Ukraine offensive after the failed Wagner putsch and before the NATO meeting in Vilnius

Ukraine offensive after the failed Wagner putsch and before the NATO meeting in Vilnius

Yesterday, the Thursday talk show Maybritt Illner ran again on ZDF. Essentially, it was about what the reality and the resulting realpolitik was, and there were 2 positions: Professor Varwick, like Vad, assumes a stalemate, a battle of attrition, which is why negotiations should be started with territorial concessions and a reconsideration of the position of NATO -Membership of Ukraine. Ben Hodges and the rest emphasized that the Ukrainian offensive will not develop its momentum within 2 weeks, but only in 3 months, when the Russian defenses are removed and polished and the actual offensive can begin. It was then  admitted, however, that more weapons were needed. However, this was not specified more precisely, it was only briefly mentioned by Ben Hodges as short-range missiles. Apparently necessary, because today it is reported that half of the Leo tanks were destroyed when clearing the mines. While there was just talk of short-range missiles, now there is already talk oflong-range missiles and then explicitly Crimea as the target, which the Ukrainians could then defeat without gaining ground. Ben Hodges said before that Crimea could be liberated by the end of August 2013. Apparently this is now also being discussed on the US side before the NATO meeting in Vilnius:

“US to send ’secret weapon‘ ATACMS missiles to fight Russia in Ukraine – WSJ

The long-range missiles would give Ukraine a strategic advantage over Russia and allow them to strike targets behind the front lines.


Published: JUNE 30, 2023 02:53 Updated: JUNE 30, 2023 08:56

The US is close to approving transfers of long-range missiles which would allow Ukraine to strike targets far from the front line and possibly even in Russia, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) has a range of about 190 miles (305 km), which would be sufficient for Ukraine to strike Russian targets far from the front lines.

President Biden has yet to sign off on the transfer, partly due to concerns among US officials that Ukraine could use it to strike Russian territory, escalating the conflict into a wider war with the West. 

There are signs that the White House, which has so far been reluctant to transfer this type of missile system, may have begun coming around to the idea. 

The internal turmoil in Russia last Saturday has highlighted to the White House the need to boost Ukrainian weapons systems. Russian mercenary group Wagner, led by owner Yevgeny Prigozhin, attempted to reach the capital of Moscow last week, ostensibly due to disputes with the Defense Minister.

Possible missile system transfer

Senior Ukrainian defense officials had received positive signs in recent weeks that the US understands the need for the ATACMS system, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Long-range missile systems are needed if Ukraine wishes to re-take Crimea, they would allow Ukraine the ability to strike Crimea without needing to gain new ground. 

The Pentagon however denied that the US was close to transferring the missile systems, saying they were „not aware of any imminent decisions as it relates to ATACMs,“ as reported by Reuters.

Also today reports that after the toppling of General Armageddon Soruvikin Gerasimov is said to have disappeared (but he was already once) and that Sorukin along with other 30 VIP generals are said to have been members of Wagner. The Russian organization Dossier Center allegedly has Wagner lists that should prove this. However, one does not find out who this ominous organization is. Is the West  hoping for a wave of purges like Stalin’s, which will decapitate the Russian military leadership go? Is Putin as stupid as Stalin was then? In any case, he seems to be sticking with Shoigu, who doesn’t seem to be effective, but seems (still) loyal. Furthermore, today in the SPIEGEL a report, according to which Wagner cheerfully continues to recruit in Russia.

Ben Hodges made an interesting point that along with Shoigu, Lukachenkov is the unnoticed winner of the failed revolt. For one thing, it gives him more leeway. and a bargaining chip against Putin, on the other hand he can now also use Wagner against the Belarusian opposition. The statements by Frank Sauer and Big Ben on Russian nuclear weapons were also interesting, although they believe that they can still be controlled even under adverse circumstances, among other things because of the entire guarding and security levels that have been established since the decades  after the fall of communism within the framework of the US-Russian programs to protect nuclear weapons. Wagner or other groups are not in a position to acquire nuclear weapons. An expert at Illner also warned of Putin’s many escalation possibilities, which no one had on the radar in the public discussion . But she didn´t say anything more concrete, only that Putin could initiate a meltdown in the nuclear power plant, especially since Selensky paints this on the wall as a bogeyman along with the Ukrainian general staff, According to NTV, an ABC protection team is said to have been sent to Ukraine by the West today. But what’s in it for him? That only makes sense in terms of scorched earth, and not even that because of the radioactivity? Does he want a radioactively contaminated Donbass or do the Russians see the question of radioactivity and its consequences more relaxed than esoteric-homeopathic Westerners and especially Germans, where the A-or N- word can trigger panic and hysteria. Finally, Greta visiting Selensky, who can now bring her environmental protection topic to the Ukraine by using the word ecocide. Fridays for Zaporizhschja. Pence is next.

But let’s wait for the NATO meeting in Vilnius, especially since Selensky is now demanding the immediate opening of EU membership negotiations at the EU summit. We also have posted an article “The Disgrace of the President” by Dr. Rahr, in which he, like us, thinks the „staging“ theory is nonsense, as rahr sees Putin weakened and tries to classify it historically on the basis of previous Russian uprisings and power struggles. What is really interesting, however, is that he claims at the end that on June 24th communication channels between the USA and Russia were re-established. You don’t read anything about it in the media, but we can’t check the truthfulness. Rahr believes that after the Chinese, Brazilian, African and Vatican initiatives and as part of the Copenhagen initiative, the USA now want to explore if there could be some negotation will. It will also be interesting to see whether Erdogan, who was the first to congratulate and call Putin, will get involved again. Especially since the burning of the Koran by an Iraqi in Sweden made Sweden´s NATO membership even more difficult, especially since that is also a nice bargaining chip in negotiations or even mediation for Erdogan.

Ben Hodges once again pointed out that Russia is not a nation state, but an empire and that the Russians must therefore must abandon their imperial thought in order to have them as peaceful cooperation partners in the long term. Carnegie also points out that this imperial and missionary thinking is present not only in Prigozhin but in the entire Russian elite and Putin’s inner circle, including the siloviki.

“No Return for Yevgeny Prigozhin—or Russia

The regime is driven by ideas of supremacy and messianism, nationalism and imperialism. In this respect, there is no difference between Putin and his inner circle and Prigozhin.

In addition, a number of minority representatives complained that the democratic opposition from Navalny to Khodorkovsky was also stuck in these imperial fantasies or the Russian Federation. And whether the Russian partisans of the Russian neo-Nazi “White Alex”, who invaded Belgorod to “liberate Russia” want to build a peaceful nation state without imperial missionary ideas, is also questionable, since their historical role model the Greater German Reich also felt itself to be an empire.

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