Ukraine war: Putin and Biden – the rabbit and the hedgehog
It looks like a race between the rabbit and the hedgehog. Again coup rumors against Putin in view of the disastrous Russian military in Ukraine setbacks and the apparent expansion of the partial mobilization, this time allegedly by the FSB, of which one does not know whether it is the usual Kremlin astrology:
„Kremlin chief „is panicking“: Is the FSB secret service working to topple Putin?“ https://www.merkur.de/politik/nds-wladimir-putin-fallen-geheimdienst-ukraine-krieg-news-fsb-putsch-91896902.html
Meanwhile, Biden still fears Trump’s possible re-election in 2024, which Putin is also hoping for, and warns of an impeachment after the midterm elections, although it is unclear whether this is a campaign bugbear to mobilize previously passive democratic voters or whether it is realistic.
„Biden fears impeachment if Republicans win: ‚I’m not kidding'“
When asked by Global Review what this warning of impeachment is about, a member of the US Democrats wrote:
„Any member of the House, at any time, can introduce a bill to impeach a president. If the GOP gets a majority in the House, it is very likely that the more extreme members of the GOP will insist upon an impeachment bill coming to a vote. Prior to the vote, the bill will need to be debated in a House committee and get a majority vote in that committee. It can then be brought to the floor of the House for a further debate and a vote. If a majority of the House agrees, then Biden would be impeached. This, however, has no immediate effect. All it does is kick off a formal trial in the Senate. After that trial, two thirds of the Senate would need to vote to remove Biden from office something that is very unlikely. Although chances are good that an impeachment bill would be voted on in the House, the chances that a majority would vote in favor of impeachment is not certain since some Republicans may refuse to vote with such flimsy evidence. They also remember that their impeachment of Bill Clinton was a disaster for their party. If Kevin McCarthy finds that there is no majority for an impeachment, he will probably not bring it to a vote. If a majority in the House would vote in favor, he would be “impeached” but not removed from office. What Biden is warning about is that the GOP will try to do this without grounds for pure political malice. It will consume all of the time in Congress without accomplishing anything. There is also talk that the GOP will try impeaching members of the Biden cabinet.”
The actual danger therefore lies less in impeachment and more in the long-term paralysis of the US Congress due to destructive fundamental opposition in the sense of the GOP mastermind Newt Gingrich.
What is clear, however, is that both Biden and Putin are weakened. But in the US, the mood regarding the Ukraine war is changing, and Biden is noticing that too. Asking Selensky to signal a willingness to negotiate can be a tactical maneuver to show goodwill( since Selensky recently rejected negotiations, especially with Putin, and Melnyk is even demanding final victory) in order to take the wind out of the sails of the Trumpists, US and European critics of the Ukraine war or Biden is really changing his mind right now. In this regard, one can also look forward to the Biden-Xi meeting at the G20 summit in Bali. The USA approved Scholz’s visit to China and the COSCO compromise, apparently the USA does not want any polarization at the moment, and Scholz has also asked China to put pressure on Putin and China has warned Putin against the use of nuclear weapons Conversely, according to the Japanese Asashi Shimbum China has asked Scholz- Germany to play a mediating role in ending the Ukraine war, also with regard to the design of a new “European security architecture”. Meanwhile, Mützenich claims that Ukraine has drawn up a terror list against Germans who have spoken out in favor of negotiations and that he has been threatened. Ukraine, in turn, denies the existence of such a terror list. This doesn’t seem to deter others: A joint book „Perspectives after the Ukraine War“ by Merkel’s former military adviser General ret. Vad, Nida-Rümelin, Vollmer and Weidenfeld (CAP), which advocates peace negotiations and proposes a new European security architecture will be published soon.
Meanwhile, Erdogan, who has since extended the grain deal between Ukraine and Russia, and Orban are still opposed to NATO membership for Sweden and Finland. They want concessions in return. In the case of Sweden, Erdoagn has a first success, as they want to stop supporting the Kurdish YPG: “NATO candidate Sweden is responding to Turkey’s demands
(…) According to Billstrom, Sweden will stop supporting two Kurdish groups. Both the Kurdish militia YPG and its political arm PYD should no longer receive any support from Stockholm. The foreign minister said this in a radio interview with the Swedish radio station SVT. Both organizations are linked to the Kurdish Workers‘ Party PKK. The PKK is banned in Germany and is classified as a terrorist organization by the European Union.”
However, it is possible that Erdogan is not satisfied with the end of the supposed Swedish support of the PKK and YPG and the possible extradition of PKK and Gülen people, which he can sell as a foreign policy success in the election campaign, and that the decision will be delayed until 2023 in order to get further and fundamental NATO concessions in the coming conflict with Greece over the Aegean Islands and the Lausanne Treaty. In the case of Orban it is not yet clear what he wants from NATO and the USA. Most recently, his justice minister called for an EU diplomatic initiative in Ukraine and an end to sanctions against Russia.