Ukraine War: What is „Victory“ and „Defeat“?
Putin wants to have a “victory” in Ukraine by the May 9 anniversary victory parade over fascism in the Great Patriotic War at the Red Square. It is unclear what he means by that. As it turned out, he first wanted to conquer Donbass and Luhansk, Mariupol as a land bridge to Crimea and then south to Odessa and even Transnistria, as one of his generals explained. Very ambitious, but it does not look as if he will be able to achieve this goal, even if he is already operating Sender Gleiwitz maneuvers in Transnistria and it remains unclear how explosions at oil storage facilities in Russia can be explained. So far he has not blamed the Ukrainians for it. Conversely, the Ukraine is full of confidence in victory, is being further militarily upgraded by the USA and GB and other Eastern European countries, just like the Netherlands are now supplying Ukraine with so-called heavy war equipment. So far, Germany alone has remained a brake, suspected of having residual pro-Russian sympathies because of Nord Stream 2 and Ostpolitik from Brandt to Schröder, Steinmeier and Merkel and residual pacifism. The CDU/CSU had now written a draft for the Bundestag in which they hoped for support from the Greens and the FDP in the matter of heavy arms deliveries in order to isolate Scholz and the disunited SPD and change their minds. Furthermore, US Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Austin now traveled to Selensky in Kyiv to substantiate US support for him, to promise new arms deliveries and then to travel to Germany to act as Selensky’s advocate in relation to heavy arms deliveries. It’s a joke, since the USA could do this personally, but it’s funny to pretend that their proxy war is just a matter of Ukrainian sovereignty that needs to be defended against others – especially against the hesitant Scholz and that, as the largest world power, you would need the permission from Kyiv. Austin traveled to Ramstein today for a meeting of 40 defense ministers, mainly from NATO countries, to clarify further arms deliveries and potential security guarantees for Ukraine. And the German defense minister, Lambrecht, now also agreed to deliver Gepard tanks, i.e. heavy military equipment for the first time, although it will then still be discussed what will happen with the other heavy arms like Leopard, Marder, howitzers and more. Scholz is still keeping his mouth shut and Lavrov has threatened World War III and declared weapon paths could become targets, but these threats are not taken as seriously anymore like Putin’s nuclear threatsas they are already inflationary and nobody takes it serious anymore like Scholz or Merkel´s former military adviser General Vad. Russia has now announced that it is cutting off gas supplies to Poland, but the bulk of Russian gas goes to Germany and Russia has not yet threatened Germany directly with the eyception if Russia would not paid in rubble.
On the contrary: Ukraine, Great Britain, the Eastern Europeans and the USA claim that Putin cannot realize his war goals and that he will suffer a disaster. In the meantime, there is also talk of a „victory“ from Ukraine, although it remains unclear what the word „victory“ actually means. Zelensky has also now announced that he would not remove the goal of NATO membership from Ukraine’s constitution which previously he offered to Russia for peace talks. Dr Rahr said that Putin was tired of war and wanted peace. Apparently he is still the Putin propagandist like Gerhard Schröder, because if Putin wanted peace and was tired of war, he could offer a ceasefire or just withdraw the Russian troops. The opposite is to be expected, especially with regard to the Victory Parade in Moscow. In addition, one should not speak of war triedness and peace. At best, Putin wants a pause to reorganize his military and economy for a war economy, before realizing his next goal, as announced in the draft treaty, of pushing NATO back to the 1997 borders. Now that Marine Le Pen’s seizure of power in France has failed for the time being, he can only wait for Trump’s re-election. And China? Unlike many Western observers, we believe Xi encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine because, like Putin, he shared the misperception of viewing the West as a decadent, decaying, and rotten relic of history to be finished off with the deathblow of a blitzkrieg in Ukraine and the breakthrough to the multipolar world under Chinese and Russian authoritarian definition and new civiliazation, which would also bring US forces to Europe and away from the Asian pivot. Alongside Sun Tze’s „The Art of War“ and using 8 types of agents as in the United Front, Xi is also acting according to one of the 36 Chinese stratagems: Killing the enemy with someone else’s sword. Both agreed, although now Putin is de facto the useful idiot of Xi and the other sword, the Chinese are sitting on the fence as half-laughing third party and supposed non-aggressors, but are now unintentionally confronted again with Covid and the fact that the descending West is so united as never before in the last decades, just as the Ukraine crisis along with Covid and the US trade war are weakening the Chinese economy and power. In addition, Putin hopes for Trump’s re-election 2024 so that he will hollow out and question the EU and NATO, but not China, since in this case all the aggression of Trump’s US imperialism would be directed against China and the Asian Pivot.