Fictional history is frowned upon, as is fictional futurology. Despite that, or perhaps because of it, a hypothetical scenario as a mind game:
Now that Germany has identified Canada as the future raw material superworld power, what if Trump or an imperialist US politician promotes and deploys a puppet government in Canada in the future or even militarily annexes the militarily weak and non-nuclear Canada, which is also a neighboring country to the resource-rich Arctic and established a Resource Empire and an American world like Putin?
An American friend who is a member of the Democrats commented: „Canada will not accept interference from the USA. Influence is possible but actual interference like you describe is unrealistic. „
Well, Democrats and Establishment Republicans could not imagine a demagogue like Trump in the past either, and let us remember the following:
“Trump praises the convoy of truckers
Published on 01/30/2022
Despite the high level of approval for the pandemic measures in Canada, there is now powerful resistance. In Ottawa, hundreds of truckers demonstrating in a convoy against compulsory vaccination were enthusiastically received. Premier Trudeau had to be taken to an undisclosed location. Canada never had such pictures. A convoy of hundreds of truck drivers and thousands of demonstrators gathered in front of Parliament in the capital Ottawa on Saturday. In the snow and freezing cold, they demonstrated, among other things, with a horn concert for an end to the corona vaccination requirement and further restrictions as a result of the pandemic. The protesters waved Canadian flags and criticized the government. A poster read that left-liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was a „coward“. The protest put the police on high alert. As a precaution, Trudeau and his family were taken to a secret location, the media reported.
In mid-January, Canada and the United States made vaccination a condition for crossing the border. Since then, unvaccinated Canadian truck drivers have had to go into a 14-day quarantine after returning from the United States. US truck drivers without vaccination are not allowed into the country at all. A trucker told Canadian television broadcaster CBC that he was vaccinated but was still taking part in the demonstration to support his unvaccinated colleagues: „It is wrong to force people to receive medical treatment against their will.“. Many people took part in the protest with their private vehicles. Conservative opposition leader Erin O’Toole wrote on Twitter that he had met with truckers. „I call on Justin Trudeau to meet with these hard-working Canadians to hear their concerns.“ (…) At a rally, former US President Donald Trump praised the demonstration in Ottawa. „Canadian truckers are doing far more to defend American freedom than our own political leaders,“ Trump said Saturday night in Conroe, Texas. „We want these great Canadian truckers to know that we’re with them all the way,“ Trump said. He did not go into Trudeau and his pandemic policy. The relationship between Trump and Trudeau, who has been in power since 2015, is considered broken.”
So far „interference“, although not yet a Canadian Capitol Hill or the scenario, but the whole thing still sounds like the now more political version of the film „Convoy/ Konvi“ from the 80s with Kris Kristoferson and Ali Mc Graw (formerly: Love story) on. But a couple of points on the US friend’s comment:
„THE“ USA – it’s becoming more and more divided between the political poles, polarized and radicalized. It is already clear that Biden would not do that. But Trump’s truck driver intervention was such an „interference“ that „Canada has never seen anything like this“ – primarily to mobilize supporters within the USA, but also to cramme through the US transport to Canada and also to weaken the liberal Trudeau with the help of Canadian auxiliaries. The interference was still far from the scenario, but rudimentary. Trump also put immense pressure on Canada and Mexico with the NAFTA successor agreement. I could imagine the hypothetical scenario under the following parameters: In the event of a weakening of the US international position and a withdrawal of the USA from Europe and the Indo-Pacific, if China should be successful and Putin manages to destroy the EU by means of Le Pen and AfD by means of a Frexit and Dexit. If a US right-winger occurs who traditionally sees the sphereof US external expansion more pan-American and on the American continent and as the last sphere of influence and last resort, as it was in the beginning of US history, as the new Monroe Doctrine and the Americas as its heartland and like Putin’s Eurasia or Novorussia/Russian world as the American world. Here then especially Canada, since there are still mainly Anglo-Saxons with the exception of Quebec , unlike in Mexico or Latin America. Especially since it could also lead to a Trumpization of Canada. And if the USA was going to war in the Middle East and Iraq over oil, why not because of the strategic raw materials that are existential for the USA and the world economy as the competition to secure and to controll them is becoming increasingly fierce. Especially since this could be an interesting addition for politicians who do not want green capitalism and the Green New Deal but want a resource empire that goes beyond oil and gas. However, another argument against this is that while the US economy is also dependent on strategic raw materials for its industry, it has another structure than Russia, which is primarily economically dependent on exports of raw materials as part of their economic power while the US economy at the moment is not,even if the USA has now become an oil and gas exporter, but without belonging to OPEC or OPEC plus.
The Canada brain game is also an attempt to understand Putin’s thinking, the idea of a resource empire and the Russian world. Kind of an analogy. Of course it’s quite unrealistic at the moment, but it’s interesting to think about the variables and parameters under which such a scenario might occur or might not occur and what the differences between the US and Russia are. But who would have thought during the era of the globalization hype and the „change through trade“ neoliberalism and „It’s the economy, stupid“ in the 90s and subsequent decades that one would wake up in the financial crisis of 2008 and in the 2020s in a new cold war, nationalistic populism worldwide, increasing decoupling, bloc formation and „security trumps economy“ paradigma of Mearsheier´s offensive realism?
Former Putin and Gazprom adviser Dr. Alexander Rahr commented: „Everything is possible. Trump was also hungry for Greenland.“
For our scenario, it will probably still take some time before Putin can push the USA out of Europe, can use Erdogan to paralyze NATO, can use Orban, Le Pen and the German AfD to smash the EU. Since there is still some time until the next French and US presidential elections, the Kremlin is now backing the AfD, which was also welcomed by Lavrov in the Kremlin for this purpose and with the prospect of a Dexit and as a hoped-for sanctions breaker. After the Left Party announced mass protests and demonstrations for 17.9. , but is divided on Russia policy between the Wagenknecht and Jan van Aken wings, the AfD is now following suit with Monday demonstrations and probaly „We are the people“ slogans:
„Protests against energy prices: AfD announces „hot autumn“.
The AfD is planning a „hot autumn“ with weekly demonstrations. She also doesn’t shy away from praising Putin – he is currently a reliable energy supplier, says party leader Chrupalla. The AfD wants to attract new attention with a protest campaign against inflation and rising energy prices. AfD chairman Tino Chrupalla said in Berlin on Tuesday that the federal government was „not in Germany’s interest“ with the sanctions against Russia and the resulting increase in the price of natural gas and other energy sources. The AfD will therefore “take to the streets weekly from autumn on Mondays”. It is hoped that there will be a lot of support “from the public and companies”. Chrupalla said that the AfD was the only party „really“ demanding the immediate use of the completed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which has not yet been put into operation. The AfD leader said Russia was able to deliver the “cheapest gas” to Germany. The AfD calls for higher relief payments. Chrupalla also said that he currently considers Russian President Vladimir Putin to be a „reliable supplier“. Putin himself said he wanted to fulfill the gas supply contracts with Germany. If the sanctions that Germany, together with other EU countries, imposed on Russia were lifted, then “the gas would be reliably delivered again”. The AfD is also demanding higher relief payments for the population from the federal government in order to compensate for rising energy prices. The basic security must be increased in line with inflation, the basic income tax allowance must be increased. When asked how the AfD wanted to differentiate itself from the Left Party in its demands and planned demonstrations, the AfD chairman said that the Left Party’s offer “contradicts our fundamentals”. For example, the Left Party is not united in its support for the end of the sanctions against Russia. On posters, the AfD promises a „hot autumn instead of cold feet“ and supplements this statement with the demand „our country first“. Chrupalla said that the AfD wanted to hold its demonstrations on a Monday because it „makes sense to stretch your feet after the weekend“; The AfD also organized its corona demonstrations on Mondays. Regarding the fact that the AfD will also see members of right-wing extremist organizations among the participants at its demonstrations, the party chairman said that anyone who wants to demonstrate with the AfD is “cordially invited”; there will be „no attitude tests“, so Chrupalla. The AfD chairman also did not see his party falling behind groups that are already calling for street protests; the mobilization begins “only now”, he said. Although his party will not call for demonstrations together with right-wing extremist groups, it will not prevent members or sympathizers of such groups from demonstrating at an AfD event. This also applies to flags or slogans that did not come from the AfD. Chrupalla said, „I support everything that is allowed on flags in Germany“.