Once the people said: : “Only Nixon could go to China”, maybe in the future it will be: “Only Pelosi could go to Taiwan!” . Pelosi has landed in Taiwan today. No shooting down of her plane by the PLA or the CCP, comparable to the 1914 assassination attempt on the Austrian crown heir in Sarajevo, which started a world war, no pushing back, no invasion or shelling of the PRC against Taiwan yet, a few more threatening maneuvers so far and another naval maneuver with live ammunition. I had imagined the following scenarios. Pelosi’s plane is forced by the PLAF to land with Chinese warplanes not in Hainan or abroad, but with them at Taipei airport). A PLAF dwarf jumps out of his Made in China 2025- Mig , runs over the airfield, shakes Pelos´s hand and shouts: „Welcome to China!“. That would have been a satrical scenario. The assumption was also that the Chinese are reacting extremely angry or were the Americans hoping for a Matthias Rust effect like that under Gorbi?
In any case, the Chinese now look like the idiots and everyone who warned against a confrontation if they didn’t respond with more than a maneuver with live ammunition. Dr Rahr said: „The USA showed the Chinese their power.“ In several respects. That the USA can threaten enough militarily to prevent Chinese intervention. That Beijing’s threats are empty threats. That the USA, which can still assert its claim to world power against Beijing and also in Ukraine for the time being, also the freedom of its politicians, including high-ranking politicians who, according to Beijing, undermine the one-China principle, can visit whoever they want and also the separation of powers and US strength has triumphed. The fact that one is going to the brink of war doesn’t seem to bother anyone, just as the mutual claims to world power continue to exist. Apparently the only important thing is that this time there was a temporary happy ending and that the West won by points, see you next time. In any case, at the moment the Chinese are standing there like loud-mouthed idiots and cowards and have a Matthias Rust effect, comparable to the landing on Red Square. Dr Rahr said: „Yes, I see it that way too. The Chinese have been exposed as loudmouths. West applauds, greater humiliation. There is no loss of face.“ But does Xi react like Gorbi did with Matthias Rust? Dr Rahr draws a different comparison: Xi-Yeltsin. „Like Yeltsin. Threatening, taunting, giving in.“ If China now only responds with military maneuvers using live ammunition, it looks like a nation whose military can only fire China firecrackers. Dr Rahr commented: „Yes, and here politicians are writhing with laughter. China is not a great power. America conducts. China will no longer support Russia either. The thrashing by the USA sobered them up.!
Perhaps the 20th Communist Party Congress will be exciting after all. Dr Rahr says: “The ZK delegates will sit there like watered and pissed- off poodles. Xi will come up with something”. But the question is what “something” is supposed to be. Sakhalin instead of Taiwan, Senkaku/Diaoyutai in the East China Sea, Kinmen instead of Taiwan, an action in the South China Sea, all perhaps with the risk of getting caught in the next pipe burst and the next humiliation? economic sanctions? Incite Iran and North Korea against the US, especially since Iran may soon become nuclear. Well, the Chinese as the inventors of gunpowder and with their Sun Tze appear as a nation that never knew how to use gunpowder beyond Chinese firecrackers. And with the invention of dynamite, the innovation went to a European named Nobel, who dedicated the first Nobel Peace Prize to the pacifist Suttner, who at the time called for a weapon-free world like Baerbock does today at the UNO for the NPT debate for a nuclear weapons- free world. Many Americans who previously thought Pelosi was a „crazy woman“ or a „fucking bitch“ will now proclaim patriotically and admiringly: „She made it!“. She makes America first and great again and now think „Now more than ever!“ and „More of that!“. Dr Rahr said: „And the Chinese will now lick their wounds. America triumphs. Also killed the al Qaeda chief. Russians all flabbergasted, stunned, no downfall for America that everyone believed in“.
However, it is possible that Putin’s Ukraine fiasco has prevented Xi from escalating, as both sides of the Ussuri are likely to wonder whether they have gotten involved with the right partner. Can China now escalate the trade war with the USA as a response and substitute for military action, maybe even impose sanctions on the USA and others itself, maybe act as a troublemaker for the world community and world economy, push decoupling, maybe trigger a world economic crisis, which again has repercussions on China?
The 20th party congress might still be exciting. Dr Rahr said: „The ZK delegates will sit there like watered and pissed- off poodles. Xi will come up with something. China will no longer support Russia either. The thrashing by the Americans sobered them up.” But the question is what that “something” is supposed to be. A next threat or military action not against Taiwan, but perhaps against Kinmen, the Senkaku/Diaoyutai in the East China Sea or something in the South China Sea with the danger of catching another humiliation or a deadbeat? Economic sanctions against the US du Taiwan? The 20th Congress faces the choice of course correction or an internal ruthless purge of all Xi critics. Escape to a multipolar world with Russia or would you rather correct course and distance yourself from Russia?
The following message is also of interest:
“Black Panther K2-PL Poland upgrades massively and buys 1000 main battle tanks from Korea
Warsaw is arming itself powerfully. 48 fighter jets, 648 self-propelled howitzers and an incredible 1000 main battle tanks were purchased in South Korea. The K-2 Black Panther „PL“ is the most advanced Western tank actually available. Poland is arming itself massively. That was well known, but it is surprising that Warsaw is buying the largest arms package in South Korea. Among other things, battle tanks K2 are procured – in two tranches first 180 and then another 820 pieces. The tank is being developed by Hyundai Rotem, a subsidiary of Hyundai Motor Group. To this end, 48 FA-50 fighter aircraft and 648 K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers will be purchased. Altogether that’s almost 1648 heavy armored vehicles. Korea outperformed the other competitors, especially the Leopard II. In addition to the pure technology, the terms of the deal play a major role. The majority of tanks and guns are built in Poland. In addition, the Koreans can probably deliver much faster than the competition. The first tanks are expected to arrive later this year, and the first planes next year.
Attractive package from Korea The time pressure is great. The first delivery of the tanks will be in the „normal“ K2 configuration. After that, the models are modified for Polish needs – the Polish variant is then called K2-PL. A further 820 of these are to be built from around 2026 and those already delivered will be modified. Together you get 1000 main battle tanks and 648 self-propelled howitzers. In addition, Poland has ordered 250 Abrams tanks from the USA. So the Polish army is upgrading to Cold War levels. What the „PL“ configuration will look like exactly is not known at the moment. However, a K2 PL “Wolf” has already been shown. He noticed that the hull of the tank was extended by a set of wheels. Together with a new, more compact engine, this addition could be used to build an ammunition store in the tank that is completely separate from the crew and to accommodate the crew in a specially protected cell similar to the T-14. State-of-the-art western tank With the „normal“ K-2, Warsaw has opted for the world’s most modern main battle tank in the NATO standard, which is actually available and is already being built.
The K2 is not from the Cold War, it has been in production since 2014. It’s not revolutionary like the Russian T-14 Armata, but far more modern than the Cold War models. The K2 has taken over a lot from the Leopard 2, especially the on-board weapon. The K2 is the only western tank to have an autoloader for the guns, eliminating the onboard loader. The crew consists of three people. On the newest models like the Panther, a fourth person is planned, who could pilot aerial drones or unmanned support vehicles – this was not considered when the K2 was designed. Right from the start, the K2 had innovations that the Leopard is only now getting in the course of modernization, and only partially. The K2 has an active self-protection system designed to ward off attacking missiles. In addition, the tank can have different ground clearances thanks to its hydropneumatic chassis. With a weight of only 55 tons, the K2 follows the Russian models and is significantly lighter than the western models. With 1500 hp, the K2 therefore has an excellent horsepower-to-weight ratio. The tank is armed with a 120mm cannon. The engine, transmission and cannon of the first assembly come from Germany or were manufactured under license and are being converted to Korean developments.
Bulwark in Poland Another special feature is the open concept of the Hyundai, which makes it easy to further develop the tank from assembly to assembly, as well as customer-specific solutions for export. Hyundai’s offer is attractive to ordering countries because of the technology transfer and employee training. The sheer volume of the Polish order has a signaling effect. Ultimately, all countries in Eastern Europe want to modernize their tank fleets. For them, the K2 will be even more interesting. The reasons why Poles voted for the K2 also apply to others. It can be said that the European industry will only come back into play if they are able to quickly offer a significant evolution of the Leopard 2, with a concept of how this tank can then be built in large numbers by customers. Once the K2 is operational in large numbers in Poland, it will change the entire landscape. The K2-PL is vastly superior to the standard Russian T-72 tank. Only the most modern variant of the T-90 and the still not operational T-14 are a match for it. Moscow would have to procure large quantities of both if it wants to counter Poland’s 1,000 modern battle tanks. A superiority of 3 to 1 or even 4 to 1 required for an attack could not be financed by Moscow.
Berlin under pressure At the same time, the deal again shows the illusionary world in which the German government lives with its ring exchange concepts. As a reminder, a country planning to procure 1000 state-of-the-art main battle tanks was offered 100 old Leopard 1s. A model that is already far inferior to the T-72. And the idea of helping Warsaw with 20 reasonably modern Leopard 2 seems involuntarily funny in view of the 1000 tank deal. The Polish decision will put a lot of pressure on Berlin. If Poland, with a population of around 40 million, deploys a force of 1,250 main battle tanks and 648 self-propelled howitzers, Germany will no longer be able to operate with around 300 main battle tanks and 119 howitzers. The allies will also expect a comparable effort from Germany. Based on twice the population and the higher economic power, it would be well over 2000 battle tanks.
One should see more in the Polish-South Korean armaments deal than just a loss for Rheinmetall and the German armaments industry, especially since Japan and South Korea have just changed their defensive deterrence strategy into an offensive deterrence strategy, with praise from Austin, in Japan even with constitutional amendments and Japan and Southkorea for the first time attended the NATO – Summit. An axis USA, GB, Poland, Baltic States and Eastern Europeans with Asian states, AUKUS and Quad and Pacific Rim is being forged within NATO, since the Germans and the French are seen as unreliable cantonists and unfaithful tomatoes, yes, the narrative of former Defense Minister Rumsfeld from the old and new Europe will now be transferred from the neocon Iraq war of 2003 to the new conflict against Russia and China. Through the armaments deal and the dimension, Poland will become the decisive armament state of NATO, which wants to let others upgrade its military in its slipstream , also the hesitant Germany, which still does not meet the 2% target of NATO and is only capable of ring deliveries of old weapons and which is not even reliably capable, but according to Chatham House Germany should also be armed in such a way that, like Christian Lindner demands that the Bundeswehr will become “the most modern, leading and strongest power in Europe” as it was during the Cold War and is supposed to relieve GB and F, who are then more involved with the others in the Indo-Pacific, as well as the USA. But the time has not yet come and the 100 billion euro Bundeswehr program is, from the point of view of the former German NATO General Domröse jr.will also not make the goose fat: „Yes, we did it ourselves! When the war in Ukraine is over one day, Germany will be THE loser, as you rightly say. The B9s led by Poland, like ITALY after Libya, will demand more weight and language in NATO…and get it. It’s a shame, but we’re dwarfing.“