Das Mullahregime setzt jetzt scheinbar auf die Angst vor einer Syriazation of Iran. Als Leitartikel auf der ersten Seite der Tehran Times „A Syria Recipe for Iran“ wird die Bevölkerung angesichts eines Anschlags vor einem blutigen Bürgerkrieg wie in Syrien samt Staatszerfall gewarnt:

“A Syria recipe for Iran

By Mehran Shamsuddin October 1, 2022 – 20:17

On Friday, the wave of unrest in Iran took a new turn when a terrorist attack rocked the southwestern province of Sistan-Baluchistan.  The terrorists attacked police stations and public properties in Zahedan after Friday prayer rituals. Hossein Modarres Khiyabani, governor-general of Sistan-Baluchistan, said 19 people were killed and 20 wounded in the clashes in Zahedan. General Seyed Hamid Reza Hashemi, the head of IRGC intelligence in the province who goes by the pseudonym of Seyed Ali Mousavi, was gunned down during the terrorist attack. 

“Those who tried to take over the police station were terrorists and these individuals went on setting fire to public properties. They plundered and set ablaze a number of chain stores belonging to the people. They also did damage banks and government institutions,” the provincial governor told IRNA. 

Protests in Iran began two weeks ago over the death in police custody of Maha Amini. Mahsa Amini collapsed as a result of a stroke suffered in the custody based on footage released by police authorities. The incident caused huge anger and sorrow in Iran, prompting the country’s highest political echelons to highlight the need to investigate the incident. Iranian President Ayatollah Seyed Ebrahim ordered an investigation into the tragic death. He also spoke to the family of Amini to offer condolences and assure them about following up on the case. 

“I learned about this incident during my trip to Uzbekistan, and I immediately ordered my colleagues to investigate the matter especially. I assure you that I will demand this issue from the responsible institutions so that its dimensions are clarified and no rights are violated,” President Raisi told the family, adding, “Your daughter is like my own daughter, and I feel that this incident happened to one of my loved ones. Please accept my condolences.”

But protest soon turned violent amid Western propaganda reminiscent of the early years of the 2010s, when Western media fanned the flames of protests in Syria and Libya in what later paved the way for the two Arab countries‘ near total destruction at the hand of transnational terrorists and Western-backed opposition groups.

Western media outlets and those based in the West have in recent weeks focused on propagating a narrative that is similar to what they did when covering early protests in Syria and Libya: Radicalizing the atmosphere through pushing forward harsh political polarizations. 

Independent analysts have raised alarm bells about the possibility of the Syrianization of Iran unrests. Ali Alizadeh, a London-based political analyst, has said that the West seeks to replicate what it did in Syria and Libya in Iran. 

Alizadeh said Western officials – like Samantha Power – who were behind the destruction of Syria and Libya are now expressing support for protests in Iran. “Exactly the same scenario and the same figures,” Alizadeh said of the similarity between the unrests in Iran the two forgoing Arab countries. 

He called on the leaders of the so-called “progressive movement” of Iran to denounce “war criminals” such as Power. “Despite all the resemblances to Libya and Syria, not a single one of this so-called progressive movement distances himself from these war criminals. Not a single one cries out that we don’t need the backing of you criminals. That’s why we say these protests are of a reactionary nature and do nothing but pave the way for imperialist interventions,” the London-based analyst said.

The warning by Alizadeh comes amid blatant incitement from Iran’s enemies. Israel is a case in point. “Protests will only succeed in toppling the Iranian regime if they explode rapidly and shake the regime to its foundations before it has time to catch its breath,” wrote the Jerusalem Post. 

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/477215/A-Syria-recipe-for-Iran

Vom Ausland würden „Terroristen“ angeleitet ein Syrien-und Lybienszenario nun auch zur Zerstörung Irans hinzubekommen. Die Drahtzieher seien neben den USA, GB und Israel diesselben wie früher und als Strippenzieherin mit Kontinuität wird die ehemalige UNbotschafterin unter Obama und jetzige Entwicklungshilfeministerin Samantha Power genannt, die als Kriegsverbrecher gebrandmarkt werden müssten. Warum kommen die Iraner auf die Idee,dass Samantha Power für Lybien und Syrien und nun auch im Iran die Strippenzieherin ist? Sie ist ja unter Biden in der Entwicklungshilfe bei US AID tätig.Bestenfalls könnte man noch mutmaßen, dass sie mittels der UNO oder der Expatorganisation International Diaspora Engagement Alliance die iranische Exilgemeinde anleitet, aber die Vorwürfe werden gar nicht begründet. Als „Beweis“ der Bewaffnung der Opposition wird aber nur ein Attentat auf ein Mitglied der IRGC und Angriff auf öffentliches Eigentum in Balutschistam genannt. Die kurdische iranische Opposition im Irak hat ja offiziell erklärt, dass sie auf die vorherigen Drohnenangriffe der IRGCs nicht mit Anschlägen oder militärischen Mitteln antworten wolle. Stecken da balutschische Seperatisten dahinter? Was ist eigentlich mit den Volksmuddjahedin? Konkret wird kein Verdacht ausgesprochen. Aber bisher fehlt den Massenprotesten noch die systematische Zielrichtung: Die Eroberung von kritischen Infrastrukturen, ein Generalstreik, auch in der Ölindustrie, die allgemeine Bewaffnung , die Einnahme wirtschaftlicher und politischer Zentren. Also all das, was Lenin in seinem Brief an die Räterepublikrevolutionare 1918/1919 in München nach seiner erfolgreichen Oltoberrevolution 1017 als fehlend anmahnte, um eine wirkliche Revolution durchzuziehen, weswegen diese ja auch scheiterte und die Jerusalem Post den jetzgen Massenprotesten auch größere Erfolgsaussichten abspricht. Bisher scheint es sich mit der balutschischen Ausnahme immer noch um mehr spontane Strassenkämpfe mit den Basiji zu handeln. Da eine erfolgreiche militärische Kampagne gegen Irans Atomanlagen aufgrund der neuen unteridischen Anlagen auszuscheiden scheint, bleibt ein Regime Change wohl die einzige Option ist,um eine Atommacht Iran zu verhindern und ein freiheitliches System zu errichten. Aber ob es bei dem jetzigen Stand der Bewegung dazu kommt, ist fraglich. Andernfalls müsste das recht schnell und gut organisiert und putschartig gehen, da andernfalls allerdings ein neues Syrien herauskommen könnte. Zudem auch die Jerusalem Post titelte:

“Why the Iranian protests will fail, at least this time – analysis

Despite heavy media coverage and excitement by Iran critics, there is almost zero chance of the protests in Iran will topple the ayatollahs.

Updated: SEPTEMBER 29, 2022 20:18

It would be great if the protests in Iran, prompted by the regime’s killing of Mahsa Amini by the morality police for not covering her hair to their standards, toppled the ayatollahs and led to a better world.

Yet, despite heavy media coverage and excitement by Iran critics, there is almost zero chance of that happening – at least at this stage.

What does this revolution lack in order to be successful?

Successful revolutions, in Iran and elsewhere, have crucial elements to them that this wave of protests is missing.

First, there is no protest leader, and most potential leaders were under house arrest long before this latest wave started.

The regime learned from the 2009 protests that it cannot grow into a revolution without coherent leadership and coordination.

Former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo told The Jerusalem Post that 2009 might have been a golden opportunity to remove the threat of the Islamic Republic’s fanatical leaders, but that the US was too haunted by its coup of Iranian leader Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953.

In that coup, the CIA and Britain’s MI6 helped remove Mosaddegh. Eventually, anger at that coup and at the US’s installed ruler, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, contributed to the Islamic Revolution and the ayatollah’s unqualified hatred of America for the last 43 years.

This held the US and others back from intervening to help the protesters 13 years ago.

The protesters lack one more thing: a clear cohesive message to unite disparate ethnic and class groups. There is the women’s rights angle, but many of those protesters’ beliefs are limited to reformers who are a minority compared to the ruling regime, or even the pragmatists, some of whom criticize the regime, but are generally against ideas favored by feminists and the West.

Even if the reformers were crafty enough to form an alliance with the pragmatists, none of these groups have key allies who can use force on their behalf.

They do not have support in the military, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is deeply intertwined with the fate of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his allies.

A revolution does not need to control all the institutions that wield force, but usually, it needs at least one highly sympathetic arm on its side.

The regime is well prepared for the demonstrations

Not only that, but the ayatollahs learned from the fall of the USSR and some other dictatorships when the professional military refused to fire on its own citizens, that another group was needed to maintain domestic order – the Basij.

There are no accurate estimates for the Basij’s manpower, but some put its numbers at one million or even millions.

Their ranks are usually filled by fanatics, hooligans or a mix of the two who have no compunction about beating or slaughtering their own people for protesting.

But we are in 2022, a time when revolutions have happened through the Internet and social media.

Iran has learned from these soft Internet revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia. With technological support from China and Russia, it has developed tools for shutting down the country’s internet and all cellphone service.

If the Internet was once a space where democracy could spread too quickly for incompetent old-school authoritarians to compete, in 2022, authoritarians have control when they need to – even using the Internet to identify protest leaders.

No insurrection has yet found a new playing field or tactic to outflank Iran, China, Russia or other authoritarian regimes since these regimes jumped ahead of democrats in their use of technology to oppress dissent.

The past does not necessarily predict the future

Next, many analysts make the mistake of looking at the protests of 1979 and earlier Iranian protest waves as a guideline for understanding the present – a point of view that would mistakenly lead to the conclusion that very long protests make revolution more likely.

Yet, after the 2009 protests, Khamenei has consistently used a playbook of temporarily showing a soft side and willingness to dialogue with protesters if they end their activities within a short period. That is followed by an unregulated brutal crackdown if the protests make it past that unspecified period of time.

Also, the longer the protests go on, the more confident the regime seems to be that it will not fall, and the more it appears ready to act in the most brutal manner possible to end them, while discounting them as being led by foreign traitors.

It seems that post-2022, protests will only succeed in toppling the Iranian regime if they explode rapidly and shake the regime to its foundations before it has time to catch its breath.

This is partly because the regime does not care how much its wider public suffers, and because the wider public has become used to unusual levels of suffering after spending most of the last decade under heavy global or Western sanctions.

All of that said, the future is not hopeless.

Khamenei has had several encounters with poor health over the last decade. When he dies, neither his son, Mojtaba, nor Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, will likely command the same loyalty of the IRGC and the clerics’ class.

A fracturing of unity in those groups could finally give those seeking to rebel the power they need to win or weaken the regime’s ability to crack down enough and allow protesters to overwhelm it.

Alternatively, the cumulative damage by periodic protests every few years could harm the economy enough or slowly turn enough key economic players against the regime to transform holes in the regime’s support into a chasm.

But like the stunning and sudden fall of the USSR in 1991, no one knows whether we are on the verge of such a game-changing moment or if the regime’s tools of oppression may be strong enough to let it hold on for some decades more before the internal rot of authoritarianism and corruption catches up with it. “

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-718509

Von der iranische Opposition bekam man zum letzten Mal offen bei ihrem Bündnistreffen „Free Iran“ im Juni 2018 in Paris mit, wobei die Volksmudjahedin unter Leitung der kopftuchtragenden Frau ihres verstorbenen Führers  noch im Zentrum standen und Trumps und Boltons Hoffnungsträger waren. Ich habe die Volksmudjahedin in den 80er Jahren kennengelernt, als ich im Münchner ASTA tätig war. Sie hatten immer ihre Infostände in der Mensa und waren ganz stolz , dass sie eine eigene Panzertruppe, Armee und Guerilla hatten und auch einen bewaffneten Kampf gegen die Mullahs führten. Sie wurden von den Ajatollahs als sehr gefährlich eingeschätzt und auch massenhaft ermordet, da sie das Regime sowohl ideologisch aufgrund ihres Volksislams wie auch militärisch kämpften und stramm leninistisch organisiert waren. Ihre Ideologie war aber ein seltsamer Mix aus Marxismus und Volksislam und man wusste nicht genau, ob sie nun Marxisten oder aber verkappte Islamisten oder eine Art islamische Theologie der Befreiung waren und sind. Bei den meisten Iranern blieben sie aber desavouriert, da sie auf Seiten Saddam Husseins im Irak-Irankrieg mitgekämpft haben und auch danach von ihm unterstützt wurden. Nach der Irakinvasion 2003 würden sie aber von den USA entwaffnet, wenngleich Bolton immer noch seine schützende Hand über sie hatte, zumal sie über ihr Untergrundnetz im Iran noch nützliche Informationen über das iranische Atomprogramm lieferten. Aber inzwischen ist in der Opposition im Exil wie auch im Iran eine neue Generation herangewachsen und die stehen nicht so auf Volksislam und Kopftuch mehr. Die Jerusalem Post schätzt jedoch ein, dass es der heutigen Massenbewegung gerade an dieser konspirativen, leninistischen Organisationsstruktur fehlt, um diesmal zu siegen. Aber vielleicht dann das nächste Mal, wenn die Opposition organisatorische Untergrundskerne aufgebaut hat, die dann den Massenkampf anleiten können. Möglicherweise bei Nachfolgekämpfen nach dem absehbaren Tod des Geistigen Führers Khameini, insofern er seine Nachfolge nicht schon frühzeitig regelt und im Falle von Nachfolgeturbulenzen im Falle eines weniger im Klerus beliebten Führer, insofern in diesem Machtvakuum dann nicht die Iranischen Revolutionsgarden putschen und eine Art islamistische SS- Militärdiktatur errichten würden.

Währenddessen auch Massenproteste im Irak im Kampf zwischen proiranischen und nationalirakischen Kräften, vor allem unter Muktadar El Sadr, der sich zwar offiziell zurückgezogen hat, aber zu Massenprotesten gegen die Regierung aufrief. Die Revolutionäre im Irak scheinen schon weiter als im Iran. Die Protestierenden marschieren jetzt schon direkt zu den Regierungssitzen, nicht nur in der Green Zone Baghdads, sondern auch im Süden. 560 Tote an einem Tag, schon heftig. Unklar noch die Rolle von El Sadr in der Zukunft. Was sagt eigentlich Großajatollah Sistani dazu? Die Forderungen der Protestierenden zielen inzwischen nicht mehr nur auf eine neue Regierung ab, sondern auf ein neues politisches System, dass den alten Ethnien-, Konfessions- und Stammesclanproporz, den es auch im Libanon gibt und auch im Irak zur politischen und wirtschaftlichen Paralyse führt, wie auch exorbitanter Korruption ersetzen und beseitigen soll. Wobei die meisten Protestierenden dies auch als Einfluss der proiranischen Kräfte und dem Einfluss des Irans sehen, den sie beseitigen wollen- ob nun der nationalislamistische Muktadar El Sadr oder die mehr säkularen Kräfte bis hin zur Kommunistischen Partei Iraks, die mit Sadr zuvor ein Wahlbündnis eingingen. Vielleicht braucht es nicht mehr viel zu einer Revolution oder einem neuen Bürgerkrieg, insofern er dies nicht schon fast ist. 

“Scores of Iraqis injured in anti-government protests in Baghdad

Teargas and stun grenades used by security forces as unrest over poverty and corruption flares up in the capital and other cities Reuters

Sat 1 Oct 2022 21.07 BSTLast modified on Sat 1 Oct 2022 21.26 BST 

Iraqi security forces have fired teargas and stun grenades to disperse stone-throwing protesters in clashes that wounded scores of people near Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, where hundreds marked the anniversary of anti-government unrest in 2019.

At least 86 people were wounded on Saturday, about half of them members of the security forces, and 38 protesters were hit by rubber bullets.

“Infiltrated elements” were attacking security forces with molotov cocktails and hunting rifles, Iraq’s military said.

Security personnel had deployed checkpoints across the city, closed bridges and squares, and erected walls across some of the bridges leading to the fortified Green Zone that houses government headquarters and foreign embassies.

Protesters in the square waved the Iraqi flag and chanted: “We want to overthrow the regime.”

“We took part in today’s peaceful protests because we want our demands to be met … we want security, jobs and our simple rights … we are not here to fight or shed blood,” said Laith, a young protester from Baghdad.

A few metres away, a Reuters reporter witnessed security forces firing teargas and stun grenades to disperse protesters who had tried to tear down a wall blocking the Republic Bridge leading across the Tigris to the Green Zone.

Protests also erupted in southern provinces. In the city of Nasiriya, hundreds gathered in the central Haboubi Square and many marched towards the provincial building and threw molotov cocktails.

In Diwaniya and Basra, protesters gathered in front of the provincial government building and burned tyres.

In 2019 protests erupted against then prime minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s government, with demonstrators demanding an overhaul of a political system they saw as profoundly corrupt and keeping most Iraqis in poverty.

More than 560 people, mostly unarmed demonstrators but also members of the security forces, were killed as Iraqi security forces and unidentified gunmen cracked down.

Mahdi quit under pressure from the protests, with the powerful Shia Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr the biggest winner in an election last October.

In June Sadr withdrew all his lawmakers, nearly a quarter of parliament, and resorted to whipping up street protests after his movement failed to form a government, leading to some of the worst clashes the country has seen in years.

“Not this government and neither the previous one. We are against the political system in its entirety. We want drastic change. It is enough,” daily wage worker Yasser said.

Saturday’s gathering raised fears of more unrest and tension among power-hungry politicians that could further delay the formation of a government after Sadr quit politics at the end of August.

Four rockets landed in the Green Zone on Wednesday during a partial lockdown as parliament was convening, wounding seven security personnel, and another four rockets fired from eastern Baghdad landed around the zone on Thursday.“

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/01/scores-of-iraqis-injured-in-anti-government-protests-in-baghdad

Nachdem der Libanon nun auch droht wegen des Wirtschaftskollapses ein failed state zu sein, sich der Volkszorn auch gegen die proiranische Hisbollah richten könnte, zumal die Explosion im Hafen von Beirut noch unaufgeklärt ist und die Libanesen die iranischen Massenproteste als Vorbild sehen könnten, versucht sich Hisbollah- Generalsekretär Nasrallah nun als Retter des libanesischen Vaterlands aufzuspielen. Nachdem er drohte israelische Gasanlagen in umstrittenen Meeresterritorium anzugreifen, sind die USA nun in Verhandlungen mit dem Libanon über die Meeresgrenzen eingetreten und lobt dies Nasrallah und stellt seine Kriegsrhetorik gegen Israel vorerst mal zurück. Man hofft wohl, dass die Massenproteste im Iran sich wieder legen werden, die USA nach dem Scheitern eines regime change doch einem Irandeal zustimmen,  man Volkszorn im Libanon gegen die Hisbollah angesichts einer möglichen Einigung über die Meeresgrenzen, die auch den Weg für Gaslieferungen nach Libanon freimachen könnten, besänftigt kann.Zudem glaubt die Jerusalem Post, dass Nasrallah sich zweimal überlegen würde weiter gegen Israel vorzugehen, da dieses recht erfolgreiche Operationen im Gaza durchgeführt hätte und auch jederzeit gegen die Hisbollah im Libanon starten könne.

“Hezbollah’s Nasrallah: US border demarcation offer ‚very important step‘

The US mediator to Lebanon on Saturday sent a maritime border demarcation proposal to President Michel Aoun and the caretaker government.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

Published: OCTOBER 1, 2022 17:57

Updated: OCTOBER 1, 2022 19:46

A LARGE poster depicting Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is on display in the town of Yaroun, southern Lebanon, this past week. After the just-completed Israeli operation in Gaza, Nasrallah may think twice before starting hostilities, says the writer.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech on Saturday in which he responded to the Lebanese government negotiating a maritime demarcation line with Israel.

He refrained from making threats toward Israel in his speech, a departure from previous addresses the Hezbollah leader has made. This means that Hezbollah appears to be toning down the rhetoric. Hezbollah’s allies in Iran are currently facing an unprecedented wave of protest.

Nasrallah said that the “maritime border demarcation file has reached a decisive stage in light of the mediator’s letter.” He said that „Hezbollah supports the Lebanese state regarding the talks with the US mediator….Maritime victory is the fruit of the national solidarity and will help Lebanon cope with an economic crisis.”

„Hezbollah supports the Lebanese state regarding the talks with the US mediator….Maritime victory is the fruit of the national solidarity and will help Lebanon cope with an economic crisis.”

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah

The US mediator to Lebanon on Saturday sent a maritime border demarcation proposal to President Michel Aoun and the caretaker government. The US has been trying to help with a maritime demarcation deal for more than a year. 

Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser for energy security at the US State Department has been working on this issue and has made trips to Lebanon and met with Lebanese officials.

However, Hezbollah has accused Hochstein of being biased and Hezbollah has threatened gas rigs and energy fields off the coast of Israel.  

During his speech, Nasrallah took a more judicious view of the maritime border talks than he had in the past, saying that they appear to be reaching a “positive outcome thanks to dialogue” between the US and Lebanon, although he did not make any mention of Israel’s role in the negotiations.

Nasrallah indicates that the full picture will become clear in the coming days. He also mentioned Lebanon’s continued failure to form a government.

Pro-Iranian elements

Lebanon, like Iraq, has a strong pro-Iranian element and neither country now has a functioning government. Iran is also facing protests; meaning that several states where Iran has a role are all on the verge of chaos.  

Nasrallah said that „the last parliament session proved that whoever wants to elect a president of the republic must move away from the logic of defiance in favor of consultation,“ adding that „time is running out with regard to forming a government.“

Nasrallah also condemned people migrating from Lebanon to Cyprus, referring to a recent case where migrants died. “Migrating in death boats is like a crime,“ he said, calling for „a serious judicial investigation into death boats.“ 

He then went on to accuse the US of creating ISIS. „ISIS was made by America, and the one who is still protecting it and facilitating its financing and the transfer of additional numbers to it is the American intelligence services.”

He weaved together a conspiracy in which he mentioned ISIS and other elements that have sought to undermine Iran’s regime.

He also referenced recent “rumors” about Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It was not clear if he was referring to rumors that the leader is in ill health or that some clergy in Iran are displeased with the leadership. Hezbollah needs support from Iran and he is concerned about the protests.

He claims that people in the region are “inciting” against Iran, blaming the US and Gulf states for stirring up protests in Iran. 

Nasrallah explained that „the Islamic Republic does not want anything from the countries of the region and does not have any ambitions in Iraq’s oil,“ wondering „how can the Iraqis forget Iran’s stance and open its weapons and money stores to defend Iraq against ISIS?“

This was an apparent reference to current tensions in Baghdad where people are angry at pro-Iran parties stealing Iraq’s wealth. „If there was no Islamic Republic, where would Iraq and Lebanon be today; and what dark and bleak era would we have entered in our region,” he said.

He also mentioned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and increased tensions between Russia and the US. He predicted the US did not want to fight Russia.  

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-718679