Biden´s proposal for a summit with Xi: Ukraine solution and the“Spirit of Bali“?

Biden´s proposal for a summit with Xi: Ukraine solution and the“Spirit of Bali“?

Despite all other systemic and great power competition and struggle for the status of a new world power or for new multipolar world order, tactical armistices in view of the mutual downward spiral can´t be ruled out, also in the Ukraine war. It is, as Indian ex-General Asthana says, possibly more of a longer marathon fought out on many levels and continents than a rapid, all-changing war over Taiwan or in the Indo-Pacific that will bring about a quick decision, as some peak power theorists see it just as Habeck sees a Taiwan war coming “by 2027 at the latest”, especially since China is currently showing more and more obvious signs of a crisis. Interesting is a contribution by a China expert and expert in Focus, who may be issuing the currently hoped-for line, including that of the Biden administration and many Western politicians:

Robert Halver’s column

 Why America Shouldn’t Stand by and Watch the China Dawn

Today, 08/19/2023 | 09:12

The „law of nature“ that China will knock the US off its pedestal has lost its force. Economically and geopolitically, things are not going well. China is struggling with deflation, the real estate sector is in Lehman mode. America seems to be enjoying its adversary’s crisis. The US has no interest in China becoming as dark as possible. Yes, China’s economic rise was magical. Tens of millions of Chinese were lifted out of poverty and a respectable middle class was established. And with a policy of dependency and the bunkering of raw materials, China was also able to put itself in a good geopolitical position.

Today’s reality in China is less bright. After the long corona economic shutdown, the domestic economy is simply not getting going. Above all, it is dark on the important real estate market, which accounts for around a quarter of economic output. Because of bankruptcies, bad luck and breakdowns, mortgage bonds have often become junk securities and home builders are losing their money en masse. Due to the sluggish world economy, Chinese foreign trade cannot compensate. Instead of reflation, there is deflation. What sounds like soft music to western ears due to high inflation causes tinnitus on closer listening. Because when there is deflation, purchasing and investment decisions are postponed further and further because it is becoming cheaper and cheaper. The self-inflicted demographic problem caused by the earlier one-child policy is also causing the population to age, which no longer consumes as much as younger people.

Resist the beginnings: Exactly this scenario led to the long Japanese economic depression from the 90s. The USA has an advantage – because people there are used to crises The new China has not yet had any experience with structural emergencies. So far everything has been going smoothly. The US has a clear advantage here. They are used to crises, which they have mastered again and again as stand-up men. In any case, America has recognized the danger of the Chinese „Jedi Knights“. „The empire strikes back“: In order to secure its geopolitical pole position and prosperity, it wants to stand up to the Chinese in all areas, including climate protection and technology, including the mega-topic of artificial intelligence. In this context, the US sanctions in the high-tech sector are having an effect. Supply and investment bans obviously put China in the shade in terms of technology. And Beijing’s Silk Road initiative to create a China-friendly and, if possible, US-hostile bloc of states also has its pitfalls. The project devours gigantic Chinese funds. Beijing loyalty comes at a price. And yet nobody wants to become a vassal of China.

Alternatively, you can also see what Uncle Sam has to offer. In general, the raw material countries will not want to alienate the wealthy West. Money doesn’t stink.

How is China reacting to its shadow crisis? China must maintain social peace, especially since there are supply bottlenecks. If the CP’s promise of advancement is broken, the opium for the people also loses its effect. It is true that more and more young people in China have an academic degree. But the economic problems are turning them more and more into day labourers.

Beijing is using massive interest rate and fiscal policy pick-me-ups as countermeasures. In theory, however, it should above all discard its false ideology. In a world that cannot be planned, a planned economy leads to major bad investments. Liberal, pragmatic thinking is far superior to the supervised thinking of an all-regulating state knout: If an iceberg appears on the port side, you have to quickly change course to starboard. A hard command economy is always a suboptimal breeding ground for innovation and economic growth. It promotes cowardice and yes-sayers. Even good ideas are thrown out for fear that the authorities will not like them. That socialism is a dead end is also shown by the fact that international and even domestic professionals now prefer the American anti-class struggle environment to the Chinese socialist one.

 In practice, however, it is utopian that China will change from a state-based Saul to a market-based Paul. It’s like „Highlander“: There can only be one and that’s the control freaks of the CCP. Beijing is more likely to draw the patriotic-nationalist card to distract from internal problems: bad America wants to suppress good China. The Chinese press, free as a bird in a cage, will optimize this propaganda.

 If America is wise, it doesn’t want China to become a shadowy creature

It’s understandable that America and China are fighting for place at the sun. Basically, the West has given China too much leeway in recent years to feast on its bountiful feeding trough. This suggested to Beijing that it could simply march through the world and put its authoritarian stamp on the world. In this respect, the American backlash is understandable.

But the US would be well advised not to turn off the lights on China wherever possible. The consequences would be fatal for all of us. In extreme cases, foreign policy becomes even more aggressive. Specifically, this could be seen in Taiwan, to which China claims unconditional rights, even though the island never belonged to the People’s Republic. But you make the population know that China is only a world power if it behaves militarily like a world power.“ The West should also be aware that China is still of great importance for the global economy and also as a production location. Conversely, China also has an interest in conducting foreign trade with the wealthy West, which also fundamentally benefits the Western stock markets.

Overall, this speaks for a reasonable compromise of the brand „Live and let live“. It is to be hoped that this wisdom will continue to be practiced in America after the next presidential election and that no one with a big narcissistic butt will tear down diplomatic walls. Last but not least, particularly religious America should remember the Gospel of John, Chapter 8. There it says: „He who is without sin, cast the first stone.“ In view of the dramatic over-indebtedness, rating downgrades and a deeply divided society, it is best to hold your own nose. The stones should not leave American soil

 If the USA were wise, so the wake-up call, the Biden government should give in at the moment and not hope that China will go down, since that would also mean that the USA which has not yet been decoupled, will go down, along with a good part of the world. So in your own self-interest, China should not become a shadow creature. The question is whether Trump and other Republicans also see it that way, especially since a fatal Chinabashing race is also taking place in the USA, which some also see as warmongering, even such Xi-Hawks and Chinabashers as Dr. Alexander Görlach from the Carnegie Foundation, who usually sets the sharp, system-rival tone in Focus under the pseudonym “Chinaversteher”.

Also the following headlines:

 „China’s real estate drama about Evergrande alarmed financial markets worldwide“ – FOCUS online

„Evergrande: China’s real estate giant applies for bankruptcy protection in the USA“ – DER SPIEGEL

„US intelligence doesn’t believe in Ukraine’s success: That’s what the soldiers in the trenches think!“

It is quite likely that negotiations will begin at the end of this year, although there is still no armistice, especially since Selensky has big disputes with his own military officials and Ukrainian silowiki. Even without a Ukrainian Prigozhin march. Now the news about the  US secret service, which openly no longer believes in a victory while BILD is now conducting opinion polls in the Ukrainian trenches, which nevertheless  hopes for victory.

 Ex-General Vad commented:

 “Yes, the narrative editors have to fly the biggest media fight curve in view of their many misjudgments about the Ukraine war……but they will definitely get it done in small doses. Just a pity about the many deaths. Mark Milley clearly saw as early as 11/9/22 that a military solution is highly unlikely. He has said so publicly — certainly with Biden’s tacit approval. I saw and see it that way, even if it doesn’t fit into the political ideal. Quite a few ex-military men, who should know better, dreamed and still dream of the “milling machine” to the Sea of Azov and the conquest of the Crimea. I think from many years of experience with and in politics that the political framework for military support against the RUS “special operation” (Putin) or “minor incursion” (Biden) was and is fairly clearly defined between the US and the RUS. That is why your scenario of a huge NATO deployment was and is politically undesirable. In the end, probably, the USA and the West – after FIN and SWD – will give Ukraine’s NATO membership, and RUS will keep Donbass and Crimea. A good deal for both sides – apart from the collateral damage for others, especially Germany.“

It is also interesting that at the Camp David meeting with South Korea and Japan, which was immediately dubbed „historic“, Biden said that he wanted to meet Xi this year, whom he had previously described as a ticking time bomb. Does he want to defuse Xi? Will Xi turn him down? Fromer Putin and Gazprom adviser Rahr said that Biden´s initation to a meeting would only be accepted by Xi  if he responded to the Chinese peace initiative and fondled Xi’s belly a little bit with it. But maybe a divided Ukraine with an Israel/Korea solution as a Sino-American compromise comes up that Putin could then also agree to? How would that be welcomed during the US election campaign? Biden and Xi or Putin and Xi or even all three as peacemakers, especially as preventers of a global economic or financial crisis (Evergrand, Country Garden, etc.), yes also by means of grain deals then again as starvation saviors of the „Global South“ Or Biden as a traitor of Ukraine and the West who sold them out to Xi and Putin? Actually, Trump and Musk should then praise such a deal, since they also advocated such a deal, especially in 24 hours, but if the democratic competitior does that, it must be bad and evil again, but Trump could make the best claim that the war would never have happened without Biden if Trump would have be president, especially since Biden´s son Hunter was involved in corrupt deals in Ukraine, and maybe Trump would also critisize the time frame. In addition, with a cuddle course and new “appeasement” by Biden towards China, which Trump so vehemently rejects. In the end Biden and Xi for the Nobel Peace Prize? Although subsequent developments, such as the Nobel Peace Prize for Peres and Arafat, tended to have the opposite effect. It will be interesting to see how Xi reacts to Biden’s proposal.

Former NATO General Domroese put it this way:

“Obviously every president wants to be seen as a peacemaker. All the more so as Biden is campaigning. As I said, I don’t see the Korean solution. Binds too many troops. I have never seen a military victory for Ukraine. Unfortunately. Partial success yes. To do this, they need more high-tech systems. XI needs economic relief. I see certain possibilities there. I cannot imagine a peace agreement at the expense of Ukraine BEFORE the elections. So: I think a certain relaxation in the Indo-Pacific against an economic perspective is conceivable.”

At the moment, the hope seems increasingly be stronger, as the danger  of mutual exhaustion arises  and also with the will to prevent a possible world financial and world economic crisis (Yellen in Beijing), there are some hopes  that Xi will not start such a disastrous and adventurous action against Taiwan or in the Indo -Pacific at the moment like Putin did against Ukraine and one could therefore bring in a certain moderation in the sense of common interests because the world economy has not yet been decoupled or not yet been derisked, perhaps also with China’s Ukrainian peace initiative, which within the framework of the Chinese strategy triad Global Security Initiative, Global Development Initiative including BRI and Global Xivilization Initiative under the Xi Jinping Thoughts next to the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal under Chinese mediation could bring XI and China an image boost as world peace dove and could not drag down states burdened by the Ukraine conflict and the Sino-American conflict, including the USA and China themself. But now it remains to be seen whether Xi will accept Biden’s summit offer and whether the „Spirit of Bali“ quoted earlier by the CCP on the sidelines of the XI Biden meeting at the G20 summit in Indonesia will be back in the Global Times and the People’s Daily and be praised again. This has not happened yet, if ever.

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