Is the West really stronger than ever, as always claimed with unanimous confidence in victory? If you look at the debates about arms deliveries to Ukraine, you get a different impression. On the one hand, the often-cited „too little, too late“ and also that NATO has not switched to a war economy and the armaments industry could at the moment not deliver fast enough and in large enough quantities, especially since its own stocks and defense capabilities are then increasingly become „bare“. Then the Ukrainians seem to falter with their offensive, the whole thing seems to be a war of attrition at the moment. Furthermore, the population’s approval for further arms deliveries is falling, NATO and the EU are divided between the B9 and France/Germany, other western European countries in terms of war goals – even if nobody says it so openly.
The demonstration organized by Schwarzer/Wagenknecht/ ex-General Vad on February 25th at the Brandenburg Gate should be observed carefully, while the leadership of the Left Party around Kipping demonstrates for the Ukrainians in front of the Russian embassy, which amounts to the actual split of the Left Party. Schwarzer/Wagenknecht want a united front with AfD, identitarians, old leftists loyal to Moscow, former Corona deniers around the party BASIS and pacifists of „good will“ who call for „peace, peace beyond all, beyond all in the world“, albeit Varwick and Kässmann in the face of this explosive, toxic mix have retreated. The square at the Brandenburg Gate can conform around 100,000 demonstrators. It remains to be seen whether Wagenknecht will announce the founding of a new party or use this as a starting signal or for a mass movement after her previous hoped-for yellow vest uprising „Awakening“ didn’t materialize or whether Merkel adviser General Vad ill oust her and place himself at the head of a movement as the new Peace General Bastian, whom even former inveterate and former opponents of Merkel then cite as a court of appeal and as the new leader. Although Vad may still be in line with Wagenknecht in the goal of peace negotiations and the cessation of arms deliveries, but at the latest when it comes to the rearmament of the Bundeswehr, his constitutional ideas ala Carl Schmitt, his criticism of structural pacifism and his economic policy ideas, could then rather find his home in the AfD, and he has also read his Edward Luttwark „The Coup“ and could potentially promote the „rebellion of the generals“ or of parts of the Bundeswehr that the AfD dreams of. However, many right wingers fear the founding of a Wagenknecht party could cost them and the AfD supporters and votes and hopefully Wagenknecht will not land like her role model, icon and idol Rosa Luxenburg who opposed war loans in the Landwehr Channel.
The approval of the Manifesto for Peace by Schwarzer/Wagenknecht, as well as surveys show that at least half of the German population advocates an end to the supply of weapons, even fighter jets and immediate peace negotiations, be it to supposedly finally have a work-life-balance peace for the own soul against these Ukrainian „troublemakers“, even if it was a graveyard peace or out of concern for a further escalation to nuclear war and the lasting destruction of Ukraine and Ukrainians. The main thing is „peace“, even dictated peace and the life of the Donbass Ukrainians in concentration camps, torture and oppression, as in the case of the Korean solution, is tacitly tolerated. In the USA, the election campaign is now beginning and support for arms deliveries has fallen from 69% to 48% now. Trump and the MAGA Republicans accuse Biden of caring not about the US but about distant countries instead helping Americans in their own country at the chemical train accident in Ohio going to Ukraine. Trump also promises a quick peace by means of a deal with Putin in order to be able to turn more to China and Iran again. The remark by the ex-Ukrainian ambassador Melnyk that the fate of Ukraine will be decided by German arms deliveries and in Berlin is wrong, since it depends above all on the USA. Perspectively, Putin only has to count on Trump’s re-election in a year and hold the front line or even expand it. According to the head of the BND, Kahl, Putin could mobilize a further 1 million soldiers, which means that he could prevent, if not reverse, further gains in territory by the Ukrainians, in order to then come to a dictated peace. China is more of a wait-and-see attitude, and it doesn’t necessarily have anything against the USA being tied to Europe for a longer period of time, continues to support Russia, also in the goal of a common multipolar world, but how the goals of Ukrainian territorial integrity and Russian security interests in its peace initiative can be brought to a compromise remains more than uncertain, insofar as it is intended at all, maybe it is just a trick to pass the buck to the USA if it fails and to portray China as a world peacemaker sabotaged by the USA, which has now also announced its Global Security Initiative soon and to present the blueprint for it soon in Asian Davos, the Boao Conference in Hainan. In addition, it is also trying to win over the Global South, especially since many of these states as well as BRICS- and SCO- India are refraining from condemning Russia, even if the West still emphasizes that the Ukraine war is not a European war, but a global one. China is also recovering economically from the No-Covid policy and is continuing to arm itself, now even starting navy maneuvers with Russia and South Africa. The sanctions will have a medium-term effect at best, giving Putin another window of opportunity. In addition, NATO’s northern enlargement is by no means certain. Erdogan and Orban have not yet agreed, at best Erdogan has offered the prospect of Finland’s membership, perhaps also because of the earthquake. In addition, it is not clear whether the Sino-American conflict will continue to escalate, whether China will open a second front in Asia, whether the USA’s two-theater war capacities will then be subjected to a real stress test, and whether Iran is now on the way to becoming a nuclear power should the mullahs‘ regime not still be overthrown or a US-Israeli military strike prevents this, the Islamists in Pakistan go on the offensive, and maybe in a few years you could have the problem of an Islamist-controlled Pakistan with nuclear weapons.