Taiwan Strait: CCP`s warning to Japan and relexation in Taiwan
Japan was invited to the 2022 NATO summit.
“Japan’s Kishida considers joining NATO summit
NATO has invited Japan to the summit, along with Australia, New Zealand and South Korea as its partners in the Asia-Pacific region.”
It also plans to station a serving military staff member in Taiwan and gets critzised by the Global Times not to play with the fire:
“Japan plays with fire in its increasingly reckless moves over Taiwan question
By Global Times Published: Jun 05, 2022 10:53 PM
Japan is expected to station a serving military staff member on the island of Taiwan for the first time to enhance its intelligence-gathering abilities, Japanese media Sankei Shimbun reported on Saturday. A retired Japanese defense official is currently stationed at the Taipei office of the so-called Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association due to „concerns about a backlash from Beijing,“ according to the media.
Chinese military expert and TV commentator Song Zhongping told the Global Times that no matter the status of the Japanese military officer stationed in Taiwan, it is clear that Tokyo keeps making more and more reckless moves over the Taiwan question.
„Japan has to be warned that if it dares to provoke China and interfere in China’s internal affairs, particularly the Taiwan question, it had better get ready to suffer a blow from China. So must Tokyo’s accomplice Washington,“ he warned.
Some analysts in Taiwan claimed that the stationing that will happen as early as this summer marks a structural change in the Japanese government’s attitude toward Taiwan. However, Song argues that Tokyo’s Taiwan policy remains unchanged, as Japan is still closely following the steps of the US.
For example, Washington has already sent military personnel to Taiwan before to conduct various missions, such as intelligence gathering and military training. Tokyo is now increasing its defense cooperation with the Taiwan region in alignment with Washington’s policy.
While increasing defense cooperation with the island of Taiwan, Japan is actually cooperating with the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, using Taiwan as a pawn to contain China and weaken its development.
No matter who is in office, the Japanese government will define its foreign policy, especially toward China, based on its ties with the US. But even in such a close alliance, the priority is still Washington’s national interests, resulting in Tokyo possibly becoming another US cannon fodder.
Despite such a risk, some Japanese officials and politicians recently have repeatedly made irresponsible remarks on Taiwan-related issues and colluded with the White House in an attempt to interfere in China’s internal affairs. The Kishida administration has also stepped up its military role in its alliance with the US, posing an extremely significant threat to the stable situation across the Straits.
In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin commented in late May that since Japan bears historical responsibilities to the Chinese people on the Taiwan question, so it should speak and act with extra prudence, earnestly learn lessons from history and avoid repeating past mistakes.
Japan has a particular complex about Taiwan, which was under its colonial rule for half a century, so it is willing to strengthen relations with Taiwan, even if it is not out of the purpose to cooperate with the US‘ strategy.
Historically, cross-Straits separation has a lot to do with Japan. Tokyo should not forget the history by continuing to bolster the Democratic Progressive Party authority’s pro-secession actions, which will only deepen the wounds of the cross-Straits split.
As the Japanese government constantly increases its provocations against China and even tries to meddle in the Taiwan question directly, this might lead to a severe setback in ties between Beijing and Tokyo.
Japan has always viewed China as a vast market and is not willing to give up gaining economic benefits from it. But on the other hand, it follows the US‘ political agenda to provoke China.
„Cooperating with the US to strengthen the containment of China is also in Japan’s interest of hoping China will remain a strong economic partner but not a strong country,“ said Song.
Japan has always believed that it is emboldened to continue challenging China since the US has its back. For Tokyo, it is an attempt to pull the chestnuts out of the fire, but it should always remember that whoever plays with fire will get burned.”
However, apparently calmness in Taiwan and no worries about an Cjhinese invasion for the time being. PLA actions are not expected before 2027, not even 2025. Similar to US general Milley. But 2027 is seen as a symbolically sensitive year because the PLA is celebrating its 100th birthday there and might to show its power projection capablility.
Mon, Jun 06, 2022 page1
China able to take on Taiwan, allies by 2027: MND
‘INTENSIFIED STANDOFF POSSIBLE’: Taiwan would respond by improving its defense capabilities, the Ministry of National Defense said in a report to the Legislative Yuan
The Chinese military would be capable of fighting against Taiwan and allied forces by 2027, a Ministry of National Defense (MND) report said yesterday.
China has set a goal of modernizing its warfare capabilities by that year, which is to mark the 100th anniversary of its army’s founding, and it might by then be able to act more aggressively toward Taiwan, said the report, which the ministry submitted to the Legislative Yuan for review.
The ministry did not cite any evidence that China was planning to invade Taiwan by 2027 or provide any intelligence that Beijing had given up on its vow to achieve “peaceful unification.”
China has over the past few years stationed an increasing number of warships along its southeastern coast, as it is seeking to maintain its military advantage in the region and attempting to build a system of intelligence warfare by 2027, the report said.
By 2027, China is expected to possess regional air defense capabilities, and long-range sea and airstrike systems, which would greatly extend its combat range, following the introduction of its aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong, a second-generation Type 003 vessel, as well as the mass production of Type 055 destroyers, Y-20 tanker aircraft and J-20 fighters, the report said.
The ministry said Chinese naval and air forces would be capable of projecting power at greater distances from its territory, extending its reach of military operations and enabling it to counter joint forces between Taiwan and its allies.
Taiwan would respond by improving its defense capabilities in joint operations against an invasion through integrated air defense systems and maritime interception, the report said.
The ministry said it would also focus on armed forces development, including plans for mass production of mature weapons, but did not specify a kind of weapon.
The report said that China is continuing to develop its capabilities to counter the US military in the Indo-Pacific region, which remains an integral part of Washington’s strategic focus, despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The ministry said there could be an intensified US-China standoff in the region by 2027 over issues including cross-strait relations, tensions on the Korean Peninsula and territorial disputes in the South China Sea, which could increase the risk of conflict between the two countries.
Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) last year said that China would be capable of launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025, but he did not elaborate on whether it would be able to deal with US involvement in such a war.
Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley has since last year reiterated that China aims to develop the capability to invade Taiwan by 2027.
However, he last year also said that although China might want to develop that capability, he sees no near-term intent to do so.
Apparently, it is now expected in Taiwan that the 1 country, 2 systems will be „localized“ by China within the framework of Xi’s 5 points. Let’s see what the CCP´s 20th party congress will decide.
“Mon, Jun 06, 2022 page3
MAC discusses how China could validate invasion
SHIFTING GEARS: As the ‘one country, two systems’ plan for Hong Kong had issues, China would rework it for Taiwan, which it would label a local region, a researcher said
China is likely to use a version of its “one country, two systems” framework designed for Taiwan to legitimize use of force against the country, Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Minister Chiu Tai-san (邱太三) said.
Chiu was speaking at a meeting on Thursday, at which the council’s advisory committee discussed possible responses in the event that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sought to legitimize an invasion of Taiwan and mitigate any international response by invoking the framework.
The CCP first announced the Taiwan version of the framework in 2019, when it hoped to use the proposal as a basis for political negotiations with Taiwan, he said.
In a report issued after the meeting, a researcher who asked to remain anonymous was cited as saying that the CCP has had to restructure its plans for the implementation of the Taiwan framework due to deteriorating US-China relations, the protests in Hong Kong and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Due to failures of the original “one country, two systems” framework designed for Hong Kong, China would redesign it for Taiwan, putting more emphasis on “one country,” while ensuring effective central control over the “two systems” to avoid social division, the researcher said.
The CCP would “localize” Taiwan in its laws, referring to it as a region of China, and would “internalize” cross-strait relations, they said, adding that the government should devise response measures.
Some committee members cited in the report said they believed that China had switched gears regarding Taiwan, because of the sanctions placed on Russia after it invaded Ukraine.
Fearing similar sanctions, China would attempt to legitimize its actions toward Taiwan using its laws, they said.
Recently, China’s “united front” efforts have focused on blocking any representation of Taiwan as an independent country internationally, as well as manipulating Taiwanese into working as collaborators, they said.
The CCP is likely to reiterate Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) “five points” on Taiwan at the 20th National Congress to be held later this year, which includes the Taiwan framework, they said.
Xi first introduced the five points in January 2019 when he said China would promote “peaceful unification” with Taiwan that “would fully respect Taiwanese compatriots’ way of life and guarantee their properties, religious beliefs and legitimate rights.”