Biden is elected – with most of the traditional voters, the electoral college and before the postal vote is counted, which will probably strengthen him. The former Trump TV station Fox News announced Biden’s election victory and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, old establishment Republican as well as George W. Bush jr. congratulated Biden on winning the election, while Mitt Romney and Ted Cruz are still oscillating.. It is also interesting that neither Beijing nor Russia were held responsible for meddling in the US elections and didn´t congratulate Biden at the beginning. The Democrats are said to have stolen the election victory through manipulation and behind this fake news are the Republicans from a spectrum like the hawkish Lindsey Graham, who supports Trump, to Mitch Mc Conell, who points out Trump’s right to be allowed to check the election results, but does not want to commit himself to the election result and its alleged manipulation.
Anyone who now believes that Trump will be gone with Biden’s election victory or that he could simply return in 2024 must first wait for the coming development. The voices that painted nightmarish worst-case scenarios that Trump could spark a civil war or try to get the election cause to the Supreme Court, which has a Republican majority, have become silent. However, some pessimists point out that Trump is still in office till January 20th and could do a lot of damage and start a military or foreign policy adventure. As the South China Morning Post reported some Chinese politicians and militaries asked if the replacement of Secretary of Defense Espers a signal that Trump could start a conflict around Taiwan or the South Chinese Sea. Therefore the CPC prepares itself for a worst-case, but thinks that such an event was unlikely. Many experts guess that Trump will focus on the 2024 elections, wants to preserve his image of the business man who didn´t start a war in his term, strengthen his base within the Republicans and the population and make some sort of fundamental opposition against Biden and continue his attacks in a sort of continued election campaign. After the election 2020 is before the election 2024.
First the Republican Party. In 2016 only establishment Republicans ran, and Trump won anyway. This has to do with the fact that the Republican Party has radicalized itself since George W. Bush senior. First came Newt Gingrich, a radical representative, then the neocons under George W. Bush. Jr. And then the Tea party movement. Even then, Obama was allowed to clean up the disaster that they had left behind through the Iraq war and the financial crisis, and the Republicans were fundamentally opposed to both the Senate and the House of Representatives, so that Obama, who had always sought a compromise, pushed through his plans through Presidential Executive Orders and his Democrats In the US presidential election, in which Mc Cain ran for the Republicans, he had to take Sarah Palin on board as the Tea party icon in order to keep the Republicans together at all. The election campaign was also crazy: Palin raised conspiracy Theories against Obama, according to which he was a Muslim and not born in the USA, Mc Cain always defended Obama against these baseless accusations and fake news and lost the elections for the Republicans. But that did not mean that the new right-wing brew within the Republicans had come to a standstill. Trump came across this new loophole, was also supported by Palin, was completely underestimated by the previous establishment Republicans and became US President. Trump has established himself as a parasite in the old GOP, has become its head, sucks out the old establishment and is no longer so easy to get rid of. Trump said that any Republican who would recognize Biden’s election victory would have to be expelled from the Republicans. He wants to purge the last of the establishment Republicans from the party.
At the same time, a number of Republicans feel threatened by studies that predict structural inferiority in the future because they would primarily become a party of the angry white man, perhaps with a small group of minorities, who could no longer make electoral victories with the demographic trend. Therefore, some Republicans are seriously discussing the abolition of postal votes, while others see it as a questioning of democracy and, like old establishment Republicans like the Bushs, clearly recognize Biden’s election victory. Now Trump will not be able to cleanse the Republican Party of these establishment Republicans so easily, many are also still in a tactical waiting and middle position, but conversely, the establishment Republicans will not be able to exclude Trump from the party- both sides at the moment hope that they can expand their own position. It is unlikely that the Republican Party in its current state will come to compromises with the Biden Democratic Party, but will rather continue to make fundamental opposition. At least in domestic matters of abortion, taxes, gun control, environmental protection and the New Green Deal, etc. In terms of foreign policy, Democrats and Republicans have decided on a joint increased budget for the US military and have also approved all arms programs together. Instead of allowing Trump or one of his family´s member to run again in 2024, other establishment Republicans will probably try to prevent this. But apart from Mike Pompeo there isn’t much in sight or has yet to be discovered.
In addition, many experts guess that Trump, since he can only torpedo Biden’s inauguration and presidency for some time, is now putting his main strength on building his own base within the Republicans, as well as perhaps establishing his own media empire that will increase his impact. So far there has already been a right-wing empire of its own from Fox News to Breitbart, and most 60% of Americans see local TV channels above all, which are rated as more credible than the national channels, but mainly national news are there distributed alongside local news by the rather monolithic media company Sinclair. Sinclair is broadcasting pro- Trump news and fake news and a Trump advisor sits on its supervisory board. But Trump’s previous media support is probably not enough for him, especially since Fox News also has limited support, and his Twitter account is also not enough , which is why it is quite possible that he is now building up his own central media empire using sponsirung, crowd funding and his own finances to increase his media clout that could multiply against his rivals in the Republican Party, against the Democrats and Biden, in order to undermine Biden’s presidential policy and focus on the upcoming election year 2024.
To what extent the establishment Republicans can counterbalance or create their own new candidates remains to be seen. The rumors that Trump would be jailed for FBI investigations are bullshit too. Because a Trump in prison would give him the ultimate martyr status, especially since the other members of the Republicans and Democrats would fear revelations about their own corruption relationships. In any case, Trumpism, along with its constituents and supporters and tactical allies of some establishment Republicans and hawks like Lindsey Graham, is not gone and still remains in effect.
So much for the internal party fight between the Republicans and the Trumpists. But now the Democratic Party is also facing its own wing battles. The Democratic Party agreed that they wanted Trump away, but it was less of an election for Biden and more of an election against Trump. Now Biden has to moderate the erupting wing fight within the Democrats, along with the attacks by Trump and parts of the Republicans with a likely fundamental opposition. With Kamala Harris, Biden has appointed an Afro-Asian identity woman as deputy representative, but she is more of a conservative democrat and is also known as a law and order woman. Now both conservatives and moderate, as well as progressives and leftists within the Democratic Party want Biden to give them a position in the new White House for their election support. However, all of this is subject to the provision that Trump and Republicans have denounced Biden and Harris as the transformation candidates for the far left of the Democrats. Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez, Bernie Sanders and Elisabeth Warren would like to see the democratic left in ministerial offices, be it Bernie Sanders as minister of labor, Elizabeth Warren as minister of finance, while the conservative wing of the Democrats is strictly against it, the Democratic governor from Virginia Applegate warns that the Democrats not only like the left Ocasio-Cortez would have to win secure democratic minority areas as New York and the Bronx and Queens, but also the populations of the more conservative swing states. It is also interesting that she was a former CIA- agent and the Democrats have filled their candidate lists with former people from the CIA, the State Department or what the Russians would call deeper state and siloviki, in order to be reliable beyond all allegations of left-wing radicalism. In any case, the division in the USA is not only between the Trump fans, Republicans and Democrats, but also polarized within the parties. To what extent new compromises are even possible and under what conditions remains to be seen.
Biden first set up a council of experts to fight the Covid crisis and promises to end Trump’s loose corona policy, which has now led to 250,000 deaths. Science must rule again. The news after the election that Pfizer and Biontech likely discovered a vaccine helps Biden. There is now a certain optimism among the population and on the stock exchanges that the Covid crisis could perhaps be over next year and Trump speaks of a conspiracy by the Democrats, the FDA and Pfizers to withhold the news to prevent his re-election. However, the head of the FDA was appointed by Trump.
In terms of foreign policy, Biden’s election victory means for Europe that things are going to be more relaxed in transatlantic relations and the attempts to smash or weaken the EU on the part of the PRC and its 16 plus 1 group of states or Putin’s support for the National Front or right-wing groups is no longer supplemented by the USA with threats of trade wars, questioning NATO and support for Brexit, but Biden is relying on good old transatlantism, although Europe has to make some concessions to the USA that the Trumpists cannot proclaim this as Biden’s treason. However, it remains to be seen what Biden wants in terms of foreign policy: It would be possible, as under Obama, to resume negotiations on two free trade blocs against China, the transatlantic TTIP and the transatlantic TPP, accompanied militarily with a strengthening of NATO and the EU in Europe and as well as the Quad as the new Asian NATO in Asia (although India would probably not join such a US-led alliance due to its strategic autonomy, as Trump forcefully wanted to get Russia in a anti-Chinese G11) and politically with Biden`s propagated Alliance of Democracies, which has already been promoted by Albright as a Community of Democracies and by John Mc Cain as the League of Democracies, but like Ivo Daalder´s Global NATO only became pipe dreams, especially since critics believe that Biden is only admitting value-liberal and democratic members in an Alliance of Democracies, is a wrong approach as the USA also needs non-democratic states like Vietnam, Egypt, Saudi Arabia or Turkey in the conflict with China and Russia.
One must also not forget that it were precisely these multilateral free trade areas, which meant de-industrialization, a lowering of labor, consumer protection and environmental standards, marginal growth effects as well as non-state jurisdiction courts, that were a major reason why Trump was elected with his America First, especially as well Bernie Sanders pursued a similar economic protectionist policy towards TTIP and free trade, including a trade war against China. In Germany, too, there were the largest demonstrations since the peace movement with the anti-TTIP demonstration with 250,000 people in Berlin. It was not the left-wing opponents of the TTIP who prevented it, but Trump with his rejection of multilateral free trade areas in favor of bilateral trade wars and agreements.
To what extent Biden can make a simple reset to multilateral free trade is questionable. The first point in his agenda beyond a Covid plan is that he wants to go back to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which, like the EU, is also planning a New Green Deal and is shared by most of the world. . In any case, Biden is under closer scrutiny from Trump and the Republicans as to whether he will simply reinstate the Iran deal. Although Biden might perhaps withdraw the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem and the annexation of the West Bank to Israel, and again propagate the two-state solution, he can´t ignore Trump’s undoubted successes in recognizing diplomatic relations with Israel on the part of some Muslim countries as the UAE, Bahrain or Sudan, as well as his insistence that there only can be an Iran deal if it includes the stop of Iran´s expansion in the Shiite Crescent, its missile programs and terrorist support. Likewise China. Biden will probably not escalate the trade war and maybe stop the rhetoric of the China virus, but the Global Times only sees a possible short-term relaxation in order to see a greater challenge from the Biden USA in the medium and long term due to human rights, value orientation and multilateralism. There will no longer be the old engagement policy towards China, but at best congagement and, under the watchful eye of the Trumpists and Republicans, who will immediately shout out, if Biden should, in their view, be too peaceful towards China.
It remains to be seen whether Biden’s policy towards Russia is only rhetorically more offensive or is accompanied by specific new sanctions and military measures. But Russia’s hopes for a Trump deal have not been fulfilled either. To what extent Biden will be as tough as Trump on the 2% benchmark of the NATO, Northstream, remains to be seen. It also remains to be seen whether he will rate New Start, arms control higher than human rights and Navalny. But Trump wanted Russia in a G11 coalition against China, even back in the G7, but this quick-start method was viewed as sympathetic by Russia, but Putin never wanted to commit himself to such one-sided and short-term commitments against China as long as he didn’t know what concretely, the US has to offer more than nice compliments from Trump to Putin in return. After the Trump-USA also rejected the Russian proposal to extend the New Start talks by 1 year and Putin threatened at the Valda Club to enter into a military alliance with China and not to speak out against China’s arming in the ICBM area and otherwise, it remains to be seen how the Biden-USA will react on New Start.
The “Partnership in Leadership” promised to Germany in the early 1990s was already wanted by Bush Sr., but that never happened, as with Global NATO. The Biden-USA will bring this back to Germany and from Steinmeier, Merkel, Maas to Kramp-Karrenbauer all emphasize that Germany and Europe have to take „more responsibility“ and a bigger role, but to make it clear to the population that security costs more, that you get something for it, but at the same time dampening fears that this will not undermine the social balance in the long term, that no new disaster wars like the Iraq war in 2003 or the NATO war against Libya are planned, no ruinous new arms race and the outbreak of the New Cold War will happen, may require some persuasion.
It was also not only Trump who had declared NATO „obsolete“, but also Macron, who called it „brain dead“ and also questioned the defense guarantee for Eastern Europe, as well as he demanded European sovereignty, also militarily and under a leading role of France as well as rapprochement with Russia as a balance power against China. To what extent the Biden and Macron programs get along, to what extent this affects intra-European relations and also the Franco-German axis, how the European pillar will be shaped in NATO, are the next points to be clarified. In addition, the foreign and geopolitical challenges for the transatlantic alliance must be clarified without spreading defeatist fears in the population of being overwhelmed, promoting imperial overstretch and the decline of the West and the Occident. In short, a giant task and in 2024 there could occur another transatlantic backlash.