After Trump´s storm on Capitol Hill, the inauguration of US President Biden and his administration, during the storm by Navalny supporters, China again issued a warning against Taiwan which was met by the US administration with the assurance that the USA would defend Taiwan in a conflict. The Global Times however tries to make clear that the Biden administration should go back to the 1-China-principle and Tsai Yingwen stick to the 1992 consensus, otherwise an armed conflict was likely.

“Only with the one-China principle in place can the Taiwan Straits avoid miscalculation:Global Times editorial

By Global Times Published: Jan 25, 202

The Chinese mainland conducted a series of aircraft exercises in the southwest airspace of the island of Taiwan on Saturday and Sunday, sending 13 and 15 fighter jets respectively in the two days, many of which were main combat aircrafts of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The Taiwan authorities are feeling the pressure, and the US State Department had issued a statement, urging the Chinese mainland to „cease pressure against“ the island while reaffirming its commitment to the island. However, the juxtaposition of the three China-US joint communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act and the six assurances mentioned in the US statement this time differs from the Trump administration’s refusal to mention the three joint communiqués in his later period.

Why did the PLA send fighter jets to the island for large-scale near-Taiwan exercises at the beginning of the Biden administration? Interpretations by analysts in neither the US nor the island are reliable. In fact, it is normal for PLA fighters to fly around the island and across the so-called middle line of the Taiwan Straits. The US‘ Taiwan policy is also continuing with inertia, with no sign of adjustment being made at present. The whole situation is in the atmosphere and rhythm that had been formed previously.

The Biden administration is expected to bring some fresh air, but there is little evidence to support that expectation across the Taiwan Straits. The frame of reference by which analysts can use to interpret the specific actions is full of confusion and uncertainty, so it is difficult to guarantee that the interpretations will not deviate from the actual situation.

As a matter of fact, the basic framework for mutual understanding between China and the US has already been damaged. There are more and more areas where the two sides cannot understand each other, and the probability of each other’s strategic miscalculation is increasing. For example, China may wonder what the recent activities by the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier in the South China Sea meant, while the US may think about why the PLA fighters were conducting exercises near the island of Taiwan at this particular juncture? China will then wonder what the US means by issuing such a statement so soon. When the PLA’s fighter jets flew into the southwest airspace of the island on Sunday, what would the US think of it and how would it react?

It is unlikely that the Taiwan authorities would change its stubborn policy of relying heavily on the US to resist the Chinese mainland; and it is undoubtedly that the mainland has the fastest-increasing force to dominate the situation across the Taiwan Straits. If Taiwan regional leader Tsai Ing-wen and her likes keep place their bets on the US‘ increasing support, and if the Biden administration follows former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s extreme operations, the situation across the Taiwan Straits is doomed to deteriorate. It is at the least that the PLA fighters will fly to the southwest airspace of the island. Sooner or later, these fighters will appear over the island of Taiwan.

If the tension across the Taiwan Straits is to be eased, we must return to its deteriorating starting point, which is the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities in Taiwan refusing to recognize the 1992 Consensus and opposing the one-China principle. All tensions across the Taiwan Straits originate from the DPP authorities‘ perverse act. And this is in contradiction with the US establishment’s general direction in controlling the situation in the Taiwan Straits, and is also incompatible with the three China-US joint communiqués. If the US places its China policy on the basis of the DPP authorities‘ reckless moves, which obviously have a trend of Taiwan secessionism, then it will bear long-term and cumulative strategic risks. 

The easing of the tension in the Taiwan Straits should start from the political point of view. It cannot reach a breakthrough through strategy. The interaction among the Chinese mainland, the US and the island of Taiwan has been broken in all directions and is difficult to repair. In the later period of the Trump administration, the situation across the Taiwan Straits actually reached the edge of collapse. If the Biden administration does not want the situation to get out of control or get itself seriously involved, they should sent out a clear political signal to distinguish themselves from the previous administration’s mischief, and restore the controllability of the Taiwan Straits on the basis of the one-China principle. 

The danger is that Tsai has been in power for five years. Many American people have already forgotten the changes in the Taiwan Straits caused by Tsai and the DPP authorities. All the radical US public opinion remembers is the subsequent conflicts on the Taiwan question. The US has won Tsai, an active pawn to control China. And to a greater extent, Washington is already kidnapped by Tsai. The Biden administration has a very professional diplomatic team. Hopefully they can clarify the boundaries and importance of the US interests on the Taiwan question, and restore Washington’s strategic sobriety.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1213797.shtml

In this situation, some nationalistic Chinese compatriots think out- of -the- box scenarios about reunification with Taiwan. Chinese compatriot Chen Guodong already 3 years ago issued a plan to reconquer Taiwan with short range rockets. Now our Chinese Douhet has come up with another plan we want to publish here. The idea is that North Korea should use its rocket arsenal as China´s proxy to attack Taiwan and bring reunification and in return, China would lift the UN sanctions against North Korea. By this North Korea would solve its economic problems and upgrade its political role in East Asia. However, is that realistic or not funny out of the box thinking? North Korea wants not a war with the USA about Taiwan, as it would mean its self-destruction. A war with the USA would be much more disastrous than the sanctions. When North Korea abolished its own goal. of reunification with South Korea, so why play the proxy for Chinese reunification plans for Taiwan? Too risky and the sanctions are not incentive enough. And I guess the CPChina also wouldn´t support such highly adventurous plans.

Regarding his person Chen Guodong gave us the following selfdescripotion:

„I (Chen Guodong)am neither an officer nor a soldier. I am an ordinary teacher in a private college (three-year system) in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China. My research was carried out in my spare time, and I did not receive a cent of funding or remuneration from the government, military, or school. Few professors at Peking University and Tsinghua University in China can publish a book in the United States. For example, the „Two bombs and one star“ are critical to China, but they have no academic value. Most of China’s achievements have only engineering value and economic value, and are the result of imitation, without academic value. China is imitating the United States from the organization of its armed forces to the development and procurement of weapons and equipment, as well as combat regulations. Professor Liu Mingfu is an expert in the field of political thought. He is not involved in combat and military strategy. There are no high-level military strategy scholars or experts in the Chinese military. Because in March 2017, I published my first military book in the United States. Professor Liu Mingfu invited me to stay in his home during the International Book Fair in Beijing at the end of August. After he had a long talk with me, he decided that I must have a way to attack Taiwan, and insisted that I write another book, Attacking Taiwan, and publish it in the United States immediately after writing it. I am a moderate, and I am not a member of the Communist Party of China. I have no opinion on Taiwan’s democratically elected government (I do not support Taiwan’s independence). Professor Liu Mingfu is a good friend of mine, and I finally agreed to help write a book on the attack on Taiwan. In fact, in the book, I praised the Kuomintang army, and at the same time criticized the mainland government’s major mistakes. There are also five social improvement projects in Mainland China. The Central Military Commission of China selected this book that I wrote, so I didn’t care about my criticisms and social reform proposals in the book, and changed to someone else who was already in prison. My knowledge and understanding of the military comes from nearly 50 years of interest, self-study and talent. I am 55 years old this year. I am not not involved in Chinese military secrets, and there is no issue of confidentiality. From a professional perspective, I understand the vast majority of military secrets in the world, just as intelligence personnel mainly obtain information through public media. When I look at the topographic map of the South China Sea, I know that the focus of China-US competition in the South China Sea is the US harassment of Chinese nuclear submarines. I look at satellite cloud pictures and the state of the Pacific Ocean. I also know the waters where the US ballistic missile nuclear submarine is located. Almost every day, China sends anti-submarine aircraft to the airspace southwest of Taiwan, targeting underwater US nuclear submarines. In a formal conflict, the anti-submarine aircraft needs fighter escort. Therefore, China’s daily dispatch of planes to the southwest airspace of Taiwan for training has nothing to do with the recovery of Taiwan. North Korea is not China’s war agent. North Korea only fights for its own interests and the interests of the Kim Jong Un family. North Korea has the ability and a strong desire to get out of its predicament, while the Chinese ruling party lacks the strong desire to regain Taiwan. If you are proficient in Chinese, you may know the story of Song Xianggong in the Spring and Autumn Period and the story of Song Gaozong in the Southern Song Dynasty. The Chinese ruling team is not very willing to regain Taiwan, and blindly believes that „time and situation“ are always on the side of the mainland. In fact, they were possessed by Song Xianggong and Song Gaozong at the same time. Intervention in the Taiwan issue is the only opportunity for North Korea to get out of its predicament while retaining nuclear weapons; however, the self-esteem of the Chinese government, military, and nation will be severely hit; the Chinese are opposed to North Korea doing so. However, in the past 18 years, has North Korea accepted China’s advice or warning? North Korea has hydrogen bombs and intercontinental ballistic missiles, and other countries are afraid of them. In fact, as long as North Korea launches an intermediate-range ballistic missile to Taiwan, the Chinese Rocket Force on standby will immediately be ordered to cut off Taiwan’s power supply in order to restore China’s face. In addition, Taiwan’s „asymmetric strategy“, especially in the application of drones, should finally understand the correct method and selection. In the past, when the mainland became angry, Taiwan was afraid. The long-range low-cost UAV can be launched against the mainland’s ballistic missiles. Soon, Taiwan will not be afraid of intimidation by the mainland. The situation has become very complicated, and it is all caused by the senior leaders in mainland China.“

However, Chen Guodong is part of the Chinese school of China´s military rise whose main thinker is Liu Mingfu, author of the programmatic book The China dream.

Colonel (ret.) Liu Mingfu (刘明福) is a retired Chinese PLA officer and noted Chinese author, public speaker and hawkish military commentator. As the author of the well-known nationalist book China Dream: The Great Power Thinking and Strategic Positioning of China in the Post-American Era, Liu argues that China should displace theUnited States as the world leader. Liu advocates that China’s pursuing a „military rise“ will allow it to rival and then surpass America’s role as a source of global order, in an Olympic-style competition between civilizations. The China dream : Great power thinking & strategic posture in the post-American era examines the inherent conflict in U.S.- China relations and the coming „duel of the century“ for economic, military, and cultural dominance in the world. Written by a veteran Chinese military specialist and scholar, The China Dream defines a national strategy to restore China to its historical glory and take the United States‘ place as the world leader. First published in Beijing in 2010, The China Dream provoked international debate with its controversial vision of a world led by China. Now available in English, this is the definitive book for understanding the „hawk“ version of China’s national destiny debate and is essential for understanding China’s strategic goals in the 21st century. Liu is most well known for his book China Dream, and also for the thoughts associated with it. The work does not predict inevitable conflict with the United States, but advocates China deterring the U.S.: „China’s military rise is not to attack America, but to make sure that China is not attacked by America,“ Liu says. China must thus pursue a „military rise with Chinese characteristics that is defensive, peaceful, limited, necessary, important and urgent.“ William A. Callahan, a professor at the London School of Economics, says „rather than the win-win solutions suggested by both, The China Dream sees [international relations] as a zero-sum-game where victory and defeat are total.“

Liu’s book and thinking on China’s power is part of a large debate in the country, centered on the question of what a China-led world order would look like. Some high-profile military personnel in China, including Major General Luo Yan, have raised questions about Liu Mingfu’s analysis—pointing out, for example, the vast gulf between the current state of China’s armed forces, and the state they would need to reach in Liu’s vision of a China-led global order.

Western observers have described the book as a challenge to the United States role as a dominant power. In an apparent effort to diffuse American concerns about China as a challenger, Liu told ABC News, „there is no need for the American public to be afraid of China,“ adding that it’s „impossible and unnecessary for China’s military to surpass the United States.“

Observers noted that the forward to the book was penned by Lieutenant General Liu Yazhou, son-in-law of former top Party official Li Xiannian who by Western China expert was perceived as a Chinese “Young Turk”. This „suggests that at least one politically connected senior officer is willing to associate himself with the author’s views,“ and the book’s advertising in China heavily played up this official imprimatur. Liu Mengfu is also a propagator for a „Chinese exceptionalism“.Liu has advocated for China to „be ready to become the world’s helmsman,“ in part because „China possesses a superior cultural gene needed to become the world’s leader.

Liu Yazhou in 2010 was promoted by deputy political commissar of the PLA Air Force, to political commissar of NDU, the premier academic and defense research institute in China. Prior to that Liu was the director of the political division of the Beijing Military Region, the political commissar of the Chengdu Military Region’s Air Force, and the deputy political commissar of the PLA Air Force.

Liu Yazhou made headlines in the West in 2010 when he made a series of public remarks about democracy in China. „Democracy is the most urgent; without it there is no sustainable rise. Ideals of democracy are not restricted by national borders, or by historical ones,“ he said in August 2010, in an article in the Hong Kong magazine Phoenix Weekly.

Remarks like this led to Liu gaining a reputation as an „outspoken“ and „reformist“ general.

„‚If a system fails to let its citizens breathe freely and release their creativity to the maximum extent, and fails to place those who best represent the system and its people into leadership positions, it is certain to perish,“ he wrote.

In an alleged internal speech in August 2013, Liu argues that reforms in China are now in „deep water“ and that the country can no longer „cross the river by feeling for stones,“ as Party patriarch Deng Xiaoping put it in the early period of growth of the 1990s. Liu suggests that further reforms require political change, and ultimately even competitive election.

Liu’s hawkishness can also differ from the more explicitly militarized claims of propaganda figures like Dai Xu and Zhang Zhaozhong. In an essay titled “The Grand National Strategy“ written in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attack, Liu argued against taking advantage of the fallout of the attack to attempt to conquer Taiwan. He advocated „diplomacy over fighting,“ and suggested the exploitation of Taiwan’s political system over strongarm tactics. For this, analyst Alfred Chan calls him a „nationalist and a realist.“

As Liu Mengfu, General Liu Yazhou was seen as a modern thinker in the Chinese military. Alfred Chan ( Jamestown Foundatio wrote in his article „A Young Turk in China´s Establishment: The Military Writings of Liu Yazhou“

(Jamestown Foundation, China Brief, Volume 5,Issue 19, September 13, 2005)

„Democracy, he argues in „Conversation with a Secretary of a County Party Committee”, is a demand, a way of expression, an exchange process and a way to resolve problems. Rules, fairness, and citizen consciousness, the prerequisites of democracy, all have to be cultivated. Rampant corruption is the greatest political challenge and a dictatorial system based on the monopoly of power is itself fertile ground for corruption. In contrast to Asia`s other rising power, Liu notes that China´s poor are not only deprived of adequate food and clothing but they do not even have the vote. The oppressed peasantry, Liu continues, which poses the greatest challenge to communist orthodoxy, must be thoroughly liberated and turned into citizens able to engage in active political participation. If political reform is further delayed, revolution from below may occur, he warns in “Conversation”. As a military officer Liu Yazhou´s free airing of provocative views on both foreign and domestic issues, especially his call for political reform and the freedom of expression, is unprecedented. Though a realist, a nationalist and a hardliner against Japan, Liu´s moderate views contrast sharply with those who still preach “people´s war” or the use of nuclear weapons. In his calls for new thinking and introspection, Liu represents military young Turks dissatisfied with the civilian leadership´s inability to deal with corruption and social crisis. Fears of praetorian intervention in civilian politics may be exaggerated, but the issues Liu raises are real indeed.”

In his artcile  “China´s Changing Military Ideology” Dr. Frank Zhou comments on Alfred Chan´theory of the Young Truks faction in the Chinese military:

„Are we going to see more Young Turks? In an article published in China Brief 2005, Alfred Chan described Lieutenant Liu Yazhou as a “Young Turk” in China´s military establishment. Chan marveled at opinions and thinking expressed through writings and speeches by a group of Chinese military strategists under new military Khan, Hu Jintao, and called them “unprecedented” and wondered if such phenomen is a harbinger of major changes in China´s military ideology and whether a new paradigm will emerge in China´s discourse on international configuration and power allignement. Young Turks is a name given in the 20^th century to the Ottomans who tried to rejunenate the Turkish empire, and bring it more into line with European ideas as opposed to Old Turks who were against such ideals. It can also refer to any group of young and relatively young men full of new ideas and impatient for change, especially radical or “progressive” element in a political party. In applying this term, Chan is making the assumption, that there is a group of Young Turks within the Chinese military, which may represent this new ideology and therefore are worth following, if one wants to wade through the murky streams of Chinese political and military apparatus(…)

Too many young Turks of Qiao Liang´s and Liu Yazhou´s kind may pose a mixed prospect for the Unites States: they are more progressive, democratic and open-minded, which may contribute to China´s eventual political reform, but they are also producing strategies that can create more difficulties for the US if there was an inevitable confrontation.”

Frank Zhou examined the cases of three senior military officers in the People’s Liberation Army, which he regards as examples of innovative and free-thinking, but none of which were further promoted by the party leadership and the army leadership, probably to prevent the seeds from sprouting too far. While the innovative thinking of Lieutenant General Li Jijun and Colonel Qiao Liang, the author of „Unrestricted Warfare“, was limited to a renewal of military warfare, Liu Yazhou also had political thinking in the direction of political reforms, but it was different was perceived:

„Liu crossed the thin line seperating politics and military affairs in his book Great Power Strategy(…) Instead of perceiving the US as an enemy, Liu tried to identify what has made the United States a great power and called for learning from and maintaining a good relationship with Washington. He also claimed that for China to sustain its economic development and join the club of superpowers, Beijing must not resort to force to unify with Taiwan, and instead should have a coherent policy to develop the Great West, and begin political reforms as soon as possible.

Liberal Chinese intellectuals see Liu as a visionary who can lead China out of the desert of Marxism and Leninism, establish a sensible policy with the West, achieve mutual understanding and reconciliation with Taiwan, and build a new military that will support China´s effort to transform its government into one with accountability and choices. Conservatives perceive him as the ultimate gravedigger for the CCP and should be dismissed from military and incarcerated if possible. Yet a third group believes that China

has suffered horrendously when the military aggressively and arbitrarily intervenes in civilian affairs and as a general Liu is not supposed to delve into domestic politics and offer recommendations on developmental and political reform policies. Since Liu´s writing began to circulate widely on the Internet in April 2004, there has been a deluge of debates on both his admirable strength as a great Chinese thinker and his evil plan to undercut the CCP and turn it over to the conniving lords in Washington. It appears that Liu has suffered a setback in his career when he missed the chance of promotion to a three-star general(the highest rank in the PLA)last year when many believed he was a shoo-in for the Position of Political Commissar of the PLA Academy of Military Science. Again one will never know if his olive branch to Taiwan or his broodings of transforming the military from a Party tool into a state institution has hurt his chances, but it is still too early to say the sun will never rise for General Liu as he is still six years away from the dreadful threshold of sixty when no promotion is possible.”

These authors and militaries however have been perceived by the CP China and the PLA as out-of-the-box-thinker and their writings may have influenced the ongoing modernization of the Chinese military and its strategy only partly, if at all. However, here is Chen Guodong´s article:

陈国栋

North Korea has a way to completely get rid of international sanctions

CHEN GUODONG

January 22, 2021

Summary: If North Korea replaces the Chinese Rocket Force with intermediate-range ballistic missiles and helps China regain Taiwan , North Korea can immediately get rid of international sanctions.  More than 70 years ago, China sent troops to North Korea to save the North Korean regime, leading the United States to send troops to protect Taiwan in retaliation against China .  Today, since the top Chinese leaders are in a situation where they do not know how to choose between regaining Taiwan and repairing Sino-US relations, the North Korean comrades helping China regain Taiwan are considered a reward. Even so, China does not owe North Korea anything.  However, China had to completely withdraw from the UN sanctions against North Korea in order to show its gratitude.  China is a key section in the United Nations sanctions against North Korea .  When China withdraws, the sanctions will naturally be lifted.  In addition, North Korea may have other big gains.

About the author: Chen Guodong, a non-partisan Chinese scholar, moderate nationalist, published in the United States in March 2017, „WILL THE U.S.A. BE REPLACED BY JAPAN?——The Immediate Completion of Japanese Underwater Military Revolution”. Commissioned by Liu Mingfu, a professor at Beijing National Defense University and author of „Chinese Dream“, the author independently formulated a plan to attack Taiwan . „ THE MAIN ATTACK PROGRAM OF ROCKET ARMY：THE NEW THINKING OF CHINA ’S ZERO CASUALTIES REGAINING TAIWAN “ was published in the United States in May 2018. On June 22, 2018, the book was delivered to the Central Military Commission of China by an old friend in the military of Colonel Liu Mingfu. The Chinese military reprinted it in large numbers. Six months later, the book became the Chinese military’s internal plan for attacking Taiwan . At the same time, the book is one of the main factors that contributed to the U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

None of the Chinese senior officials have a thorough understanding of the book, and they still believe that the „time and strength“ of the reunification of China and Taiwan is always on the side of mainland China . No one in the bureaucracy understands the new type of warfare. The „THE MAIN ATTACK PROGRAM OF ROCKET ARMY “ can only be published in the United States . What is the „strength“ of the Chinese bureaucracy? If the „Rocket Army’s main attack plan“ is a „spear“, what is the effective „shield“ of the opponent? The Rocket Force’s advantage is only short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles. The United States withdraws from the „Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty“ and relaxes restrictions on the range of South Korean and Japanese missiles. The Chinese Rocket Force’s advantage is temporary. Senior Chinese officials were confused and said that the „strength“ is always on their side. The same goes for „Time“. The „Rocket Army’s main attack plan“ has a time window, and its premise is that the opponent does not preemptively. The other side can use „immediately and unconditionally realize the peaceful reunification of the two sides of the strait“ to crack any „armed reunification plan.“ The other side also has the ability to quickly produce drones and cruise missiles. If it works three shifts a day, it will have the ability to attack the mainland in two weeks, and the „time“ is not always on the mainland. The book clearly pointed out that the era of a new type of warfare has come. The characteristics of the new type of warfare are low-cost, unmanned, and long-range precision strikes. There will be confrontations between drones and long-range missiles. This low-cost, low-tech model of unmanned warfare enables a small country or an industrial enterprise to destroy any major country, including the United States and mainland China . China ’s military expenditure is 15 times that of the local authorities in Taiwan , which does not give mainland China an advantage. From 2008 to the end of 2018, mainland China ’s only military advantage was short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles. This advantage is about to disappear. The time window for all mainland China to regain Taiwan is very narrow.

The core of „ THE MAIN ATTACK PROGRAM OF ROCKET ARMY：THE NEW THINKING OF CHINA’S ZERO CASUALTIES REGAINING TAIWAN “ is to use at least 27 short-range ballistic missiles to destroy the step-up substations of 27 large power plants in Taiwan, cut off 94% of Taiwan’s electricity supply, and plunge all local cities into Paralyzed, Taiwan had to surrender within 1 to 2 weeks and reunite with mainland China.

On the one hand, China ’s military advantage is limited and short-lived. On the other hand, the United States , which has frequently humiliated China , has fallen into epidemic, economic, and political chaos. In mid-January 2021, the United States is at its weakest time in history. However, the Chinese government, which has recovered from the pandemic, does not judge the situation objectively, does not calmly judge its own strength, and chooses strategic goals irrationally. The Chinese government is trying to achieve national reunification and repair Sino-US relations at the same time. In fact, the local authorities in Taiwan have the ability and methods to quickly defeat mainland China in terms of peaceful reunification and reunification by force, as long as the leader of the Taiwan authorities is not stupid. Mainland China is actually afraid of peaceful reunification, because the content of peaceful negotiations may shake the mainland’s political system. Once the peaceful reunification of the two sides of the strait is initiated, the mainland will fall into complete passivity. Iran ’s precision ballistic missile attack on U.S. military bases in Iraq and the drone war between Azerbaijan and Armenia have all confirmed that a new mode of war has emerged. Taiwan ’s technical level and industrial capacity for designing and producing drones and cruise missiles are significantly higher than that of Turkey . Within a few months, Taiwan can produce Predator A-class military drones with a range of more than 3,000 kilometers, and the production number can reach 100,000. After half a year, the production quantity will reach more than 300,000. After removing the landing gear, satellite transmitting and receiving antenna, and photoelectric detection equipment, this type of UAV adopts catapult to take off and can carry more than 100 kilograms of high explosives. With frontal intensive penetration (consuming the opponent’s air defense missiles), mainland China has no way to effectively intercept it, which is enough to completely paralyze the Chinese economy.

Mainland China is very afraid of peaceful reunification, and even more afraid of military reunification. The Trump administration messed up and was replaced by the Biden Administration. The U.S. political system remains unchanged. Peaceful reunification may severely impact the current political system in mainland China . Once the military reunification fails, the status of the mainland’s political system may not be preserved. The mainland is only willing to choose a zero-risk attack plan, that is, the rocket army’s main attack plan, but the limited period of this plan is very short. „ THE MAIN ATTACK PROGRAM OF ROCKET ARMY：THE NEW THINKING OF CHINA ’S ZERO CASUALTIES REGAINING TAIWAN “ was published in the United States in May 2018. It has been two and a half years. Is the opponent a fool and can’t find a solution? Taiwan is the most valuable pawn in the competition between major powers. The government of the United States , will not cede Taiwan to China . The top Beijing officials actually imagined that they could negotiate with the Biden government! China and the United States are not in the same class. One is a coyote and the other is a lion. There is no need for the lion to compromise with the coyotes. If the mainland China chooses to drag on forever, it will immediately lose its legitimacy in governing. The main body of the new type of warfare is scholars and senior engineers, and the era of “Political power comes from the barrel of a gun” is over. At present, the mystery of the new type of war is in the hands of moderate nationalists, who do not support any radical or extreme policies. Once the mystery of the new type of warfare is learned by liberal scholars, China ’s existing political system will be unable to maintain it. To regain Taiwan immediately, the existing political system can be supported by moderate nationalists for a long time. In addition to low-cost, low-tech unmanned warfare, new types of warfare come in many styles, which are beyond the understanding of senior officials in China ’s current political system.

Since mainland China ignores the extremely limited time window for regaining Taiwan . North Korea faces a golden opportunity of a lifetime. North Korea can get rid of all international sanctions and international isolation in one fell swoop.

After North Korea ’s military parade again at night, if they continue to use medium-range ballistic missiles to accurately attack Taiwan ’s 27 large power plants at night to help mainland China implement the rocket army’s main attack plan and subdue Taiwan , the Taiwan authorities will surrender and give up their ruling status. Taiwan had to be reunified with mainland China , and North Korea became the benefactor and savior of the Chinese nation and the Chinese government. Then North Korea used this to demand that the China completely withdraw from the various sanctions imposed by the United Nations on North Korea and demand that China provide large-scale economic assistance. How can the Chinese government and military refuse it? The key section or the only section in the economic sanctions imposed by the United Nations on North Korea lies in China . China has basically maintained its economic sanctions on North Korea , with only a slight relaxation. 2021 is 360 years of Zheng Chenggong’s recovery of Taiwan . If North Korea is the first to help China regain Taiwan , shouldn’t the Chinese nation at least thank North Korea for 360 years and provide North Korea with tens of billions of dollars in aid every year? More than 70 years ago, China sent troops to North Korea to save the North Korean Communist regime, leading the United States to send troops to protect Taiwan in retaliation against China . Today, since the Chinese leaders are troubled by their thinking and interests, the North Korean comrades helping China to regain Taiwan are considered a reward. The ruling party, government, and military in China need not feel shameless.

The distance from the launch site near the estuary of the Yalu River to northern Taiwan is 1,700 kilometers, and the distance to southern Taiwan is 2,080 kilometers. North Korea has mature short-range, medium-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, which have been tested in large numbers.

The core of the Rocket Army’s main attack plan is to completely cut off Taiwan ’s power supply within 10 minutes, rather than destroying Taiwan ’s power generation facilities. If North Korea ’s medium-range ballistic missiles were not hit with high accuracy, and instead of cutting off Taiwan ’s power supply, they destroyed Taiwan ’s 27 power plants, then, 58% of the world’s chip production capacity would be interrupted for more than one year. The entire world economy will be severely affected. At that time the United States would plead with North Korea . The United States had to sign an agreement to officially end the Korean War, withdraw its troops from South Korea , and establish diplomatic relations with North Korea .

If North Korea suppresses China and the United States in one fell swoop, all the propaganda of the three generations of North Korean leaders will be visionary and immortal prophecies. Of course, North Korea will never need to give up nuclear weapons. South Korea and Japan have to openly possess nuclear weapons. Japan has long secretly mastered complete military nuclear technology. Every country has the right to peaceful use of nuclear energy, as well as the right to develop nuclear weapons.

From now on, the hegemony of East Asia will obviously be North Korea . If you don’t want something God gives you, you will be punished by God. If the above-mentioned new order emerges in East Asia , it is only because of the abnormal understanding and judgment of the Chinese ruling team that they have been frightened by Trump’s extreme pressure. China took back Taiwan , and 58% of the world’s chip production capacity was controlled by China . At that time, the United States could not be tough. Once Chinese leaders come back to their senses, they will understand this simple truth. The United States has a knife in its hand, and China should be afraid of it with its bare hands. Taking back Taiwan is equivalent to taking the knife from the United States . When the United States is in the most difficult time of the epidemic, economy, domestic and international politics, Chinese senior officials choose to keep a low profile and not to regain their most precious core interests. Chinese leaders are not tough when they should be tough! China ’s passivity and humiliation in its relations with the US are caused by its own incompetence and cowardice. How to strengthen oneself, how to effectively deal with Europe and the United States , „ THE MAIN ATTACK PROGRAM OF ROCKET ARMY：THE NEW THINKING OF CHINA ’S ZERO CASUALTIES REGAINING TAIWAN “ has detailed analysis and countermeasures.

To preemptively implement the rocket army’s main attack plan against Taiwan , North Korea may have to launch 27 to 100 medium-range ballistic missiles, worth 3 billion U.S. dollars, and North Korea may need some preparation time. However, this is a good deal worth hundreds of billions of dollars. North Korea can strike a few as many as it has, and continue to strike after it is produced, until Taiwan ’s power generation system is completely destroyed. Taiwan ’s existing F-16 fighter jets and Xiongfeng-2E extended-range cruise missiles cannot reach North Korea . „WILL THE USA BE REPLACED BY JAPAN ?-The Immediate Completion of Japanese Underwater Military Revolution“ published in the United States in 2017, was finalized in November 2016. The book was the first in the world to analyze that North Korea ’s low-yield nuclear tests were not dud bombs but hydrogen bombs. Therefore, North Korea is not afraid of the intervention of the United States and China .

„WILL THE USA BE REPLACED BY JAPAN ?-The Immediate Completion of Japanese Underwater Military Revolution“ also analyzes the ethnic groups in Northeast Asia . That is the cradle of a powerful nation. Only the Koreans have not yet become stronger. Now is the time. Destiny is so. Don’t be surprised by other nations.

北朝鲜有办法彻底摆脱国际社会制裁了

中国南京 陈国栋

摘要：北朝鲜如果用中程弹道导弹替代中国火箭军，帮助中国收复台湾，北朝鲜就能立即摆脱国际制裁。70多年前，中国为拯救北朝鲜政权出兵朝鲜，导致美国出兵保护台湾以报复中国。今天，既然中国高层在收复台湾和修复中美关系上陷入不知如何取舍的境地，北朝鲜同志帮助中国收复台湾也算一种回报，即使这样中国也不欠北朝鲜什么。但是，中国不得不全面退出联合国对北朝鲜的制裁，以示感谢。中国是联合国对北朝鲜制裁的关键环节。中国退出，制裁自然就被破除。另外，北朝鲜可能还有其他大的收获。

作者简介：陈国栋，中国无党派民间学者，温和派国家主义者，2017年3月在美国出版《美国会被日本取代吗？——即将完成的日本水下军事革命》。2017年8月24日受北京国防大学教授、《中国梦》作者刘明福大校委托，独立制定并于2018年5月在美国出版《火箭军主攻方案：中国零伤亡收复台湾新思维》，同年6月22日该书被刘明福大校的军中老友送达中国中央军委，中国军方大量翻印，半年后该书成为中国军方内定的攻台方案。同时，该书是促成美国退出《中导条约》的主要因素之一。

中国高层都对该书没有理解透彻，仍然认为中国大陆与台湾统一的“时与势”始终掌握在中国大陆一边。官僚体制内没有人懂新型战争，《火箭军主攻方案》不得不在美国才能出版，中国官僚体制这边有什么“势”？如果“火箭军主攻方案”是“矛”，对方有效的“盾”是什么？火箭军的优势也只是短程、中程弹道导弹，美国退出《中导条约》，并放宽对韩国、日本导弹射程的限制，中国火箭军的优势是暂时的。中国高级官员稀里糊涂，还说“势”始终在自己这边。“时”也同样，“火箭军主攻方案”有时间窗口，它的前提是对方没有先发制人。对岸可以用“立即无条件实现两岸和平统一”破解任何“武统方案”。对方也有能力快速生产无人机和巡航导弹，如果每天三班倒，两周时间就具备与大陆对攻的能力，“时”也不是始终在大陆这边。该书明确指出，新型战争时代已经到来，新型战争特征是低成本、无人化、远程精确打击，会出现无人机、远程导弹之间的对攻。这种低成本、低技术的无人战争模式让一个小国或一家工业企业有能力摧毁任何大国，美国、中国大陆均不例外。中国大陆的军费开支是台湾地方当局的15倍，这并不会给中国大陆增加优势。2008年至2018年底，中国唯一的军事优势是短程、中程弹道导弹，这个优势即将消失，所以中国大陆收复台湾的时间窗口很窄。

《火箭军主攻方案：中国零伤亡收复台湾新思维》的核心是用至少27枚短程弹道导弹摧毁台湾27个大型发电厂的升压变电站，切断台湾94%的电力供应，让高度城市化的台湾生产、生活陷入瘫痪，1至2周内台湾不得不屈服，并与中国大陆统一。

一方面，中国大陆的军事优势是有限的、短暂的。另一方面，频繁羞辱中国的美国陷入疫情、经济、政治混乱，2021年1月中旬的美国处在历史上最虚弱的时候，但是已经恢复元气的中国政府在形势判断、实力判断和战略目标取舍上出现不可思议的迷茫，试图同时实现国家统一和修复中美关系。事实上，台湾地方当局有能力和办法在和平统一、武力统一两方面迅速挫败中国大陆，只要台湾当局领导人不是很笨。中国大陆其实惧怕和平统一，因为和平谈判的内容可能动摇大陆的政治体制。一旦两岸开启和平统一，大陆就会陷入全面被动。阿塞拜疆与亚美尼亚之间的无人机战争、伊朗对美国驻伊拉克军事基地的弹道导弹精确攻击都证实新的战争模式已经出现。台湾设计、生产无人机、巡航导弹的技术水平、工业能力明显高于土耳其。几个月时间内，台湾就可以生产出航程超过3000千米的捕食者A级别的军用无人机，数量可达10万架，半年后可达30万架以上。该型无人机，去除起落架、卫星发射接收天线、光电侦查设备后，采用弹射起飞，可以携带100千克以上的高爆炸药。捕食者A军用无人机是重复使用的，简化为一次性使用的无人机，成本可以明显降低。以正面密集突防（消耗对方防空导弹）方式，中国大陆没有任何办法有效拦截，足以让中国大陆经济完全瘫痪。

大陆很怕和平统一，更怕武统。特朗普政府搞砸了，换拜登政府上台，体制不变。和平统一，可能严重冲击大陆现有体制。武统一旦有闪失，大陆体制的地位可能就可能不保。大陆只愿意选择十拿十稳的攻台方案，即火箭军主攻方案，但该方案的有限期很短。《火箭军主攻方案：中国零伤亡收复台湾新思维》2018年5月在美国出版，二年半了，对方是傻子，找不到应对办法？台湾是大国竞争中最有价值的棋子，任何政府美国不会把台湾让给中国，北京高层居然幻想可以与拜登政府友好协商！中国与美国不是一个等级，一个是土狼，一个是狮子，狮子没有必要向土狼妥协。如果大陆选择一直拖下去，立即就失去执政的合法性。新型战争的主体是学者和高级工程师，枪杆子里面出政权的时代结束了。目前，新型战争的奥秘掌握在温和派国家主义者手里，他们不支持任何激进或极端的政策。一旦新型战争的奥秘被自由派学者获知，体制就无法无力维系。立即收复台湾，体制可以得到温和派国家主义者的长期支持。除了低成本、低技术的无人战争，新型战争还有多种式样，超出了体制允许的理解能力。头戴“鸟笼”的体制与清朝末年的洋务派何其相似！

既然中国大陆无视极为有限的收复台湾的时间窗口。北朝鲜就面临千载难逢的大好机会，北朝鲜可以借此一举摆脱全部国际制裁，并摆脱国际孤立。

北朝鲜再次夜间阅兵后，如果他们接着在夜间用中程弹道导弹精确攻击台湾的27个大型发电厂，帮助中国大陆实施火箭军主攻方案，制服台湾，导致台湾当局投降、放弃执政地位并与中国大陆统一，北朝鲜成为中华民族和中国政府的恩人、救星。然后北朝鲜以此要求中国大陆全面退出联合国对北朝鲜的各种制裁，并要求中国提供大规模经济援助，中国政府和军队如何能够拒绝。联合国对北朝鲜的经济制裁的关键环节或唯一环节在中国，中国至今基本维持对北朝鲜的经济制裁，仅仅略微放宽一点点。2021年是郑成功收复台湾360年。如果北朝鲜先下手帮助中国收复台湾，中华民族是不是应该至少感谢北朝鲜360年，并每年向北朝鲜提供数百亿美元援助。70多年前，中国为拯救北朝鲜共产党政权出兵朝鲜，导致美国出兵保护台湾以报复中国。今天，既然中国高层有思维和利益上的困扰，北朝鲜同志帮助中国收复台湾也算一种回报，中国执政党、政府、军队不必觉得有失颜面。

从鸭绿江入海口附近的发射场到台湾北部的距离是1700公里，到台湾南部的距离是2080公里。北朝鲜拥有成熟的短程、中程和洲际弹道导弹，曾经大量试射。

火箭军主攻方案的核心是10分钟内全面切断台湾电力供应，而不是摧毁台湾发电设施。如果北朝鲜的中程弹道导弹命中精度不够高，不是切断台湾电力供应，而是摧毁了台湾的27个发电厂，那全世界58%的芯片产能就会中断1年以上，整个世界经济都会受到严重影响。那时美国就会恳求北朝鲜。美国不得不签订协定，正式结束朝鲜战争，从韩国撤军，并与北朝鲜建立外交关系。

如果北朝鲜一举抑制住中国和美国2个大国，北朝鲜三代领导人所有的宣传就是远见和不朽的预言。当然，北朝鲜也永远不需要放弃核武器，韩国、日本不得不公开拥有核武器。日本早就暗中掌握的完整的军用核技术。每个国家都拥有和平利用核能的权利，同样也拥有开发核武器的权利。

今后，东亚的霸主显然是北朝鲜。天予弗取，必受其咎；时至不行，反受其殃。东亚如果出现上述结局，仅仅出于中国执政团队的理解力和判断力失常，他们被特朗普的极限施压打怕了，吓傻了。中国收回台湾，世界58%的芯片产能就控制在中国手里，那时美国就厉害不起来了。中国领导人一旦回过神来，就会明白这个简单道理。美国手里有刀，中国赤手空拳，当然应该怕；收回台湾，相当于夺下美国手里的刀。美国在疫情、经济、国内与国际政治最困难的时候，中国高层选择韬光隐晦，不去取回自己最宝贵的核心利益，该厉害的时候不厉害！中国在对美关系中的被动与屈辱，是自身无能和懦弱造成的。如何做强自己，如何与欧美有效应对，《火箭军主攻方案：中国零伤亡收复台湾新思维》里都有详细分析与对策。

抢先对台湾实施火箭军主攻方案，北朝鲜可能要耗费27枚至100枚中程弹道导弹，价值30亿美元，北朝鲜可能需要一段准备时间。但是，这是一本百万利的好买卖，北朝鲜可以先打几枚，生产出来后继续打，直到完全摧毁台湾发电系统。台湾现有的F-16战斗机和雄风-2E增程巡航导弹，都打不到北朝鲜。2017年美国出版的《美国会被日本取代吗？——即将完成的日本水下军事革命》，完稿于2016年11月，该书在世界上最早分析出北朝鲜几次低当量核试验不是哑弹，是氢弹。所以，北朝鲜也不怕美国和中国干预。

《美国会被日本取代吗？——即将完成的日本水下军事革命》同样分析了东北亚各民族。那是盛产强大民族的摇篮，只有朝鲜族尚未强盛过，现在时机到了。天命如此，其他民族不要觉得奇怪。

我（陈国栋），不是军官，也不是军人。我是中国江苏省南京市一所民办college(三年制）的普通教师。我的研究是业余时间开展的，没有从政府、军队和学校得到一分钱经费或报酬。中国北京大学、清华大学，很少有教授能在美国出版学术一部著作。比如，“两弹一星”，对中国很关键，但没有学术价值。中国绝大多数成就都只具有工程价值和经济价值，是模仿的结果，没有学术价值。 中国从武装力量编成，到武器装备研制、采购，以及作战条例，都在模仿美国。 刘明福教授是政治思想领域专家，他不参与作战和军事战略。中国军队内没有高水平的军事战略学者或专家。 因为2017年3月，我在美国出版了第一部军事著作。刘明福教授邀请我去北京参加当年8月底的国际书展期间住在他家。他与我长谈后，他认定我一定有办法攻打台湾，坚持要求我再写一部书，即攻打台湾，并写好后立即到美国出版。我是温和派，我也不是中共党员。我对台湾民选政府没有意见（我不支持台湾独立）。刘明福教授是我的好朋友，我最终同意帮忙写攻打台湾的书。实际上，我在书里盛赞国民党军队，同时大量讽刺批评大陆政府的种种重大失误。书里还有中国大陆五项社会改良方案。中国中央军委选定了我写的这部书，所以不计较我在书里的批评和社会改革建议，换做其他人早就被关在监狱了。 我对军事的了解和理解，来自近50年的兴趣、自学和天分，我今年55岁。我没有涉及中国军事秘密，不存在保密问题。我从专业视角，明白世界上绝大多数军事秘密，就像情报人员也是主要通过公开媒体获取信息一样。我看南中国海地形图，我就知道中美南海竞争的焦点是美国骚扰中国核潜艇。我看卫星云图和太平洋海况，我也知道美国弹道导弹核潜艇所在的水域。中国几乎天天派反潜飞机到台湾西南空域，目标是水下美国核潜艇。正式冲突时，反潜飞机需要战斗机护航。所以，中国天天派飞机到台湾西南空域训练，与收复台湾没有直接关系。 北朝鲜不是中国的战争代理人。北朝鲜只为本国利益和金正恩家族利益而战。北朝鲜有能力、有强烈愿望摆脱困境，而中国执政党缺乏收复台湾的强烈愿望。你精通中文，你也许知道春秋时期宋襄公的故事，以及南宋宋高宗的故事。中国执政团队不是很情愿收复台湾，还盲目认为“时和势”始终在大陆一边。实际上他们被宋襄公和宋高宗同时附体。介入台湾问题，对北朝鲜是摆脱困境同时又能保留核武器的唯一机会；但是，中国政府、军队和民族的自尊心会受到强烈打击；中国人都反对北朝鲜这么做。可是，最近18年，北朝鲜接受过中国的建议或警告吗？北朝鲜有氢弹和洲际弹道导弹，其他国家怕它。 实际上，只要北朝鲜向台湾发射一枚中程弹道导弹，处在待命状态的中国火箭军会立即奉命切断台湾电力供应，以挽回中国的颜面。 另外，台湾在“不对称战略”，特别是在无人机应用上，也应该终于明白正确的方法和选型。过去，大陆一发怒，台湾就怕。远程低成本无人机可以与大陆的弹道导弹展开对攻。很快，台湾就不怕大陆恐吓了。局面变得很复杂，都是中国大陆高层的自己造成的。 以上是我的个人观点。你可以全面引用。 谨致以良好祝愿 陈国栋