Taiwan: Aufgeschoben ist nicht aufgehoben
Nach teilweise triumphalen Siegesgeschrei in Teilen der westlichen Medien und Politikkreise über den Pelosibesuch („Only Nancy could go to Taiwan“) sieht sich nun auch die KP China gezwungen den vorläufigen Gesichtsverlust zu kommentieren, was ihr in der heutigen Global Times gleich drei Artikel wert ist. Die GT interpretiert Pelosis Taiwan-Reise als kurzfristigen Sieg der USA, aber langfristig werde diese die Auseinandersetzung verlieren.
In dem Artikel ist nun auch ist die Rede davon, dass die Taiwan-Frage innenhalb von 5 Jahren gelöst werde. Das 3er Kommunique sei nun Geschichte, der Pelosibesuch habe den Status Quo in der Taiwanfrage nun fundamental geändert und der Kampf werde jetzt erst richtig losgehen.
Pelosi changes status quo of Taiwan Straits with provocative visit, exposes US long-term miscalculation
, Xu Yelu and Bai Yunyi Published: Aug 03, 2022 10:23 PM Updated: Aug 03, 2022 10:12 PM
When US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan island and touted the US‘ so-called commitment to the island, her extremely reckless and dangerous move immediately prompted a series of countermeasures from China, ranging from the military to diplomacy to economic sanctions. China’s reaction to this serious intrusion on the country’s sovereignty is widely considered as rational and reasonable, underscoring its firm strategic determination and sufficient patience to adhere to its own timetable in solving the Taiwan question. And such steady advancement of its own agenda gives Beijing the edge compared with the short-sighted Washington that will lose more points in the long-term geopolitical wrestling match.
Within less than 10 hours after five Chinese authorities including the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, Taiwan Affairs Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, Foreign Affairs Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference National Committee and the Ministry of National Defense, used strong and robust language to condemn Pelosi’s visit, the Chinese Foreign Ministry summoned US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns to protest against Pelosi’s visit and Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi issued a second strong statement condemning the US‘ intrusion on China’s sovereignty.
Chinese embassies in countries like the UK, Japan and India all released similarly stern messages, and Qin Gang, Chinese envoy to the US, lodged solemn representations and strong protests in the first place with the US White House National Security Council and the Department of State.
Besides unprecedented diplomatic warnings, joint military exercises around the island by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continued Wednesday with joint blockades, sea assaults, land attacks and air combat trainings with the participation of advanced weapons including J-20 stealth fighter jets and DF-17 hypersonic missiles after the drills started on Tuesday evening.
The exercises are unprecedented in that conventional missiles are expected to fly over the island of Taiwan for the first time, the PLA forces will enter the sea area within 12 nautical miles to the island, and that the so-called median line will no longer exist, experts said.
In addition, mainland customs announced on Wednesday morning the suspension of imports of citrus fruits and some frozen fish imports from the island. It also suspended exports of natural sand, of which Taiwan reportedly sources over 90 percent from the mainland.
During a press briefing of the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Wednesday, many reporters were concerned with what countermeasures the Chinese government would roll out and whether Beijing will sanction the island or Pelosi, and some followed up with questions such as how China will punish those who offended the country.
„From those questions, I believe that we all consider Pelosi’s move as extremely wrong, so it has to be punished,“ Hua Chunying, spokesperson of the ministry, told the briefing.
„They will reap what they sowed. Relevant countermeasures will be forceful and effective, the US and secessionists in Taiwan will feel the impact,“ she said.
Rational strategic choice
Until Pelosi arrived at Taipei’s Songshan airport on Tuesday evening, the Chinese side had not adopted one of the possible ways speculated by public opinion in response to the provocation: the PLA could send warplanes and warships to escort her plane. However, some experts said that when it comes to military countermeasures, one factor to be considered is to avoid military conflicts or gunfire in adopting the countermeasure.
When it comes to sending warplanes to intercept Pelosi’s plane, such close-range countermeasures can easily lead to a gunfire incident.
„There’s no need to launch a war with the US now, as it’s not in line with our national strategy,“ Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
Jin believes that in face of Pelosi’s visit, Chinese society showed an unprecedented consistent public opinion of „safeguarding the national reunification“ and „opposing US provocation,“ which lays out a strong public opinion foundation for launching the process of reunification, therefore solving the Taiwan question will only be a matter of time in the next few years.
In response to the reported disappointment of the Chinese public for not stopping Pelosi’s visit asked by Reuters, Hua from the Chinese Foreign Ministry said it is believed that Chinese people are patriotic in a rational way. „We are in full confidence of firmly safeguarding the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,“ she said.
While some foreign observers also questioned whether Pelosi’s visit crossed China’s red line, Chinese experts affirmed that China’s red line is not whether Pelosi visited the island or not but it’s the one-China principle.
„Although Pelosi’s visit to the island itself is a provocation to the principle, China is now taking subsequent countermeasures to reinforce and defend it in order to make this red line clearer to the US and US politicians. As result, they will bear the serious consequences and others won’t dare to challenge it in a similar way,“ Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
In the eyes of Chinese experts, the visit signals a further decline in the already weak political trust between China and the US, which also changed Washington’s so-called status quo over the Taiwan Straits.
„In fact, the cross-Straits situation is entering a new phase now. The US made one extremely dangerous step forward, which means China will take two steps forward,“ Lü Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
The ongoing military drills around the island are a „rehearsal to solve the Taiwan question by force,“ he said, noting that from now on, the PLA will take tighter control over the airspace and surrounding sea areas of Taiwan to elevate China’s security bottom-line, Lü said.
Pelosi’s Taiwan visit is opening salvo in a war with China that the US will lose, Franz Gayl, a retired Marine Corps infantry officer and a former Pentagon employee, told the Global Times.
„Do members of the American public understand the horrors their government is about to inflict on their sons and daughters when they are sent off to fight a wholly inappropriate intervention that the US will lose?“ Gayl asked.
The status quo has finally changed. Any illusion that the US is or ever was committed to the one-China policy has evaporated, he said.
„The arrival of the Speaker of the House of Representatives and second in line to serve as the Chief Executive in the sitting president’s absence has ended decades of reunification efforts. From the perspective of the People’s Republic of China, the Three Communiqués which set the conditions for US-PRC diplomatic relations are viewed by the US to be worthless pieces of paper,“ Galy said.
Long-term patience vs. shortsighted interests
US officials said Biden never told Pelosi not to go, The New York Times reported, but it contradicts the fact that Biden believed US military officials felt it was „not a good idea.“ When Pelosi arrived in Taiwan, some US-led Western media outlets considered it as a „victory.“
However, in contrast to China’s long-term strategic determination and patience, the US‘ biggest miscalculation is to undermine the overall China-US relations for the selfish interests of certain politicians, and when the US is playing the Taiwan card to create crisis scenarios across the Straits, China is steadily turning those scenarios into opportunities to achieve its goal of reunification. Such long-term rational strategic consideration also helped it tackle previous crisis such as the disputes over the Diaoyu Islands, the South China Sea and the riots in Hong Kong in 2019.
„Every time the US provokes China, the result has been shame on themselves,“ Hua said during the press briefing. The latest example was Pelosi instigating the black-clad riots in Hong Kong and touting the so-called „beautiful sight,“ which just accelerated the later transition of the city from chaos to stability, she noted.
When the trade war between China and the US started in 2018, many people saw that the US had taken the initiative to attack us and that there was still a gap between China and the US in terms of strength, Xin said, noting that those people thought that China did not have enough countermeasures and therefore „the US was certain to win.“
„However, after some time, people realized this was not the case. The US itself has come to the conclusion that more than 90 percent of the cost of the trade war is borne by the American middle-classes,“ he said.
Pelosi’s visit came amid intense global media scrutiny. The 82-year-old is fighting hard to gain more support as the midterm elections loom, and apparently, the US scored the first blow amid the current wrestling match with China by defying Beijing’s warning and making her visit happen. However, in a long-term perspective, the US is putting its most important foreign relationship at risk, further weakening its political credibility but accelerating China’s reunification, experts said.
„After this visit, China-US relations will surely go backward, and cross-Straits relations will get worse. No matter whether on domestic issues or foreign affairs, the US needs China’s help on issues such as climate change, North Korean nuclear issue, the Ukraine crisis and its own inflation, but how much support can the US government gain from China after this?“ Xin said.
Reunification is considered as a final step to achieve China’s rejuvenation, and the Chinese government has its own pace in solving the Taiwan question, experts said. But Pelosi’s reckless move largely helped this process, making the whole world closely observe China’s irrefutable sovereignty over Taiwan and how the US constantly lost points in its international morality and image by hurting China-US relations.
It looks like the visit helped the US „score a win,“ just for now, but in the long run, it will lose more advantages, especially when China completes its rejuvenation, it will be a full-scale wrestling match between China and the US and the latter will see its hegemonic position in the world diminish, experts predicted.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272138.shtml
Ein wichtiger Addressat für China sind die ASEANstaaten. China betont, dass der Pelosibesuch die ASEAN-Staaten in eine komplizierte Situation gebracht hätten, China aber nicht erwarte, dass sie nun eine Seite ergriffen, sondern verstünden, wenn sie neutral blieben und als Vermittler auftreten, auch im Rahmen der G 20 und der APEC.
“Pelosi’s ‚reckless‘ Taiwan visit keeps SE Asian countries on tenterhooks
By Zhao Yusha
and Wan Hengyi Published: Aug 03, 2022 10:10 PM
US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s „reckless“ visit to Taiwan island on Tuesday not only raised tensions across the Taiwan Straits, but also keeps Southeast Asian countries on tenterhooks as several regional countries expressed concerns right after her arrival.
Experts believe Pelosi’s „trip of trouble and provocation“ will keep relevant countries more alert to foreign interference, and open their eyes wider to see who the biggest saboteur of regional stability is.
Southeast Asian foreign ministers will seek ways to help calm rising tensions over Taiwan at regional talks on Wednesday, after Pelosi arrived on the island, AFP reported. It said that the Deputy Secretary-General of ASEAN Kung Phoak, Secretary of State of Cambodia’s foreign ministry, said the meeting would seek to calm the waters.
He told reporters that ministers would try to find ways the bloc could help „so that the situation in Taiwan will be stable, that it won’t lead to a conflict and won’t escalate the political heat among all concerned parties.“
Talking to reporters at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers‘ Meeting in Cambodia on Wednesday, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that Pelosi’s visit was a complete „farce“ and those who play with fire won’t end well, and who offend China will be punished.
The US is conspiring to violate China’s sovereignty under the banner of „democracy,“ and Taiwan regional leader Tsai Ing-wen is colluding with the US, walking back on national interests, said Wang, noting that all those actions that try to turn the clock back won’t change the international consensus of the one-China principle, and won’t change the trend that Taiwan will eventually return to the embrace of the motherland.
The Lao government firmly supports the one-China principle and China’s cause of national reunification, and it opposes any attempt to create „two Chinas“ or „one China, one Taiwan.“ Laos is concerned that relevant provocative acts may trigger regional tensions, said the Lao Foreign Ministry on Wednesday.
„Vietnam wishes for all relevant parties to restrain themselves, not escalate tensions in the Taiwan Straits, positively contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability, and strengthen cooperation and development in the region and the world,“ Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Le Thi Thu Hang said on Wednesday.
„It is important for the US and China to ensure continuing communication to avoid any miscalculation and further escalation of tensions,“ Ambassador Ma. Teresita Daza, spokesperson of the Philippines‘ Department of Foreign Affairs, said in a WhatsApp message to the media on Tuesday, the Philippine Star reported.
Pelosi’s visit has pushed ASEAN countries into a precarious situation where they sense rising foreign interference and threats to regional stability. This is something that those countries are striving to avoid, and it challenges their long-cherished peace and development, Tang Qifang, an associate research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times.
Tang expected ASEAN countries to stress their unified stance during the ASEAN meetings and push for regional stability. Worsening China-US ties pose a grave threat to smaller countries.
Chen Xiangmiao, an assistant research fellow at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said that there is no doubt that sticking to the one-China principle and avoiding the China-US escalating conflict represent a consensus within the ASEAN bloc.
„The reason why not every country from the bloc speaks out is because some are afraid of aggravating the US. After all, the US government has been depicting Pelosi’s visit as her personal choice,“ said Chen, noting that Pelosi’s visit and the trouble that has come after it has made those countries clearer to the fact of who is the biggest saboteur of regional stability.
After shouldering the blow of COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis, regional countries crave stability more than anything else, and any country that tries to stir conflict in this region will be persona non grata, according to Chen.
This week’s events are the first in-person meetings of foreign ministers from ASEAN countries after a two-year hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Straits Times reported. It said that ASEAN foreign ministers will also meet their counterparts from 11 key dialogue partners this week – Australia, Canada, China, the EU, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia, the UK and the US.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying announced that Wang Yi has no plans to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken although both are attending the 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers‘ Meeting and related meetings in Cambodia, a decision seen by experts as a signal that reflects the severity of the visit, as well as China’s outrage toward the US provocations.
Because of ASEAN countries‘ reluctance to see an escalating conflict between Beijing and Washington, Chen said that those countries could serve as „mediators“ to assuage the tension, as this bloc always upholds a goal of „not taking sides“ and a neutral stance, which gives it a legitimate posture to persuade Washington from adding fuel to the fire.
Also this bloc can provide multiple platforms for big powers to negotiate, said Chen, citing the holding of the G20 meeting in Indonesia in the latter half of this year, and the APEC meeting in Thailand. “
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272140.shtml
Den Gesichtsverlust interpretiert die KP China jetzt um: Man wollte einen 3.Weltkrieg verhindern und hat verantwortlich im Sinne der Menschheit gehandelt, während die USA ein Troublemakler seien,, zugleich werde aber die Lösung der Taiwan-Frage vorangetrieben. Die Mittellinie der Taiwanstrasse wie die 3 Komminques seien nun Geschichte, China werde bald erstmals über taiwanesischen Luftraum eine Rakete und Flugzeuge senden und die VBA sei nun besser gerüstet als 1996, auch im Hinblick auf die USA und eine Seeblockade Taiwans. Bei kommenden Manövern könnten diese jederzeit in den Zustand operativer Kriegsführung übergeführt werden. Ebenso wird angekündigt, dass das Anti-Sezzessionismusgesetz, das nur ein grober Rahmen sei, nun in ein spezifisches Taiwan-Gesetz umgewandelt wird. Ob das einen Zeitrahmen einschließt oder man flexibel bleibt, bleibt abzuwarten .In einem anderen GTartikel.ist schon konkret formuliert, dass man die Taiwan-Frage innerhalb von 5 Jahren lösen müsse. Ein Taiwan-Gesetz dürfte zentrales Thema beim20.Parteitag werden.
“PLA drills around Taiwan continue to ‚rehearse reunification operation‘ after Pelosi’s visit, ‚exercises blockading island to become routine‘
By GT staff reporter Published: Aug 03, 2022 07:21 PM Updated: Aug 03, 2022 10:11 PM
Joint military exercises around the island of Taiwan by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continued Wednesday with a joint blockade, sea assault and land and air combat trainings, involving the use of advanced weapons including J-20 stealth fighter jets and DF-17 hypersonic missiles after the drills started on Tuesday evening, when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed on the island which seriously violates China’s sovereignty.
The exercises are unprecedented as the PLA conventional missiles are expected to fly over the island of Taiwan for the first time, the PLA forces will enter area within 12 nautical miles of the island and that the so-called median line will cease to exist, experts said, noting that by surrounding Taiwan entirely, the PLA is completely blockading the island demonstrating the Chinese mainland’s absolute control over the Taiwan question.
The PLA Eastern Theater Command on Wednesday organized its affiliated Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, Strategic Support Force and Joint Logistic Support Force and conducted realistic combat-oriented joint exercises in the sea and air space to the north, southwest and southeast of the island of Taiwan, the PLA Eastern Theater Command said in a press release on the day.
Joint blockade, sea assault, land attack and air combat drills were at the core of the operation, as the exercises tested the troops‘ joint operational capabilities, said the press release.
The J-20 stealth fighter jet, H-6K bomber, J-11 fighter jet, Type 052D destroyer, Type 056A corvette and DF-11 short-range ballistic missile are among the weapons used in the drills, as shown in the photos attached to the press release.
Early warning aircraft and DF-17 hypersonic missiles also joined the exercises, according to a report by China Central Television.
Wednesday’s drills came after the PLA Eastern Theater Command started joint military operations around the island of Taiwan on Tuesday evening, involving joint maritime and air exercises in the sea and in the air space to the north, southwest and southeast of the island of Taiwan, long-range live-fire shooting in the Taiwan Straits, and conventional missile test launches to the east of the island of Taiwan.
The PLA will also conduct important military exercises and training activities including live-fire drills in six large maritime areas and their air space surrounding the island of Taiwan, in its north, northeast, east, south, southwest and northwest, from Thursday noon to Sunday noon, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Tuesday evening.
Unprecedented actions
This is the first time the PLA will launch live long-range artillery across the Taiwan Straits, in a move that will demonstrate the PLA’s firm will and strong capability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and thwart secessionist attempts by „Taiwan independence“ and external interfering forces, Zhang Junshe, a senior research fellow at the Naval Research Academy of the PLA, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
„If the conventional missiles of the PLA were to be launched from the mainland toward the west of Taiwan and hit targets to its east, this means that the missiles would fly over the island, which is unprecedented,“ Chinese mainland military expert Zhang Xuefeng told the Global Times.
He also pointed out that five of the drill zones are set to the east of the so-called median line of the Taiwan Straits, and this means that the existence of the line is denied through the concrete action of the PLA.
Some drill zones are also for the first time set to include areas within 12 nautical miles to the island of Taiwan, but since Taiwan is a part of China, Taiwan’s so-called territorial sea is also China’s territorial sea, Zhang Xuefeng said.
Also, the PLA drills surrounding Taiwan are intended to show that it is capable of blockading the entire island and of resolving the Taiwan question through non-peaceful ways, if the situation becomes irretrievable, observers said.
From the designated PLA military drills area, the operations could pose a threat to major ports and shipping lanes in Taiwan, forming a complete blockage. This blockage style could be one of the action plans taken in the future for achieving the reunification by force, Herman Shuai, a retired Taiwan lieutenant general, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
Two northern exercise areas designated by the PLA are located off the coast of Keelung Port and Taipei Port, the central exercise area is located off the Taichung Port, the southern exercise area is located off the Kaohsiung Port and the eastern one is located off the Hualien Port. The exercise areas are a „template“ for „locking down Taiwan,“ Shuai said. „If the PLA exercises take a long time, it will constitute a substantial blockage of Taiwan.“
The PLA‘ s drills this time are „comprehensive and highly targeted,“ showing the determination of resolving Taiwan question once and for all, Chinese mainland military expert Song Zhongping told the Global Times on Wednesday.
The drill should be viewed as a war plan rehearsal, Song said, „In the event of a future military conflict, it is likely that the operational plans currently being rehearsed will be directly translated into combat operations.“
„It means that our battle plan has been made clear to the US and the Taiwan authorities, and we are confident enough to inform them of the consequences of further provocation in this way,“ Song said.
Comparing to the Taiwan Straits crisis in 1996, the PLA’s military strength has been greatly enhanced, analysts say.
„In 1996, we didn’t have aircraft carriers, the Type 055 large destroyer, nor hypersonic missiles… Since then our ability to strike, capture and kill has greatly improved and our military options and confidence have increased,“ Song said.
Shuai believes that in 1996, Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities were relatively strong, the PLA’s projection capabilities were still insufficient, and the number of amphibious warfare ship was limited. Also the PLA’s Navy Marine Corps as well as Air Force did not have absolute advantages.
Therefore, at that time, the PLA did not have the capability of completely blocking the island. It only used the method of test-launching missiles to send warnings, but it did not pose any threat to the open seas of Taitung and Hualien, not to mention to US aircraft carriers, Shuai said. „But it is different now. After so many years of rapid development, the PLA, whether it is with the Type 055 large destroyer, aircraft carriers or amphibious landing ship, now fully possesses the strength to blockade the Taiwan Island.“
Not intercepting Pelosi’s flight does not mean a failure of the PLA. On the contrary, the Chinese mainland chose to avoid an incident that could trigger a World War III but instead to take Pelosi’s Taiwan visit as a chance to push forward the progress of reunification, starting with the island-blockading, combat-rehearsing drills that could become routine, analysts said.
Mainland authorities announced on Wednesday that a number of diehard „Taiwan secessionists“, two funds and multiple companies related to secessionist activities will be punished in accordance with the law.
Zhang Hua, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the law on punishing Taiwan secessionists is complete and in place in the mainland.
Taiwan secessionists can be judged according to Criminal Law for splitting the country, destroying the reunification of the motherland and endangering national security, the expert said.
Zhang Wensheng, deputy dean of the Taiwan Research Institute at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Wednesday that after the reunification, the Chinese mainland can collect evidence against Taiwan secessionists in accordance with criminal law, set up special courts to try them in absentia, and nail all those at large wherever they are.
In addition, the scope of sanctions can be extended to the family members of Taiwan secessionists, which means they’ll be banned from business exchanges with the mainland and the institutions they work for should also be included in the sanctions list, Zhang said.
Mainland experts said that it cannot be ruled out that more regulations against Taiwan secessionists will be adopted in the future. Considering that the Anti-Secession Law is more of a framework and principle law, the central government could formulate a specific law targeting Taiwan secessionists, similar to the national security law for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.”
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272108.shtml
Aufgeschoben ist eben nicht aufgehoben. Interessant ist, dass Chinas Seeblockade Taiwans, ähnliche Strategien der USA entgegenstehen, wie z. B. die Idee einer Seeblockade Chinas—Näheres dazu siehe noch das Global Reviewinterview von 2016 mit dem Vater der Offshore Controll TX Hammes:
Folgender Autor in der Frankfurter Rundschau hält Sanktionen Chinas, die sich zudem nicht auf Produkte konzentrieren, die für die chinesische Wirtschaft lebenswichtig sind, aber keinen Militärschlag für wahrscheinlich, zumal auch China die wirtschaftlichen Kosten fürchten würde. Aber schon eine Seeblockade Taiwans wäre ein Supergau, schon allein weil 50% der Halbleiterchips aus Taiwan, konkret TSMC stammen, ja auch die Chinesen davon abhängig seien.. Beachtlich die Fortschritte der Chinesen bei den Chips. Von 14 auf 7Nanometer.TSMC liegt bei 4 und die USA und Japan wollen jetzt einen 2 Nanometerchip herstellen. Mittels des US Chip Act, dem nun auch ein EU Chip Act folgen soll, hofft man jetzt die Chips im eigenen Lande fertigen zu lassen. Aber bis dahin ist es noch eine Zeitlang hin.
„Sollte China tatsächlich Taiwan angreifen, könne man das natürlich nicht einfach so hinnehmen, sagt Sebastian Dullien von der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung. „Die Frage ist: Wie geht man damit um?“ Sollte der Westen Sanktionen gegen China erlassen, wäre das ein „massivster wirtschaftlicher Schock“, zumal China wohl mit Gegensanktionen reagieren würde. „Die neueste Halbleiter-Generation wird nur in Taiwan und Südkorea hergestellt, wir bekämen also ein ganz, ganz massives Problem. Das wäre weltwirtschaftlich der Super-GAU.” Ein Super-GAU mit Ansage, denn die Abhängigkeit von taiwanischen Chips ist ähnlich groß wie die von russischem Gas..
Um die enormen Abhängigkeiten von TSMC und anderen Herstellern aus Fernost zu reduzieren, versuchen Europa und die USA, die heimische Halbleiterproduktion voranzubringen. Das geschieht zum Teil auch in Zusammenarbeit mit Herstellern aus Taiwan und Südkorea. „Ob und wie das schließlich klappen kann, ist allerdings noch sehr unklar“, sagt Expertin Liu. Die EU jedenfalls könnte schon Anfang 2023 den „European Chip Act“ auf den Weg bringen, ein milliardenschweres Programm zur Förderung der heimischen Halbleiterproduktion. Ebenfalls Anfang kommenden Jahres will Intel den Spatenstich für sein neues Halbleiterwerk in Magdeburg setzen, und auch Bosch will bis 2026 drei Milliarden Euro in sein Halbleitergeschäft investieren. Noch aber müssen sich die EU-Staaten auf eine gemeinsame Position einigen, was frühestens im Dezember passieren könnte.(…)
Nicht nur Taiwan und der Westen wären betroffen, sollte sich der Konflikt verschärfen. Auch für China selbst wären die wirtschaftlichen Kosten enorm. Denn trotz alle der Spannungen floriert der Handel zwischen Peking und Taipeh, und auch die chinesischen Hersteller sind auf die taiwanischen Halbleiter angewiesen. Beide Länder versuchen zwar, die gegenseitigen Abhängigkeiten zu verringern, bislang aber ohne großen Erfolg.
„China behauptet, dass es die wirtschaftlichen Kosten eines Konflikts mit Taiwan in Kauf nehmen würde, egal, wie hoch diese sind“, sagt die Kieler Analystin Wan-hsin Liu. Der Pelosi- Besuch sei dafür nicht Anlass genug. Sollte die Unabhängigkeitsdebatte in Taiwan aber an Fahrt gewinnen, „könnte sich die Situation verschärfen: Dann könnte die chinesische Regierung in der Tat sagen: China ist bereit zu tun, was nötig ist, um die Unabhängigkeit Taiwans zu verhindern, auch wenn es hohe wirtschaftliche Kosten für China selbst bedeutet.“
Liu glaubt, dass Peking dennoch alles dafür tun werde, um den Schaden für das eigene Land so gering wie möglich zu halten. Statt in Taiwan einzufallen, könnte die Volksrepublik gezielte Sanktionen gegen Taipeh verhängen. Erste Schritte dazu unternahm Peking bereits am Dienstag, als es den Import taiwanischer Erzeugnisse wie Meeresfrüchte, Tee und Honig untersagte. „Ausgenommen werden könnten taiwanische Produkte, die China unbedingt benötigt und nicht selbst herstellen kann. Da hat China eine gewisse Flexibilität und kann gut einschätzen, wie stark die eigenen Unternehmen betroffen sind. Das wäre besser kontrollierbar als ein Militärschlag gegen Taiwan.“ Noch aber, sagt sie, „ist es nicht so weit“.
Allerdings gibt es auch Stimmen aus der sogenannten „Peak-Power-Theorie“, die behaupten, dass Chinas Macht an ihre Grenzen gestoßen wäre und China sich im Niedergang befinde und daher eine abenteuerliche Außenpolitik starten würde. Außerdem weisen sie darauf hin, dass die Welt vor dem 1. Weltkrieg auch sehr voneinander abhängig und globalisiert war, aber das hat den Weltkrieg nicht verhindert.
Der China-Experte Professor van Ess kommentierte den Pelosi-Besuch wie folgt:
„Militärschlag ist tatsächlich im Moment noch nicht extrem wahrscheinlich, weil die USA diese Möglichkeit im Moment zu sehr eingeplant haben dürften, aber ich glaube, dass die Anerkennung der Seemeilen um Taiwan definitiv vorbei ist. Das macht die Situation für die Zukunft unberechenbar (auch die nahe). Ohne diese Reise hätte man den Status Quo wahren können, aber der ist jetzt Geschichte. Ich halte es nicht für unwahrscheinlich, dass die USA den Showdown ganz gerne frühzeitig (gehabt) hätten, weil sie ihn jetzt noch gewinnen könnten.“
Das ist die Frage. Zu welchen Mitteln Teile des US-Establishments und seiner Neointerventionisten bei der Demokratisierung anderer Staaten bereit waren und auch sind, dokumentiert Larry Wortzel, ehemaliger Assistant Army Attache an der US-Botschaft in Peking während der chinesischen Protestbewegung 1989 in China in seinem offenherzigen Artikel vom 13.Juni 2000 „Challenges as China’s Communist Leaders Ride the Tiger of Liberalization“, der sowohl Rückblick als auch Ausblick ist, wie sich der den Republikaner nahestehende Think Tank Heritage Foundation eine Demokratisierung Chinas vorstellt–nämlich als bewaffneten Aufstand, der zu militärischen Mitteln greift und auch zu einem Volkskrieg und Bürgerkrieg bereit ist. So gibt es durchaus US-Strategen wie Larry Wortzel , der davon spricht, dass man einen Konflikt um Taiwan initiieren solle, um die Volksbefreiungsarmee und damit die KP China zu blamieren mit der Perspektive eines regime changes.
http://www.heritage.org/research/lecture/challenges-as-chinas-communist-leader
Auch die RAND- Studie von 2016 „War with China- Thinking through the Unthinkable” betont, das ein sinoamerikanischer Krieg 2025 besser zu gewinnen sei für die USA als etwa 2035, wenngleich betont wird, dass dies ein langer Krieg würde und verlustreich für beide Seiten.
Umgekehrt waren es aber gerade die US-Militärs, einschliesslich Generalstabschef Milley, die dringend vom Pelosibesuch abrieten.