Munich Security Conference: Day-to day and Tit-for tat Politics or the perspective of strategy?

Munich Security Conference: Day-to day and Tit-for tat Politics or the perspective of strategy?

MSC: Kamala Harris and Macron are coming, who is coming from the German side? Scholz or Baerbock again? Selensky and Poland are likely to push for fighter jets. Furthermore, in addition to the Ukraine, Turkey and Syria will also be important issues because of the unforeseen earthquake and the northward expansion of NATO. Iran might fall behind in terms of attention. Also in terms of reconstruction aid. Can and does the EU want to shoulder all this? The USA will also address the importance of Ukraine as „beacon of Freedom“ and part of the geopolitical Black Sea region, as well as China and the sian pivot/Indo- Pacific, maybe also if the USA can fight a two war theater. In any case, it will be interesting to see whether there will be a strategic debate beyond the daily updated demands for arms deliveries, i.e. reactive politics. The announced German National Security Strategy NSS is likely to take some time. Claudia Major was the only one who pointed out i the talkshow Lanz that such a strategic determination would be needed. On the one hand with regard to the war goals and on the other hand also to the strategic question of what leadership role Germany intends to play in and after the Ukraine war and to what extent . At the last MSC, Timothy Garton Ash and Roettgen had hinted at this in a short question to Baerbock about a new Ostpolitik, with Baerbock only very vaguely saying “European peace order Helsinki 2.0” as the catchphrase. That was before the war. So far there have been no significant contributions, apart from the book by General Vad, Antje Vollmer, Nida-Rumelin and Weidenfeld „Europe, Perspectives after the Ukraine War“. Do you want a Europe with or without Russia? And if so, with which Russia? Or: New Iron Curtain, with a locking bar ala Motly from the Baltic States to the Black Sea region region to Central Asia? It will be interesting to see if this strategic perspective will be discussed at all.

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