The spiral of escalation is turning: Entry ban for Taiwanese politicians to China as part of the Chinese „protracted war“

The spiral of escalation is turning: Entry ban for Taiwanese politicians to China as part of the Chinese „protracted war“

After Chinese fighter jets penetrated Taiwan’s ADIZs, Tsai Yingwen’s statement that US military advisers were in Taiwan and that 40 Taiwanese Marines were training with the US Marines in Guam in homeopathic doses, China allegedly tested a hypersonic weapon that makes the US Missile Defense obsolete (US Chief of Staff Milley spoke of a „Sputnik moment“) and reports are circulating about the armament of China in the area of the ICBMs, China is now imposing an entry ban for Taiwanese politicians to China. The FAZ reports:

“Chinese sanctions: Beijing bans Taiwan top politicians from entering the country for life

By Friederike Böge, Beijing -Updated on 05.11.2021-22: 14

 For alleged „secessionism“, China is sanctioning top Taiwanese politicians with a life-long entry ban. In practice, however, Beijing’s decision is unlikely to have any consequences. China has announced sanctions against Taiwan’s Prime Minister Su Tseng-chang, Speaker of Parliament You Si-kun and Foreign Minister Joseph Wu. You and other „secessionists“ will be denied entry and business activity in China for life, said a spokeswoman for the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing on Friday. A list of people who practiced Taiwan independence had been compiled. Their financial supporters and companies associated with them are no longer allowed to do business in China. Institutions where the sanctioned are working are not allowed to cooperate with organizations in China. The Chinese government spokeswoman also spoke of a criminal investigation without giving any details. In the case of the three politicians mentioned, an entry ban is unlikely to have any consequences. It is hard to imagine that they would travel to China. Taiwan itself limits the travel of public officials to the People’s Republic for reasons of national security. It remained unclear whether the sanctions were new measures. The three named politicians have long been insulted in the Chinese state media as “traitors to the fatherland”.

Visit of an EU delegation angered China

The verbal escalation from Beijing coincides with the first official visit to Taiwan by a delegation from the European Parliament. The MPs met with President Tsai Ing-wen on Thursday. The head of the delegation, the French Raphaël Glucksmann said, “We came here with a very simple and clear message: you are not alone. Europe stands by you ”. Glucksmann is also on a sanctions list in Beijing because of his commitment against the oppression of the Uyghurs. In October the European Parliament passed a resolution in favor of closer relations with Taiwan. Tsai said Taiwan wants to work with the EU on tackling disinformation, among other things. Last week, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu e visited Lithuania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Brussels. Neither country recognizes Taiwan as an independent state.

German China expert Professor van Ess makes it clear that it is not just a matter of symbolic sanctions, as suggested in the article:

“Ms. Böge once again did not understand what it was all about. If you forbid the businessmen, who have contact with sanctioned Taiwanese politicians, to do business with China, things get down to business for them, because for almost all Taiwanese companies doing business with the PRC is absolutely central. That is the absurdity of striving for independence. That´s  not good for the Taiwanese economy. So these business people have to break away from politicians in order to continue to earn money – or to redirect their business to other countries. But that’s not that easy. „

In addition, one wonders what the judicial investigation is supposed to do. Is there a kind of virtual propaganda trial against the Taiwanese politicians with a verdict of treason and death sentence, followed by an arrest warrant at Interpol, or how is that to be understood? And the PLA execute the verdict as a world policeman`Will there be a Chinese Tribunal Nuremberg 2.0, which chooses the national security laws as lawfare. But in the opinion of Professor van Ess, China will not go that far, the following is to be expected:

“No, the Chinese authorities are just looking to see if a Taiwanese entrepreneur is related to a sanctioned politician. If so, then the Chinese company that works with the Taiwanese company happens to have a tax problem. So it doesn’t do business with the Taiwanese anymore, and he thinks three times whether he wants to be associated with a sanctioned Taiwanese politician. „

The CCP wants to threaten a kind of economic war against Taiwan for the time being and drive a rift between the Taiwanese business elite and the DDP, possibly with the threat to expand this to other countries. There is increasing talk of accidental war in the context of the Sino-American conflict, but, this ignores the real question of where the red lines are. It is more important how far the US and Taiwan want to push their pinprick policy: Will the red line be crossed if Taiwan becomes a member of UN organizations such as the WHO, if the US extends its military and political contacts from military advisers to Taiwan, expand joint maneuvers of the marines on Guam, etc? We also recommend the following You Tube video about the Sino-American conflict with Gudrun Wacker (SWP) and Felix Lee:

Gudrun Wacker, whom I held in high esteem at the SWP like Kai Möller at the time, makes a number of important points. Conversely, there is also a question of red lines for the CPC domestically. When will Xi fear that he looses  his absolute power and will face a loss of face and launch a face-saving flight to the front to prevent a return to collective leadership under a backdoor chairman ala Deng? As with Trump and the Republicans: Can somene threaten  Xi´s absolute and  lifelong position in the CCP? In any case, it can be assumed that the Olympic Games in Beijing in 2022 will be another important international test of mood for Beijing , which will also influence its behavior towards Taiwan.

 In the meantime, the German frigate Bavaria, which is supposed to underpin Germany’s Indo-Pacific strategy, has entered Japan: The Bavaria is not welcome in China and does not drive through the Taiwan Strait. In any case, a second ship will be send and the Air Force in Australia, as well as the army’s cyber defense train together with German forces.

„Okaeri – Welcome back, Bavaria“ By Patrick Welter, Tokyo -Updated on 05.11.2021-19: 04

The frigate “Bavaria” has arrived in Tokyo with a large number of German and Japanese teams – and there is arousing high expectations of Germany and Europe. The sun was laughing, the sky was bright blue and the band played a lively march. Embassy staff and a Japanese journalist greeted them with German and Japanese flags. On the building on the pier hung Japanese characters with the message “Okaeri – Welcome back, Bavaria”. The frigate “Bayern” had already visited the Far Eastern country 24 years ago. On Friday she showed up once again, as the first ship of the German Navy in Japan for 19 years. Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi ws full of joy as he greeted the frigate and the Germans at the Tokyo cruise terminal. The visit of Bavaria is a visible sign that the Western democratic world is coming together to defend its values and the rules of peaceful coexistence between nations in the Indo-Pacific region. Japan, which sees itself as a spearhead in this endeavor given its proximity to China and North Korea, appreciates the naval ship’s stay in the 160th year of German-Japanese relations all the more. Kishi spoke of the arduous journey and praised the determination of the Germans. „We hope that this will lead to the involvement of other European countries in the Indo-Pacific,“ said the minister, giving the guests a role model function.

Decisions about freedom, peace and prosperity

The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Eberhard Zorn, spoke of the freedom of sea routes and compliance with international law in the region. Important decisions about freedom, peace and prosperity in the world were made in the Indo-Pacific. With the frigate visit Germany shows that it stands for these common values, said Zorn. That was a message not only to the Japanese but also to the audience at home. European countries such as France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands have already increased their presence in the region in the face of Chinese maritime claims and demonstrations of power. They also practice attacks on maritime targets together with America or Australia. The fact that Germany is now also waving its flag without territories in the region is new. It is the exclamation point behind the Indo-Pacific strategy adopted by the federal government in 2020, with which Germany seeks a certain distance from China without jeopardizing economic cooperation too much. The 232-man frigate, which reached Japan via Australia and Guam, will participate in an exercise with the United States, Japan, Australia and Canada in November. This involves exercises such as establishing communications or small maneuvers, but not shooting projects or aggressive operations, Zorn said. The importance of the frigate’s visit lies in the presence, but not in military threatening gestures, according to the German Foreign Ministry. For example, the Bavarians will not cross the Taiwan Strait when they later continue their journey through the South China Sea towards Singapore. China nevertheless refused the frigate’s visit to Shanghai, which was intended as a confidence-building gesture.

In the vicinity of Japan and before a visit to Busan, South Korea, Bavaria will also take part in the international control of the United Nations‘ trade sanctions against North Korea. In this way, too, Germany is accommodating Japanese interests. The Foreign Ministry in Tokyo praised the project in a press release and emphasized that Germany was participating in this mission for the first time. Increase your presence in the Indo-Pacific Both countries want to expand defense policy cooperation and thereby increase the German presence in the Indo-Pacific. Another visit by a German naval ship to the region is planned for 2023, said Zorn. The Air Force should take part in exercises in the region as early as next year. According to Zorn, there are already plans for this in Australia. He wants to explore such possibilities with Japan. We are talking about establishing connections with the army and exchanging ideas with Japan about the cyber threat. (…)

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