Next U turn in the Ukrainian crisis: Erdogan as new regional power and peace mediator

Next U turn in the Ukrainian crisis: Erdogan as new regional power and peace mediator

After NATO, the OSCE and the EU were mainly silent on the Ukrainian crisis, Merkel called Putin behind the scenes, Erdogan met with EU represantuives and placed EU- Commision president Urusla von der Leyen on a couch and by this inciting a discussion in the EU wheter EU State Council president Barnier should have let von der Leyen a place on the chair, Erdogan iwants now to demonstrate that he is the real regional power in the Ukraine and Black Sea Region. As Erdogan- Turkey´s economy is in decline and the Turkish lira in free fall, he managed it to get financial help from the EU because of the refugee deal and his new position in Lybia on the new Lybian goverment which he could use for other refugee waves against the EU. After engaging in Syria, Lybia, Azerbeidjan and Northern Iraq, even brokering a peace agreement in Lybia and Syria with Russia, he now intervenes in Ukraine and wants to be the peace mediator for a peaceful Black Sea region:Erdogan is acting on stage and not backstage, meets Selenski, signs a defense cooperation between Ukraine and Turky, while Putin as the West is astonished and the US war ships in the Black Sea are not the decisive factor

During a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart, Vladimir Selenki, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for the conflict in eastern Ukraine to be eased. “We exchanged views on the situation in eastern Ukraine. We believe that the crisis can be resolved through political and diplomatic methods and in accordance with international law. We want the escalation and tensions to be resolved as quickly as possible and peace to be restored within the framework of the Minsk Accords. We are ready to support this process, ”said Erdogan. The OSCE mission, which is monitoring the situation in Donbass, will also continue to support Turkey, said the Turkish President. According to Erdogan, the main goal of Turkey is to preserve the Black Sea as a “sea of ​​peace, calm and stability” and to avoid increasing tensions in the region. The meeting of the heads of state was also about expanding cooperation in the field of defense. According to Selenski, the two states intend to cooperate in the arms sector and in particular in aircraft construction. Kiev has already acquired six Turkish Bayraktar combat drones. The two heads of state also agreed to make travel between the two countries easier. Moscow has already expressed concern about the situation in the conflict region. The press spokesman for the Russian President, Dmitri Peskov, said last Friday that Russia is not a party to the conflict and cannot guarantee a comprehensive ceasefire in Donbass, but is using its own influence to ensure compliance with the agreement.” Wille Russia and Turkey define a new sphere of influence in the Black Sea region and NATO and the EU has no influence or NATO only by NATO partner Turkey? ?Isn´t Putin astonished as the defensive West?

Dr. Rahr points out that the Russian troops are still 250 kilometers from the Ukrainian border as a clear warning for Selenski. However experts thionk that the dimension of the Russian troop mobilization is much too big than just to deter a Urkainan offensive against Donbass. Some experts even thinkl because Putin´s popularity in Russia is at a historic low and the ratings for his party United Russia are bad, he could start an attack on Eastern Ukraine to cause a patriotic and nationalistic mood in the Russian population and by this win support in the coming Russian elections. .Dr. Rahr however thinks that this might be correct, but that Selenski also has popularity problems and could like Saakashvili in Georgia 2008 now with Erdogan´s support and new Turkish drones think he could be so successful like Azerbeidjian was with Turkish support and drones. However it would be suicidal , NATO would not intervene, the EU stay safe on Erdogan´s couch, Turkey would not send troops to Ukraine and Selenski would have lost, before he even starts an attack.

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