Kaliningrad- the Stalingrad of the West?
As Iran is getting nuclear, the USA with Israel had their drills „Chariots of Fire“ and maybe an Isreali military attack on Iran might happen with all it consequences on energy prices and inflation beyond the humanitarian catastrophe, Russia claims that Lithuania made a blockade and embargo against Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania. Lithuania claims that this is just Russian propaganda and fake news to prepare a new invasion after Ukraine in the Baltic states or against Poland, even if they were NATO members. However, the Europeans are still divided between Old Europe and New Europe as during the Iraq war 2003, between Macron, Scholz and Western European states which don´t want such a fierce confrontation with Russia as the East Europeans and especially Lithuania wants or parts of the USA. Lithuania that also was the spearhead against China and Russia and especially against Russia like Brzezinksi as former Polish migrant wanted the G2 with China against Russia and Ukraine in NATO as he knew that could destroy the image of a Russian empire. Have a look in his book „Chessboard“. Brzeznski is like Che Guevara: „Create 2, 3, 4 Vietnams“, „create the Afghanistan trap“, the „Ukrainian trap“ , „the Lituanian trap“as Poland, the Baltic states and Ukrainians think as nationalistic as the Russians, want their own empire and understand the Russian empire thinking very good and how to provoke it for their own purposes, they only like the EU because of their financial transfers, but not because the rule of law, democracy, freedom of speech,human rights, etc. , payed in most parts from Germany and France and the Northern European states after GB because of the Brexit ruined the win- win- situation between Polish migration to GB and their benefits to the so called service industries, health and care industries and a lot of more industries and logictics and truck drivers. But beyond those economic factors and results, these states militarily want to create some sort of little Cordonne sanitaire like in the 1920s and 30s. GB, Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic states and some others are thinking about to create a new (East) European security architecture. As these East Europeans have a sense of their own nationalism, racism, homophobia, heroism, antiliberalism, chauvinism, which most Germans don´t have they better understood Putin´s chauvinist nationalism as it is and was part of their own authotarian DNA. Therefore don´t repeat the EU expanison sory forever. First 5 years membership under a liberal democratic goverment to be replaced then by an authotarian ruler which cannot be kicked out of the EU or NATO, And it is okay to give a candidate status for Ukraine and even the West Balkans, but not let them join the EU for the next 3 decades as the EU already had low standards regarding Bulgaria and Romania. Big is not better and not beautiful. Better consolidation of the EU, but don´t bring in new economic, political and cultural trouble makers as you cannot even cope with Poland and Hungaria and can´t kick them out. Putin was a part of their own ideological and nationalist thinking, but too mighty and therefore a clear foe. But to talk about Lithuania and Kaliningrad: Well an invasion with visible Russian troops is not an realistic option, but a hybrid army of green men which in a hybrid war will infiltrate Lithuania in order to undermine NATO response and provoke clashes about NATO` reaction within the military alliance. Putin could claculate that a limited hybrid offensive in the Baltics could disintegrate NATO about the question if NATO should counteract with a nuclear strike for a small stake without visible troops, not react or to have a fierce discussion within NATO . Thereby Putin could hope that he beyond Ukraine could ignite a new Stalingrad of the West and NATO, not because this was a hundred thousand troops battle, urban warfare, etc. like in Ukraine, but to divide NATO about the detererrence and the nuclear reaction which the USA has to decide. Could Putin dare to start a hybrid Stalingrad against NATO not by an oficial invasion, but a hybrid war for a small stake to test out NATO´s reactions? If NATO would not respond quickly or as recommended by Michael O Hannnon with an integrated deterrence, this could paralyze and disunite it and have disastrous consequences. However, US general Breedlove who was responsible for the US troops in Europe claimed, that if Russia would interfere in the Baltic states, the US and NATO should conquer Kaliningrad. However, Putin after this annoncement, deployed Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad which could hit Berlin within the duration of 5 minutes, but protect the USA and thereby canceled Breedlove´s sort of deterrence. So what is left is Michael O `Hannon´s book „The Senkaku paradox“ and the CSBA study “Rethinking Armageddon” which give the best answers to such topics of Russia with green men and cyber attacks invading a NATO-state about a small stake at the brinkmanship of a nuclear war and the Russia philosophy „escalate to deescalate“. And thereby shaking the NATO military and value community to the ground. While O Hannon desricbes a deliberate hybrid war against the Baltic states by Putin, the CSBA study at that time claimed that Putin is a rtional actor and a invasion in the Baltic states and a nuclear escalation would be not Putin ´s wil, but happen because of a selfdynamism between Russian nationalism and Baltic Russians and their extreme nationalist seperatists who light the spark. However, we are interested to know if this was a Lithuanian blockade, an execution of the EU sanctions and a text against Russian desinformation, if it exits that way. But maybe after the 2022 June meetings of NATO, EU and G 7 we will know more.And it will be also interesting if NATO publishes a NATO strategy 2030 while the decision of revisionist Erdogan´s neo-Ottoman empire about a NATO membership about Finland and Sweden remains to be seen as the retreat from the treaty of Lausanne Montreaux and Paris in 2023 and an attack against Greece in the hope of a Cyprus invasion result as in 1974 while preparing for an offensive in Northern Syria. But beyond all these other unities of the West, it would be interesting to know what is with Kaliningrad. The Russian foreign ministery today claimed that the USA was behind the LIthuanian blockade and that this was an unfirendly act. While Putin said at the Petersburg Economic Forum that an EU membership of Ukraine was no problem for Russia, thus counteracting all his previous declarations, that Ukraine was no nation or state nor own civilization, but part of the Russian wolrd. he today claeimed that the EU candidate status was directed against Russia and that he would react accordingly. The gas stop which he other side also wants, but not at the moment, is rejecting the paradigma that Putin would deliver oil and gas even during the heights of a crisis as the Sovjetunion never stopped gas at the heights and crisis of the Cold war. And the dimesion of dependence was despite all gas and oil imports from Russia very limitec in the 80s and 90s. Therefore Putin doesn´t care about his reputation and image of a trustful and reliable deliverer, but uses the oil and gas as an instrument of an economic war and decoupling ideology. However, as the West wants to decouple from Russian gas and oil, as Russia can sell it to Asia, China and India and other states as sanctions outlet, as the prices for oil and gas are so high that Russia as the OPEC really make profits due to the rise of the energy prices, all these old paradigmas are part of the past and maybe even the energy transition in the EU might not work. However, after the EU summit we get no further information, if the Lithuanian blockade exists, if it is part of the EU sanctions or a new US front after Breedlove´s failed deterrence against Kalinigrad. If you cannot conquer it, than hunger it out and make an integrated deterrence like O Hannnon with an economic blockade against Russian soil in Kalinigrad. Maybe this time it is: Moldavia against Kalinigrad. But that would be the worst case. First the Russians have to conquer the Donbass and the West hopes for a Ukrainian counteroffensive in autumn when all those nice heavy weapons deliveries become operational.