of Israel in a better way. Whether the U.S. would step forward for help directly, or send another country from Europe or West Asia as a representative, the main precondition to rebuild the infrastructure will probably be disarmament of Hezbollah. Regarding the harsh conditions caused by the biting sanctions, it can be hard to convince the Lebanese to resist against the condition to disarm Hezbollah.
Countries like Iran, Iraq, and Syria must RUSH to help Lebanon, now.“
The only question is whether Hesbollah can be disarmed so easily and who should disarm it, or whether this would not be the start of a new civil war in Lebanon.