There is an interesting but somewhat tenuous article in the Global Times on the peak power theory, which is being described as a new version of the old China collapse theory. China Engagement -Kissinger’s fellow Harvard professor Graham Allison is used as a key witness against the Economist editorial, then the GT points out that US dominance is claimed primarily over the G7, while ignoring the shrinking economic shares of the US and G7 in world trade . Then also that China is now entering a new economic stage away from the low-wage workbench to the Hitech nation and the visit of two CEOs is cited as a counter-example of decoupling. Oddly enough, Elon Musk is still missing. But it remains purely economic, especially since the latest quarterly figures from the Chinese statistical office for an alleged recovery of the economy after the corona crisis are only a very short-term view and no argument for longer-term trends. Political factors, demographics and climate change, which are also strongly mentioned as main arguments in the peak power theories, are simply ignored, although China in terms of political strategy, unity, especially the Global Security Initiative, Global Development Initiative and Global Xivilzation Initiative under the Xi Jinping thought maybe had a lot to offer, but strangely it are not considered at all and mentioned:
“GT Voice: ‘China’s rise is about to peak’ theory a new variation of ‘China collapse cliché’
By Global Times Published: May 14, 2023 10:36 PM
Lujiazui, a financial zone in Shanghai Photo: VCG
The Economist said in a recent article that China’s rapid rise is slowing down. In response to the recent hype across some Western media outlets over whether China’s rise is about to peak, what we would like to say is that the country’s high-quality economic development is sustainable. Any doubts about this will make skeptics miss out on the opportunities presented in China’s huge market.
In recent decades, Western predictions of a so-called China collapse have been accompanied by China’s rise, which not only reflects the West’s lack of understanding on the Chinese economy, but also mirrors the West’s emotional resistance against China’s emergence as an economic power. The theory of „China’s rise is about to peak“ is nothing but a new variation of the tired „China collapse“ cliché, which appears from time to time, but has never turned into reality.
It is interesting to see the Economist publish an article in April praising the US economy before it joined the discussion of whether China’s rise is about to peak. The Economist said the US remains the world’s richest, most productive and most innovative big economy. „Anxiety obscures a stunning success story – one of enduring but underappreciated outperformance,“ the article said.
„That idea is making waves in Washington. Particularly among those who feel the deep divisions in this country, are disheartened by the prospects of a rerun of the 2020 election between an octogenarian and an indicted former president, and see the looming specter of stalemate over raising the debt ceiling that could force the nation to default, the notion that the U.S. economy is world-beating is a welcome reassurance,“ Harvard University‘ Graham Allison said in a recent commentary responding to the Economist article.
According to Allison, the Economist reaches its conclusion by excluding China and instead, it compares the US with competitors in the G7 to declare the US economy the winner. However, the fact is that G7 economies‘ combined share of global GDP has been shrinking in recent decades. US‘ economic leadership among G7 economies is not something worth bragging about, as the share of developing countries in the world economy has significantly increased.
With this as a backdrop, it comes as no surprise that there is a discussion about whether China’s rise is about to peak. The theory represents not fact but some Western elites‘ expectations for China. They look for spiritual comfort from the alleged bleak prospects for China’s economy, but spiritual opium cannot help them solve practical problems. It reflects nothing but American elites‘ lack of confidence in dealing with current economic challenges.
Although some elites in Western countries have recently come up with rhetoric that „China’s economy has peaked,“ facts showed the Chinese economy has started off the year with 4.5 percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter, laying a solid foundation for the full-year economic rebound in 2023 and injecting more confidence into the global economy amid a volatile international environment. China is an exception to the slowdown that the global economy is expected to experience this year, World Bank Group President David Malpass said in early April.
The performance of the Chinese economy in the first quarter has boosted the confidence of foreign investors in the Chinese market. China’s inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) grew 4.9 percent year-on-year to $59.2 billion in the first quarter. Investment from France and Germany surged by 635.5 percent and 60.8 percent year on year, while investment from Japan, Canada, Switzerland, South Korea, and the UK also recorded significant growth, according to data from China’s Ministry of Commerce.
In stark contrast to the skeptics‘ pessimistic tones, business leaders in Western countries have expressed their optimistic expectations on the prospects of the Chinese economy. Despite the US-led „decoupling“ push, a slew of foreign CEOs – included Intel’s Patrick Gelsinger and Apple’s Tim Cook – made a succession of visits to the Chinese market from March to April. During the visits, many of those executives expressed their companies‘ long-term commitment to the promising market.
The strong attractiveness of the Chinese market to foreign companies is not a surprise. As China’s economy continues to upgrade and optimize, its huge consumer market is encouraged to play a more important role in economic growth. China’s consumption upgrade and quality development will bring more space for foreign companies to boost sustainable growth. More importantly, China has unswervingly continued to expand opening-up, constantly improving the investment environment and providing operating facilitations for foreign companies. “
Also interesting is another programmatic article in the Global Times, which rather emphasizes that China should stick to the real economy, to manufacturing and industry and become a kind of modernized – AI – digitized workbench. Another apparent difference between the neoliberal Anglo-Saxons and China: the emphasis on the real economy, i.e. industry and manufacturing, as a counter-model to the alleged deindustrialization of the West with its service society. As far as I can remember, Germany is following a similar course, although it’s unclear whether China counts all the new high-tech companies in the US and at home as part of the industrial sector or not. So what actually is software development? According to the will of the KP, however, Hi Tech and AI should primarily serve to modernize the real economy and the global workbench. Unfortunately no concrete statistics or numbers are mentioned.
„Key CPC meeting stresses real economy as focus of modern industrial system
By Chu Daye Published: May 05, 2023 10:12 PM Updated: May 06, 2023 06:39 PM
Lujiazui area in Shanghai Photo:Xinhua
A key meeting held Friday by the top decision-making body for China’s financial affairs has called for speeding up the construction of the country’s modern industrial system backed by the real economy and advancing Chinese modernization with support from high-quality development of the population.
Held in an important year – the first year for fully implementing the guiding principles of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the 45th anniversary of China’s reform and opening-up and the 10th anniversary of the third plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee – Friday’s meeting is of far-reaching importance as it reaffirmed the real economy as the focal point of China’s efforts in developing its economy, experts said.
Presiding over the first meeting of the commission for financial and economic affairs under the 20th CPC Central Committee, Chinese President Xi Jinping, who also heads the commission, noted that the modern industrial system is the physical and technological foundation of a modern country and offers steadfast material support for realizing the Second Centenary Goal.
Xi, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, urged strategic planning and a holistic approach in realizing Chinese modernization.
Speeding up the buildup of the modern industrial system backed by the real economy will determine whether China will be able to gain a strategic lead in global competition, and the nation needs to take into consideration the new science and technology revolutionsuch as artificial intelligence and take a harmonious development approach with nature, the meeting said.
The meeting called for building smart technology-powered development, innovation, green development and integrated development and establishing a system that is integral, advanced and secure.
Friday’s meeting was preceded by two other key meetings. An April 21 meeting by the top decision-making body for China’s reform called for putting innovation in focus as a crucial step to achieving sci-tech self-reliance and strength and an April 28 meeting affirmed China’s better-than-expected economic recovery while calling for expanding demand and a targeted „proactive fiscal policy“ and „prudent monetary policy.“
Experts said that bolstering post-pandemic recovery and mapping out future development is the top agenda for all countries, and China’s path, due to its unique position, is deeply rooted in developing the real economy.
„In the face of the new environment, the only way to create new momentum for development is through developing high-quality real economy,“ Cong Yi, a professor at the Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Friday.
„Fiscal and monetary policies, the domain of the commission, will be directed to aid the still recovering economy, and financial innovation will need to stick to serving the real economy,“ Cong said.
„The message sent out at the meeting is clear: China won’t blindly follow a Western approach to modernization by deindustrialization,“ Dong Dengxin, director of the Finance and Securities Institute of the Wuhan University of Science and Technology, told the Global Times on Friday.
As a country with a population of 1.4 billion, lacking a strong real economy will make the pursuit of rejuvenation a futile one, Dong said, noting that China’s successful transformation and upgrade of its vast manufacturing sector served the country well during the three years of the pandemic and helped rebuke the US‘ decoupling efforts and crackdown.
A State Council executive meeting held on Friday called for more emphasis to be attached to forging advanced manufacturing clusters.
The meeting passed implementation guidelines to develop charging facilities across the country and promote new-energy vehicles sales in rural areas and plans on promoting rural area revitalization.
Large container ship Cosco Shipping Lotus docks at a terminal of Lianyungang port in Lianyungang, East China’s Jiangsu Province on April 5, 2023. In the first quarter of this year, cargo throughput at Lianyungang port totaled 1.459 million standard containers, a year-on-year growth of 15.5 percent, official statistics showed. Photo: VCG
Robust economic growth
The Chinese economy is firing on all cylinders in the second quarter, with May Day holidays tourism brimming with vitality and rebounding above pre-pandemic levels, and a series of major trade shows and expos continuing to inject new impetus into the world’s second largest economy with the dividends of opening-up.
Chinese experts noted that despite a slight slowdown in April’s manufacturing purchasing managers‘ index (PMI) data as well as some weak links in the economy, the Chinese economy is poised to stay on the fast track in the second quarter, with the Chinese government placing further emphasis on improving the business environment and opening-up.
Banking on the explosive consumption growth seen during the just concluded five-day May Day holidays, the Chinese economy is seeing its internal drivers being constantly reinforced, experts noted. This is in stark contrast with the US, which is facing debt ceiling woes while battling high inflation.
The strong performance seen in the consumption sector came with marked results from a series of international events and trade shows held since March. At the same time, the prospect of a long list of expos and shows starting from the second quarter is set to bring uninterrupted momentum to the country’s opening-up drive for the second half of the year.
The 133rd China Import and Export Fair, commonly known as the Canton Fair and one of the world’s largest trade shows, concluded on Friday with on-site and online deals worth $25.11 billion inked. The trade show became a major showroom for products with new technologies, materials and processing techniques, according to Xinhua.
Just as the Canton Fair ended, China announced that the 3rd China-CEEC Expo & International Consumer Goods Fair will be held in Ningbo, East China’s Zhejiang Province on May 16-20 with over 3,000 exhibitors participating in the event, up 30 percent from the previous exhibition held in 2021.
The Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) expo will be followed by other heavyweight expos such as the China International Fair for Trade in Services to be held in Beijing in September and the China International Import Expo in Shanghai this November.
After China’s optimization of its epidemic response, top executives from a host of European companies have visited the country and promoted their projects here by being „physically in China,“ demonstrating their resolute determination to invest in and develop their business in the country, Vice Commerce Minister Li Fei said at a press conference on Friday.
China’s continued opening-up is bringing more opportunities to foreign companies, experts noted, despite hype by some Western media suggesting China is closing up with reports on topics such as „China planning to phase out global accounting firms from its market.“
Q2 growth to be impressive
Chinese economists said although China faces issues such as uneven growth, the economy is poised to post strong growth in the second quarter with a strongly recovered consumption sector, which will contribute to much of the country’s economic growth.
Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times on Friday that the hot tourism market and busy succession of trade shows, which are „carnivals on the consumer-end and producer-end, will propel the economy toward a brisk growth,“ and predicted that China could see a GDP growth for the quarter at 5.5 percent or above.
Wan Zhe, an economist and professor at the Belt and Road School of Beijing Normal University, told the Global Times on Friday that in the next phase, further improving the business environment will play a vital role in the government’s push to make further progress.
„There is a need to tap institutional power to safeguard the willingness displayed by individual market entities on consumption and willingness to pursue economic development, as shown in the prosperous tourism, retail and convention and exhibition sectors,“ Wan said.
In the IMF’s latest forecast for the Asia-Pacific, the organization, having revised up the region’s growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 4.6 percent, predicted that China and India will contribute around half of global growth in 2023.
China’s GDP expanded by 4.5 percent in the first quarter, paving the way for a strong full-year recovery.“
China expert Professor van Ess also commented:
“That is actually an important difference – and at the moment Germany is even more similar to China than the UK or the USA. Some economists would have us believe that a modern economy no longer needs the harsh world of production and that the death of the automotive industry is actually a good thing for us, something that others have already gone through (not entirely true: the UK is still an important automotive country, but the manufacturers are no longer in British hands). That’s why the Americans and the British are so annoyed about China: They are particularly strong in the financial sector, and with that they can’t get into the isolated Chinese market – and therefore have an even larger trade balance deficit with China than we do.“
Furthermore, the Global times reports about model cities for the Xiconomics and the new Xivilization . As with Deng, Canton as a driver of economic modernization for China, Liangshan as a model city for rural development and poverty eradication, which should also serve as a role model for agricultural societies in the Global South and worldwide. Canton is once again being hailed as the pacesetter of Chinese modernization. Here’s the example of the fruit market. On the one hand giant trucks, a digitized market with information and prices in real time. They also want to expand the multi-module sea rail system, which so far only accounts for 4% of cargo turnover, while that accounts for 40% in developed countries. Likewise, the BRI would now internationalize the fruit market as new exotic types of fruit entered the Chinese market and vice versa. Is the fruit market that representative? Significantly, this year’s Canton Fair is ignored, which the CIDW’s Chinapolitan Newsletter just reported was quite disappointing for China, especially since fewer and fewer Western exhibitors are coming, but more from the Global South and the BRICS.
News analysis: Chinese modernization will bring great benefits to the world
By Chu Daye in Guangzhou Published: Apr 26, 2023 09:02 PM
A recent trip brought me to the southernmost point of the city of Guangzhou, capital of South China’s Guangdong Province. Situated at the mouth of the Pearl River, surrounded by the wonders of modern China (the area is flanked on both sides by the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Link and the Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport), are gigantic warehouses built on what a few years ago was just marshland. Here, I had some thoughts about Chinese modernization and how it may look in the decades to come.
The southern province, long considered a pace-setter of the country’s reform and opening-up that began in the late 1970s, has just been visited by China’s top leader, who asked the province to be a trailblazer on the Chinese path to modernization.
Xiconomics in Practice: What does pursuit of Chinese modernization look like in remote, less-developed areas like Liangshan?
Chinese modernization means better life for people, a new model for world
By Wang Cong
Published: Feb 12, 2023 11:44 PM Updated: Feb 13, 2023 12:24 AM
Since 2012, China has witnessed an extraordinary economic transition, with historic achievements in all aspects of the economy from its size to quality. Such an unparalleled feat does not just happen, especially during a tumultuous period in the global geo-economic landscape and a tough phase in China’s economic transformation and upgrading process. It was Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era that guided the country in overcoming various risks and challenges, and in keeping the China economic miracle alive.
As China embarked on the quest to become a great modern socialist country amid global changes unseen in a century, Xi’s economic thought has been and will continue to be the guiding principle for development in China for years to come, and have great significance for the world. What is Xi’s economic thought? What does it mean for China and the world? To answer these questions, the Global Times has launched this special coverage on Xi’s major economic speeches and policies and how they are put into practice to boost development in China and around the world.
When President Xi Jinping visited Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Southwest China’s Sichuan Province in February 2018, the region, home to the largest ethnic Yi community, was still engaged in a tough battle against extreme poverty. Due to its harsh natural conditions and rough terrain, Liangshan, about 2,000 kilometers from Beijing, has long struggled with grinding poverty.
Liangshan was declared to be one of the three most severely impoverished prefectures in the national battle against poverty.
About three years later, in February, 2021, Xi announced that China had scored a „complete victory“ in its fight against poverty, noting that absolute poverty had been eradicated in the world’s most populous country – a miracle that will „go down in history.“
After years of national and local efforts, Liangshan also witnessed the eradication of absolute poverty, with more than 1.05 million people lifted out of absolute poverty and 11 counties and 2,072 villages removed from the list of impoverished areas.
In the report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in October 2022, Xi, also general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, underscored the „central task“ of the Party, calling for efforts to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts „through a Chinese path to modernization.“ And Liangshan, along with the entire country, has embarked on a path to achieving Chinese modernization with sweeping efforts in a wide range of areas from infrastructure building and economic development to environmental protection.
Liangshan’s transformation over the years – from being one of the country’s most impoverished areas to a key region in the country’s modernization efforts – is a microcosm of China’s efforts and achievements in exploring the Chinese path to modernization, which has become a historical task for the CPC. Likewise, in the course of the national battle against absolute poverty, such efforts and achievements in remote, less-developed areas like Liangshan are crucial in China’s pursuit of achieving modernization with uniquely Chinese characteristics.
Of course, all the Xiconomics including the New Silk Road BRI and Global Development Initiative in and for a protracted was against the USA and the West with a dual circular economy and supplemented by the Global Security Initiative and Global Civilization Initiative under the Xi Jingping thoughts.