Germany and the EU want to become independent from Russian oil and gas, but what does independent mean? For the foreseeable future, until the EU wants to become a green hydrogen technology world power in 2050,but there is still quite a bit of time and for the time being new dependencies are emerging: now from the Qataris who with the Muslim Brotherhood of the Greater Middle East, Erdogan-Turkey and also Hamas form an axis, especially since in competition with the LNG axis of the Mediterrean Gas Forum consisting of the USA Israel, Cyprus, Greece, Egypt (Lebanon), which was founded under US Secretary of State Pompeo, including the LNG terminal in Greece, in addition to the armament of Greece among other things, through the new military base Alexandriapoulis. These new dependencies can also generate new conflicts on the part of the Qataris and their allied Erdogan Turkey and Muslim Brotherhood in the Greater Middle East in the future. And who actually says that US LNG could not be used by a re-elected Trump or a Trumpist EU-hating Republican as a means of exerting pressure or as a weapon against the competitive power EU? All taboo topics that are better not addressed so strategically in times of need, since it is first about independence from Putin’s gas and oil and not about independence per se, which Germany could not achieve in the foreseeable future.
The energy transition media matron Dr. Kempfert, on the other hand, warbles nothing but happy and optimistic messages through her colorful hippie glasses of renewable energies, also that Schäuble’s proposal for the Greek crisis at the time will now be taken up and not Greece, but Portugal should now serve as the new Desert Tech and solar park for European green hydrogen technology. However, there are no concrete numbers, while Habeck clearly says that things are getting “clumpy” and “we are all getting poorer”. But there is also a lot in the dark about NATO’s northern enlargement front around Finland and Sweden. Erdogan has presented a 10-point catalog of demands for his approval, which includes everything from the delivery of F 35s to the extradition of PKK people, and at the same time he has now started an offensive in northern Syria against the YPG in order to get the green light from NATO—as Litmus test and beyond the actual 10-point list of demands seems to intend NATO approval for future neo-Ottoman conquests. The extraditions demanded are a number of dissidents who have nothing to do with the PKK, so Erdogan wants approval for his disposal of all political, including Turkish dissidents, and thus attacks centrally the democratic and constitutional value community of NATO and the EU. Likewise, his offensive in northern Syria, beyond the planned fight against the YPG, could also simply be land grabs and further land seizures for his hoped-for neo-Ottoman empire, which he wants to rule with the Muslim Brotherhood. The only thing missing is that Erdogan hopes that NATO will agree to further Turkish conquests and a fall of Assad after the Russians have partially withdrawn, perhaps also to the removal of the Russian military bases in Syria for their Russian Mediterranean policy. Conversely, it is questionable whether Putin would agree to a fall of Assad and Turkish expansion in Syria – despite all the hostility to NATO. At the same time, Erdogan mediates between Ukraine and Russia, Russia and NATO, and also wants to enable Ukrainian grain exports, which means that he could also go down in history as the world savior of the so-called „Global South“, which is threatened by hunger, especially since these countries, unlike the rest of the West, are by no means Russia so condemn or join the sanctions front. https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/erdogan-bleibt-bei-der-nato-north-expansion-hart-18068668.html
In any case, it is likely that Erdogan has submitted a list of demands to Putin, just like NATO, in order to get the best benefit for himself. In addition, his coalition partner from the MHP/Gray Wolves Bahceli openly proposes Turkey’s exit from NATO and a Turkish-dominated military alliance with Arab states. It remains to be seen whether Erdogan will agree to a northward expansion of NATO and what price NATO will have to pay for this. But at the same time as the military offensive in northern Syria, Erdogan is also fanning a conflict over the Greek Aegean Islands. A Turkish acquaintance told us about Erdogan’s demands in the Aegean and sent the following photo from Turkish state television, which makes the demands clear.
Also: Mitsokakis was in the USA and now troops are deployed on both sides. Erdogan claims that the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne is invalid after 100 years and that the intention is to reclaim the Aegean islands that Italy handed over to Greece, especially since a lot of LNG is also suspected there. Will this be the next war for the neo Ottonamnian empire? So also the SPIEGEL headlines:
“Dispute between Greece and Turkey Is there a military conflict in the Mediterranean? Greece and Turkey are again at odds over islands and gas deposits in the Mediterranean. That becomes a problem for NATO and the EU.”
A former German diplomat wrote to us:
„Dear Mr Ostner, thanks! I was in Turkey for a week. I have the impression that the country’s economic and social situation is being somewhat dramatized in our media. But I could be wrong. I also have the feeling that Erdogan is trying to ease tensions with Israel. But here, too, I still lack the deep insight. Overall, we have to assume that Erdogan will remain unpredictable in his foreign policy actions. Still, I think he shies away from a major conflict, not least because he prioritizes fighting the PKK or YPG.”
An overall view is somehow missing and that Erdogan submitted a 10-point catalog of demands to NATO, the specific details of which are not known to outsiders, only that it includes something from the F35 to the extradition of the PKK. It would be interesting to know whether he is also demanding territorial concessions. In addition, I would not underestimate the impact of the alleged 100-year expiry of the Lausanne Treaty. As my Turkish acquaintance keeps telling me, Erdogan convinces many Turks that historical revisions can solve all of Turkey’s problems and make it a great power and new empire. The fact that Erdogan is starting a military offensive in northern Syria and a conflict with Greece at the same time is a bit much. But it’s not just about the YPG and the PKK. nor even the HDP . On the other hand, he not only wants to push back the YPG, but also expand his neo-Ottoman empire beyond the bridgehead in northern Syria, also with the settlement of Syrian Islamists and Muslim Brotherhood loyal to him. And he will also bring in the Aegean Islands and the LNG discoveries as bargaining chips. In addition, Israel is already considering whether to transport the LNG via Turkey by pipeline instead of Pompeo’s Greek LNG terminal, yes, if Turkey and Qatar should become part of the Mediterrean Gas Forum or if this make them open to blackmail. .By the way, good information on the Israeli discussion about Turkey can be found in the Jerusalem Post. We agree on one thing. That Erdogan will not start two conflicts and wars at once. So far, he’s far more clever than Putin. But the Lausanne treaty, which is then in 2023 allegedly no longer valid, is meant more as symbolic, but as a revision like Putin’s draft treaty to NATO and the USA to withdraw their borders by 1997. Roll back.. Especially since Erdogan is calculating to become an LNG pipeline hub alongside the Qataris, and in Israel and the Mediterranean Gas Forum views are divided on this, as is the case in the Jerusalem Post. One can talk about the timing. Xi still has time for Taiwan as long as he lives and as his position of power is not endangered and the peak power theory does not apply. But in his lifetime, he wants to get Taiwan back. So it’s more a question of one’s own expectations and the balance of power. Erdogan is now looking forward to elections, his AKP at the moment wozuld get only 28%, and therefore he wants to play the nationalist, Islamist and Kurdish card. You also have to say goodbye to always assuming that economically disastrous situations would immediately lead to a change in mood and not to include the willingness of the population to make sacrifices if they believe they are fighting for a just cause. That is what is being practiced in Germany and the West at the moment, that one should freeze for the Ukraine or it will be „lumpy“ and the good times are over and we will all „become poorer“. The valve in Turkey can be that propaganda is now being made against the Syrian refugees instead of against Erdogan, which the AKP is not doing, but the CHP and other opposition parties. This will lead to two things: First, that Erdogan will be forced by the opposition to take the Syrian refugees out of the country and there are essentially only 2 options:
To Europe, including the questioning of the refugee deal or resettlement of Syrian refugees, Islamists and Muslim Brotherhood and land acquisition in northern Syria for the neo-Ottoman Empire beyond the bridgehead, which can also sold to the secular Turkish forces and the military as a program against the YPG and PKK. The second outlet is the conflict with Greece, especially since the Erdogan propaganda claims the alleged expiry of the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne after 100 years, which allegedly would give Turkey its own production of oil, lithium, raw materials, industrialization, control of the Bosporus and the Black Sea as well the LNG-rich possession of the Greek Aegean islands and if this treaty is revised, also via a war with Greece, all Turkey’s problems will be solved and it will experience a take-off and it will become a great power if it is already renamed Türkiye, so as not to be confused with an American turkey all the time. So the big 2 narratives of Erdogan propaganda. Northern Syria is likely to encounter less resistance than a conflict against NATO partners and US-backed Greece. Maybe that would end differently than Cyprus in 1974. But Russia and China are also coming into this conflict beyond the USA and NATO.
The former German diplomat also wrote to us:
„Dear Mr Ostner, perhaps the Turkish declarations to Greece are to be taken more seriously than I initially thought. In the past few days, voices have actually been raised in TUR claiming the Dodecanese (especially Rhodes). I hope this is just saber rattling to solidify the TUR position within NATO.”
Erdogan wants to make it clear what he wants with his 10-point program, and that’s not just a demand here and there, but a claim against NATO and Russia for spheres of interest and their approval. Now he will first lead the offensive in northern Syria to hoped-for success in 2022, then create clear facts on the 100th anniversary of 1923. But there are people who think he could be saturated if he was included in the Mediterranean Gas Forum with the Qataris as the LNGhub. But there are fears that he could then become the neo-Ottoman Putin when it comes to blackmailing the West and Israel, which is why wider strategic circles in Tel Aviv reject this. Talking to members of the Gray Wolves and the AKP and the Israelis is often more worthwhile than talking to the supposed insider bubble of diplomats in Ankara.
Then the German diplomat, who was in Turkey and having with diplomats of his kind, wrote to me:
„Happy Pentecost, dear Mr. Ostner! And thank you again for pointing out the potential for conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean. I was on the verge of making a serious mistake and underestimating the regional risks under the immediate impact of my trip to Turkey. “The surface is always smooth!” was Hans-Dietrich Genscher’s warning to the AA diplomats, because what is important is what happens beneath the surface. It’s simmering there. We saw that in Yugoslavia, in Russia and now in Turkey. The fundamental international legal and political question that Erdogan is asking is: how long will the regional order of the Lausanne peace treaty last?”
Another question: If Erdogan, Putin and Xi want the roll back, there are really only 2 options: to respond and to concede spheres of interest or, conversely, to organize a roll back in the own sphere of rule over the much-criticized deep state, in that respect he exists at all or also to the outside. Or thirdly, to accept this rollback tactically and temporarily, to what extent the enemy’s troops come, to make a kind of tactical concession and not complete decoupling, but as a mixture of it, in order not to overwhelm or undermine one’s own economic and political base. There will probably be a mixture of all of this and no quick solution, nor a new world order will be possible quickly, since everyone is just fighting for a new world order and it is just like General Asthana says, it´s some kind of a global 3rd World War on many levels and quite long-term, especially with strategic balancing between the regional powers in relation to the great powers. There will probably be a mixture of all of these and no quick solution, nor a new world order will be possible soon, since this will be fought out by everyone.
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