Ukraine war: Last try and exit Crimean offensive or negotiations?
There was a lot of furor about the Wagenknecht/ Schwarzer/ Vad demonstration on February 25 at the Brandenburg Gate, the Manifesto for Peace and their demand for the cessation of arms deliveries and immediate peace negotiations. Interesting reports from the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post state that NATO considers a counter-offensive and a victory for Ukraine to be illusory (even if Ben Hodges and Masala are pushing for an allegedly war-changing Ukrainian offensive against Crimea), although Nato WIL DEEPEN ITSmilitary cooperation with Ukraine, also by supplying so-called „standard weapons“, but at the same time pressuring Selensky to negotiations. Scholz, Macron and Sinuk as well. Isn’t this the kind of European peace initiative demanded by Vad and Waldrich? Biden also does not want to deliver fighter jets at the moment.
„NATO is pushing for negotiations: Scholz and Macron are talking to Selenskyj about the end of the war Created: 02/25/2023, 18:47
NATO wants to strengthen military cooperation with Ukraine. In return, Kiev should consider negotiations with Russia. Kiev – So far, the prospect of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has been extremely bad. But that could change in the coming months. Because Germany, Great Britain and France apparently want to sensitize Kiev to talks with Moscow about the end of the Ukraine war. In return, Ukraine can hope for continued military support from NATO, as reported by merkur.de. Ukraine war: NATO countries are probably striving for peace negotiations Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron are said to have already discussed a possible agreement for negotiations on a possible end to the Ukraine war at their meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj almost three weeks ago. This was reported by the US Wall Street Journal with reference to officials of the respective governments. Scholz and Macron are said to have made it clear to their counterparts that negotiations are needed to bring about an end to the war. The NATO countries have asked Kiev to consider the possibility of peace talks later in the year. The two heads of state are said to have recalled how Germany and France made peace after the Second World War. However, Ukraine should decide on the timing and circumstances of the peace negotiations. NATO plan to end the Ukraine war: military cooperation is to be strengthened In return for a possible end to the Ukraine war, Ukraine is to receive modern weapons technology and ammunition from the NATO states in order to defend itself against renewed aggression from Russia. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak presented a corresponding draft last week. This will be discussed at the NATO annual meeting in July. The draft provides for closer military cooperation between NATO and Ukraine. Kiev would be given expanded access to standard NATO weapons and integrated into any supply chains. The draft does not provide for the stationing of NATO soldiers in Ukraine. Even the alliance case under Article 5 of NATO would not apply to Kiev.
President Zelenskyj has repeatedly spoken out against talks with Russia in recent weeks. In addition, Ukraine is not prepared to cede parts of its territory to Russia. Russian troops and pro-Russian separatists have occupied the Crimean peninsula and parts of the Donbas for years. Since last year’s Russian invasion, Russia’s sphere of influence in eastern Ukraine has continued to expand. https://www.fr.de/politik/nato-ukraine-russia-verhandlungen-krieg-scholz-macron-selenskyj-bedingungen-sunak-waffen-krim-mkr-92109807.html
At the same time, the reactions to China’s peace plan are also interesting. Selensky praises it, especially the reference to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, Pistorius finds it positive, Biden rejects it as a ruse and image PR gimmick by the Chinese, Scholz talks about the „light and shadow“ of the Chinese during his visit to India Chinese peace plan, while the US warns of alleged Chinese arms deliveries to Russia.
General Domröse criticizes Schwarzer, Wagenknecht and Vad for the equidistance between Russians and Ukrainians, between perpetrators and victims. With ex-General Vad it is not so clear: does he want gopolitic without values ala Carl Schmitt or the so-called offensive realism ala Mearsheimer, including the acceptance of the allegedly logical behavior of great powers and spheres of interest versus a value-based universal UN international law Pax Americana world order, although Vad on theother side again quotes quite humanistic values when reasoning his appeal for negotations. Actually, the approach that you shouldn’t be making any more arms deliveries is wrong, vice versa, Vad is probably right when he considers the reconquest of the Donbass and Crimea ala Hodges to be unrealistic and also calls for political war goals to be formulated first and then the arms deliveries aligned with it—but isn’t this already happening or are the war aims of the USA//B9 and Northern Europe different from those of Scholz-Germany/Macron-France and other parts of Western Europe? It seems that NATO, Biden, Macron, Scholz, Milley and Sinuk no longer believe in a complete restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the reconquest of the entire territory, if the reports of the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal are to be believed. Or even they advocate arms deliveries to the extent that the Ukrainians get the previously reclaimed territory and Odessa, otherwise it seems likely that a Korean solution will result as Milley. And the alternatives are mutually bloody. Be it the hope of a so-called victory peace for the Ukrainians over xy years or, conversely, the peace of Milley/Vad and Wagenknecht. The Korean solution means accepting that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians in the Donbass will “live” or die under a Bucha dictatorship as North Korea, but the continuation of the war also means the Verdun blood mill cited by Vad. You have to make a decision and apparently you seem to to rely on the delivery of further „standard weapons“ instead of escalation weapons and pressure on Selensky to negotiate. Is that a violation of international law? Definitely. But that was the Kosovo war, the secession of Kosovo and the Iraq war too, as well as NATO’s war in Libya. One shouldn’t make a stereotypical distinction between international law and not international law, values and realpolitik; it’s often a contradictory mix of the two. But you have to ensure that such a Korean solution and such wars of aggression remain the exception. General Vad commented on the latest news in the Washington Post and WSJ: “Yes, the situation is really contradictory. The military experts must now recalibrate themselves according to these transatlantic signals…“
And you have to do that again in the next moment: A moment ago the Washington Post and WSJ that NATO, Scholz, Sinuk and Makron were urging Selensky to negotiate, the news just came on ntv: Biden will never accept the annexation of Crimea and the Russians will not react with nuclear weapons either. So the Crimean offensive after all – as a last try or as the ultimate goal? In any case, the forces around Ben Hodges, who believe that Crimea will be liberated by August 2023, seem to be picking up again. On February 28th there will be a zoom event with Big Ben or Bang in Croatia. Possibly one hopes for such a successful scenario as in the US-supported MPRI Krajna offensive in Croatia in the 1990s against the Serbs, now in Crimea against the Russians. And if that doesn’t work either, then perhaps negotiations will take place after all.
Friendly Reminder –
GENERAL BEN HODGES will join us by Zoom on TUESDAY COMING, February 28, at 2.00pm EST, General Hodges will talk about „RUSSIA’S WAR ON UKRAINE: SHOULD & WILL UKRAINE TAKE BACK CRIMEA?“
Zoom link for the event:https://zoom.us/j/98072415115
(no rsvp or pre-registration necessary; just click the link and join us on Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2pm).
Please distribute this public event as widely as you deem fit. Thank you!
Well-known analyst and former Commanding General, US Army Europe, Ben Hodges will analyze the military and strategic capabilities of both Ukraine and Russia.
How long is the war going to last? When and how will the war End? Will NATO countries continue supporting Ukraine? What are the remaining military capacities of both Russia and Ukraine?
Please see the link to our website below and the flyer below and attached.
|Feb.28, 2023 KRASNO GLOBAL AFFAIRS & BUSINESS COUNCIL @ UNC-CHAPEL HILL www.krasnoevents.com|
The video of my previous conversation with General Hodges in September 2022 has received an impressive 352,000 views on our You Tube channel (and almost 50 per cent of all viewers watched General Hodges analysis in its entirety). Here is the link:
|Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Evolving Military & Strategic Situation (with Lt. Gen Ben Hodges) The Richard M. Krasno Distinguished Professorship at UNC-Chapel Hill presents Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Evolving Military & Strategic Situation. Dr. Klaus… www.youtube.com|
I greatly look forward to seeing you again by Zoom on Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2.00pm.
With my best wishes,
Richard M Krasno Distinguished Professor, UNC-Chapel Hill;
Visiting Scholar, Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University.
Latest book: Uncertain Allies: Nixon, Kissinger, and the Threat of a United Europe (Yale UP, 2022).