The Belarusian opposition wanted to topple Lukachenkov and bring Belarus into the EU and NATO: a no go for both Putin and Lukachenkov. Lukashenkov then brutally crushed the opposition movement in Belarus with Putin´s support, whereupon the EU imposed sanctions. Since Lukachenkov is becoming isolated, he is now getting closer to Putin, making more concessions for a Union state than before because he no longer has the Western card, but is now trying to compensate for these EU sanctions andtry to get concessions by staging a refugee crisis against the EU, which could also give him some balancing power again vis-à-vis Putin. Nevertheless, he threatens the EU and Poland with a military escalation of the border conflict, rumbling about a NATO regime change dream against him and citing the Polish and Baltic troops that are being mobilized to secure the border against the refugees as an alleged NATO invasion plan. Merkel then called Putin and asked him to mediate in the conflict, but Putin holds back and sent two Tupolev nuclear bombs to the Polish border. The main questions are: Will the EU finance a wall for Poland or will the Poles and the Balts do this alone? Do you still want to bring Belarus into the EU and NATO or do you let this become a Russian sphere of influence and at the same time Ukraine as a neutral state? And what about the Balkans if you accept Russian or Slavic zones of influence? Do you accept refugees in Germany and Western Europe or not and then not in Eastern Europe or do you accept a demarcation line to Belarus and Russia with closed walls and borders and thus clear spheres of influence? At the moment there are only 20,000 refugees, but is it not possible to create a pull effect and perhaps also the establishment of a Belarusian Turkish ideal, under which the EU pays and undermines and neutralizes its own sanctions? Will the EU for the time being as horse-trading also not impose sanctions against Poland because of the rule of law dispute, maybe even support Poland financially in order to do the dirty work? Isn’t the EU damaging its self-image as a community of values and causing it to abolish its proclaimed value orientation and only act in a real geopolitical manner? How do you react when Polish border troops or helicopters are attacked or provoked by Belarus? Do the USA and NATO see this only as a problem for Poland and possibly the EU or is it better if they hold back, since this is more likely to play into the hands of the Putin and Belarusian propaganda of a NATO regime change plan? Would a internalization of the conflict not create an escalation? How will this affect the relationship of the intended Union state between Russia and Belarus if Lukashenkos can no longer play the Western card? Reversed; Couldn’t Putin get tired of Lukachenkov if he engages in adventures with NATO? Or is Belarus the right provocative and icebreaker for Putin? Above all, Putin and Lukashenkov are initially concerned with establishing themselves as the new gatekeeper and circumventing the sanctions, as the EU is already cceptung the gatekeeper function of Turkey, Libya and Morocco, and because of this, Putin and Lukachenkov hope for rifts and disagreements in the EU, the West and NATO . Nevertheless, the question remains of how credible this threat is, since most refugees cannot afford plane tickets to Minsk and whether a really critical sustainable mass can be built up there or whether this remains symbolic and in manageable dimensions. Will millions of refugees come to Belarus as in Turkey and Libia by land, now by air, if Aeroflot or the Belarusian airlines do not subsidize this, which could easily ground a billion dollar grave for economically weak Belarus.In any case, Lukatschenkow knows very well how to use Pavlovian reflexes about the German wall complex, the German historical guilt complex and the fear of a new 2015, which is seen as a new 1933. In addition, a former Polish prime minister said: “After theopening of the wall , we experience now the wall of openings ”. It is precisely this dialectic between globalized cosmopolitanism and its backlash that needs to be understood and rationalized. What is going on in Belarus is not a new 2015or 1933and one should rather ask how to deescalate the situation.