Ukraine War: Escalation and Trump Deal or Deescalation and Biden Deal?
At the moment there is euphoria in the western camp, since Putin’s hoped-for Biltzkrieg in Ukraine and is not getting his easy ictory. The battle morale of the soldiers, as well as the fact that Putin fired 8 generals and the head of the FSB, support this assessment. Putin hardliners also appear on Russian television, who openly criticize the results of the war and speak not only of an operation, but even of a „war“, a word that is prohibited for normal citizens under the Threat of 15 years in prison. The Putin hardliners see the war at a crossroads, but it remains unclear whether these hardliners are now demanding a negotiated compromise or whether the war should be continued, including escalation, up to the hoped-for final victory. They did not comment on this. Despite all of Putin’s sanctions and setbacks, one has to see that he is also waiting to see how the sanctions will affect the West and whether the Western front and their people who are still so euphorically celebrating Ukraine solidarity will hold up. Especially with a view to the USA. Because while for Europeans and Germany Ukraine is very close, for Trump voters in the Midwest it is very far away and they are also fed up with the wars of the George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton and Biden globalists, which also means the withdrawal from the Greater Middle East from Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, in addition the USA no longer needs this oil region because of its own fracking and Europe is no longer the center of growth, but Asia and especially China, which the USA sees as the most important competitor who can topple the USA from its position as a world power.
The USA, NATO and the West were ready for anything that was an external threat. But by concentrating on the external enemy, globalist expansion and such imperialist adventures as the Iraq war 2003 or Libya, as well as neoliberalism which resulted in the financial crisis in 2008, they also fed the internal enemy in addition to the external enemies. And if the alleged deep state does not produce a new Lee Harvey Oswald, a Georg Elsner or a Stauffenberg, Trump’s re-election in 2024 is quite conceivable. And then the West is finally finished. Putin hopes so too. In addition to military expansion, he hopes for the domestic political destabilization of the West, after Brexit now on Front National and AfD as Frexit and Dexit, which smash the EU and NATO. And above all, Trump’s re-election. The question is: can Putin keep this war and his position 2 more years until 2024? Will he escalate or, should his position be too threatened, come to a negotiated compromise with Biden before a Trump deal? But that’s not a question of the month or of a next negotiation summit or Schröder’s initiatives. Should Putin continue to escalate, he will be considered a war criminal worldwide, with the exception of China and notorious last allies such as North Korea, Eritrea, Belarus, Venezuela, etc. But even that would not deter Trump. He would present all the misery as a product of the globalist policies of the Democrats around Biden and the establishment Republicans who did not want to make a deal, therefore triggering the war and the escalation and presenting himself as a peacemaker who, by means of a deal, would bring peace to Europe, Ukraine and with Russia. As a real deal maker. But the question would be whether he is only making a Ukrainedeal or wants a more comprehensive deal, as well as how he positions himself on Putin’s draft treaty to push NATO back to the pre-1997 borders. He probably won’t allow the latter rollback either. For Trump, the most important thing would be that Putin moves away from China and become neutral or junior partner. But does Putin want that at all? But maybe a deal with Biden over Ukraine will get along if Putin’s power erodes too quickly and as long as Biden doesn’t go for a regime change and the whole reshuffling of the cards.