Zweistaatenlösung und Palästinenserstaat jetzt work in progress and in the making?

Zweistaatenlösung und Palästinenserstaat jetzt work in progress and in the making?

Scheinbar kommt nun Bewegung in Sachen Zweitsaatenlösung und Palästinenserstaat und kursieren heute in der Jerusalem Post Gerüchte und Berichte, dass die USA einen Palästinenserstaat nach dem Gazakrieg anerkennen könnten, sei es durch Zustimmung wie damals sowohl die USA und die Sowjetunion im Falle Israels oder dass sie kein Veto einlegen:

“US could recognize Palestinian state after Israel’s war in Gaza

‘We support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and we do a lot of work in the government to think about how to bring it about,” Miller said.

By TOVAH LAZAROFF, BARAK RAVIDJANUARY 31, 2024 19:07Updated: JANUARY 31, 2024 22:03

The United States is engaged in ongoing “planning processes” on how best to advance the establishment of a Palestinian state, US State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller said, but stressed that this was not a policy change.

“Yes, we are actively pursuing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with real security guarantees for Israel,” Miller told reporters in Washington on Wednesday.

‘We support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, and we do a lot of work in the government to think about how to bring it about,” Miller said.

“The vast majority of options never usually get implemented,” he stated.

He spoke about those efforts when quizzed by journalists about a report on the Hebrew website Walla about such efforts.

Blinken to push through recognition of Palestinian state?

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken ordered the US State Department to prepare staff work that will examine the possibility of American and international recognition of the state of Palestine the day after the war in Gaza, Walla reported citing two senior US administration officials.

Blinken also asked the State Department to submit proposals for what a „demilitarized Palestinian state“ might look like based on various models from around the world, an official said.

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A senior US official said that the war in Gaza and the efforts to find a diplomatic solution opened the way for a re-examination within the administration of many old paradigms in the policy of the United States towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. According to him, there are elements within the Biden administration who recommend changing policy and moving towards recognizing a Palestinian state as a first step in a renewed peace process and not as a last step that would be the result of negotiations between the parties.

There are several options for American action in this direction, the Walla report noted, ranging from a decision on US recognition of a Palestinian state to deciding not to veto a decision in the UN Security Council to accept Palestine as a full member of the organization, to encourage other countries in the West to recognize a Palestinian state.

A senior American noted that the examination of the issue is currently being carried out to suggest ways in which the two-state solution can be implemented in a way that will guarantee Israel’s security and not endanger it.

The official told Walla that the White House is aware of the State Department’s planned proposals, but emphasized that Blinken has not yet approved a new policy. A State Department spokesperson declined to comment on the matter.

A spokesman for the National Security Council at the White House said: „US policy for many years is that recognition of a Palestinian state should be the result of direct negotiations between the parties and not through unilateral recognition or through UN institutions. This policy has not changed.“

Blinken will meet with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in Washington on Wednesday and will discuss with him the situation in Gaza, the issue of the day after, and the efforts to promote a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.

Dermer met today at the White House with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to discuss the same issues.

Reactions by political officials

National Unity MK Gideon Sa’ar said that „a Palestinian state would endanger Israel’s security and its future. It will be a radical state, a base for Islamist terrorism and an alliance with the most extreme elements that will permanently destabilize the region. I am convinced that the United States, our greatest friend, will not allow such a dangerous move.“

Jason D. Greenblatt, a former White House and Middle East Envoy under the Trump administration, said that it would be a „betrayal of Israel & make things much more complicated to achieve something real down the road that could benefit everyone.

„This effort should be stopped immediately. It will make an intransigent Palestinian leadership in Ramallah even more so, and embolden Hamas & other terrorists to continue their bloody rampage. Truly the definition of ‚an absolutely terrible idea.'“

Why is this move by the State Department important?

The fact that the US State Department is considering this possibility indicates a change in thinking within the Biden administration on an issue that is considered highly sensitive both internationally and domestically in the United States.

For decades, the policy of the United States has been to oppose the recognition of Palestine as a state – both bilaterally and in the UN institutions – and to make it clear that a Palestinian state will only be achieved through direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Israel has been strongly opposed for years to any recognition of a Palestinian state by individual countries and by UN institutions.

The US State Department conducted a similar review in the past, during US President Barack Obama’s tenure, when the Palestinian Authority tried to obtain recognition of a Palestinian state through UN institutions. At that time, the Department prepared a document with policy proposals on the subject of recognizing a Palestinian state, but it was not seriously discussed within the administration.

In 2012, the UN General Assembly voted in favor of accepting Palestine as an „observer“ state in the UN – similar to the Vatican – without accepting it as a full member of the organization.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on Monday that Britain is considering recognizing a Palestinian state as part of an attempt to provide the Palestinians with a political horizon in the day after the war in Gaza.“We and our allies are examining the issue of recognizing a Palestinian state, including in the UN… This could be one of the things that will help make this process irreversible,“ he said.

Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.

US could recognize Palestinian state after Israel’s war in Gaza – The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Zwei Fragen, die einem da spontan kommen:

Würde Trump nach dem Gazakrieg einen palästinensischen Staat anerkennen? Hofft Netanjahu noch den Krieg solange zu führen bis Trump drankommt? Aber Trump hatte Netanjahu nach der Hamasattacke angegriffen und für ihn ist er ein Looser? Heißt es dann „You are fired“ und er wird ersetzt? Aber wäre das eine Garantie  für eine palästinensischen Staat, zumal es ja einen Trump-Plan gab und die US-Botschaft nach Jerusalem verlegt wurde?

Würde Deutschland einen Palästinenserstaat anerkennen, wenn die USA das tun oder zumindestens nicht ihr Veto im UN-Sicherheitsrat einlegen?

Inzwischen nimmt das jetzt auch seitens Israels und Netanjahus klnkrete Formen an. Nachdem die USA nun überlegen einen Pälästinenserstaat anzuerkennen, arbeitet Netanjahu schon einen eigenen Plan aus. Scheinbar will er da US- Plänen zuvorkommen oder die nach seinen Vorstellungen gestalten, ja vielleicht auch zeigen, dass Bidens Statement, dass eine Zweistaatenlösung mit Netanjahu möglich sei, der Wahrheit entspreche, zumal sich die angeblichne Pläne nicht nur auf den Gaza beschränken, sondern auch das Westjordanland umfassen, wie dann auch den ersehnten Saudi- Israel- Deal samt Weiterführung der Abraham Accords bewirken:

“The future of Gaza: Netanyahu’s strategic gambit unveiled

A covert Israeli plan aims to establish a military government in Gaza and foster regional ties, eyeing a future Palestinian state and peace with Saudi Arabia.

By BEN CASPITJANUARY 31, 2024 07:31Updated: JANUARY 31, 2024 14:24

Stage one involves the creation of a comprehensive Israeli military government in Gaza to oversee humanitarian aid and assume responsibility for the civilian population during a „transition period.“

Concurrently, stage two will see the formation of an international Arab coalition, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and others. This coalition is to be part of a broader regional normalization agreement, backing the establishment of „the new Palestinian Authority.“

Officials, neither affiliated with Hamas nor directly associated with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s (Abu Mazen) guard, will inherit Gaza’s governance from Israel, concluding the military administration. Israel will maintain the right to conduct security operations in Gaza, mirroring its operations in the West Bank, whenever operational needs to counter terror or terror infrastructures emerge.

Should this stage proceed smoothly within a predefined two to four-year timeline, Israel will recognize a delineated Palestinian state within the Palestinian Authority territories and consider transferring additional, non-settlement-requiring lands to that state.

This clandestine plan, devised in Israel by what’s herein referred to as „a group of businessmen,“ was also shared with official American figures. Among these businessmen, several are closely connected to Prime Minister Netanyahu, with one being especially close.

Representing Netanyahu’s trial balloon, this initiative aligns with the American-led comprehensive Middle East settlement effort, spanning Gaza, the Palestinian Authority, and Saudi Arabia. Although Netanyahu is not directly involved in these discussions (delegating to his trusted adviser Ron Dermer), he actively forwards and deliberates over these ideas, always able to deny direct involvement by attributing it to „businessmen.“

It’s crucial to note that this plan is part of Israel’s broader strategy for the „day after,“ alongside several other initiatives. Coordination is underway by Maj.-Gen. Rassan Alian, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, with the IDF and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) each developing their respective plans.

This approach typifies Netanyahu’s method: deploying multiple envoys for parallel missions while he himself remains non-committal. The businessmen’s scheme is the prime plan Netanyahu considers, yet from a „safe distance“ typical of his style.

For instance, early in the last decade, Netanyahu secretly engaged in protracted negotiations with Abu Mazen through the „London Channel,“ mediated by his then-confidant, lawyer Yitzhak Molcho, and Abu Mazen’s personal representative, Hussein Agha. Netanyahu confirmed to President Obama that he was conducting this track with his consent yet kept a „safe distance.“

This approach was later integrated into the negotiations led by US Secretary of State John Kerry with Israel and the Palestinian Authority, which culminated in a detailed American proposal for a Palestinian state—a proposal Israel agreed to, while Abu Mazen has yet to respond.

The question remains: Can Netanyahu pivot towards a historic action that would conclude the Gaza conflict and pave the way for a future Palestinian state alongside a landmark peace agreement with Saudi Arabia? The odds seem against it, given Netanyahu’s history of abandoning similar initiatives before fruition.

Nevertheless, it’s essential to remember that Netanyahu is aware his time is limited. His current legacy is marred by the October 7 massacre, a calamity unprecedented since the state’s founding. A move towards an agreement with Saudi Arabia and progress on the Palestinian front could alter the narrative he leaves behind, albeit in challenging times. The decision rests with him.

Netanyahu’s Gaza strategy: The gambit over the future of Gaza – The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Ja, Judea und Samaria da speziell erwähnt. Und wer soll die neue PA sein, die weder mit PLO noch mit Hamas affiliert sind oder waren. Gibt es das oder wird dann eine gut gezahlte Startup-Marionette eingesetzt, deren Frau dann wie Arafats Frau zum Shoppen nach Paris fliegt oder  wie Hamas-Fünktionäre, die ihr Luxusleben in Katar samt ihren Frauen in den dortigen Shopping Malls beim Juwelier verbringen? Oder will man sich an jene Gazajugend wenden, die gegen die Hamas vor dem Krieg demonstrierte .Aber Iran und andere radikale Palästinensergrupoen  setzen auch auf Gen Z?

Will Netanjahu nur Zeit gewinnen und hate einen Plan B oder meint er es ernst, dann könnte er und Biden ja sogar als List der Geschichte der große Gewinner und Dealbroker in die Geschichte eingehen. Ob das Trump gefallen würde? Und falls Netanjahu wirklich als Sieger des Krieges hervorgehen sollte oder aus dem Umfragetief und desaströsen Imageverlust wieder herauskommen sollte, wird er dann seine „Justizreform“ wieder fortführen, zumal wie reagieren dann Ben Gvir, Smotrich und die ganzen Siedler? Die dürften all diese Bemühungen ja wohl eher torpedieren wollen und ob die PLO und die Hamas ihrer Entmachtung so zusehen werden bleibt auch die Frage.

Und wie geschildert: Netanjahu hat schon oft solche Scheininitiative in der Vergangenheit gestartet, um sie ins tote laufen zu lassen. Ob er sich wirklich bewusst, dass seine Zeit abläuft und er eine Art bleibendes Bibi-Testament hinterlassen will. Sagt ja auch noch nichts darüber aus, welcher Art dies dann ist. Vielleicht auch, dass er mal wieder eine Zweistaatenlösung und einen Palästinenserstaat verhindert hat—trotz internationalen Drucks und als König David gegen Goliath. Und die Geschichte des Nahen Ostens ist da auch gemischt. Die Wandlung von Saulus zu Paulus wie im Falle Begins und Camp David oder Scharons Gaza-Rückzug. Aber eben auch Rabin. Zudem schütten die USA da gleich wieder etwas Salz in den Wein:

“State Department downplays report US weighing recognition of Palestinian state

Blinken said to request review of possible post-war steps, while spokesman notes that officials ‘look at any number of options. That’s part of the normal planning process’”

State Department downplays report US weighing recognition of Palestinian state | The Times of Israel

Kampflos wird dies wohl nicht stattfinden, falls überhaupt, aber immerhin mal ein Silberstreifen am Horizont.

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