In a Global Review interview Dr. Rahr claimed: “I don’t see any Russian plans to reconquer Ukraine, as the Red Army did 100 years ago.” This might be correct as Putin maybe doesn´t want the whole Ukraine, but “only” annex Eastern Ukraine. As always, both sides accuse each other of breaking the July 2020 ceasefire and the Minsk Agreement of 2015. Russia is gathering troops on the border with Ukraine, which, according to the Kremlin, are not threatening anyone. At the same time, Moscow has Russian passports distributed in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The information war is also back in full swing. Russian media spread the news that the Ukrainian military had killed a five-year-old boy in the Donetsk region.
But the Ukrainian President Volodymir Selensky is also partly to blame for the latest developments. He never misses an opportunity to pinprick the Russian side. Not only did he close three pro-Russian television channels, but he also imposed sanctions on the oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, a friend of Putin.. At the same time, Kiev stated that Ukraine should prepare for NATO membership but implement reforms beforehand. This is a joke. The Western defense alliance will not lift a finger for Zelensky. Georgia’s ex-head of state Mikhail Saakashvili also believed that it could be otherwise, before he threw himself into the war against Russia for South Ossetia in 2008. Precisely for this reason, such statements must be called what they are: irresponsible and highly dangerous.
A military expert thinks:
“Putin has three options: 1) Show of forces to “discipline” Zelensky, influence FR and GE, to help him to test the US; 2) Break-ins and occupation of the two breakaway regions with regular Russian forces as “peacekeeping forces” – with the prospect of joining Russia and further destabilization of the UKR; 3) after further reinforcement of a concentric attack with a focus on the South, with the UKR forces in the North / East tied up, creating a land connection to the Crimea – very risky, especially with a view to the unforeseeable but probably far-reaching political consequences, but in the light of the experiences with Putin’s willingness to take risks 2014, if he sees the stability of his regime at risk, cannot be ruled out at the moment.”
While a new Taiwan crisis might be looming, Dr. Rahr said, that Russia is warning of a new Srebrenica in eastern Ukraine. It is possible that a “cry for help” will then be heard. Putin may now annex eastern Ukraine and portray it as a humanitarian intervention. Perhaps with a referendum and then official incorporation ala Crimea. Eastern Ukraine could become New Russia/ Nuovo Russia. Perhaps then there will only be a Western Ukraine as Ukraine. Can a Western Ukraine then become a NATO member or will the US simply build a military base without NATO or will it remain defenseless or will there be a defense pact? However this would be the worst option.Yesterday there was the news that Merkel had a telephone call with Putin. Dr. Rahr has just told us that the Ukrainian General Staff has just declared that it will not launch an offensive against Donbass. Rahr suspects that Merkel has washed Selensky his head properly. That would be a nice happy ending, but first the Russian troops have to be withdrawn from the border before the alleged peace can be trusted.