NATO vor dem 75. Geburtstag und Global Britain: Todestag des Transatlantismus und der special relations?

NATO vor dem 75. Geburtstag und Global Britain: Todestag des Transatlantismus und der special relations?

Hatte nicht zuletzt Schröder und Chirac die Aufhebung des EU-Waffenexportverbots nach China gefordert und GB das damals in der EU blockiert. Scheinbar denkt man in Brexit-Global Britain nun selbst darüber nach. Ob das die special relations mit den USA samt den Five Eyes , belasten wird?J3denfalls scheint da vom US- Magazin Politico, das ja Springer- Döpfners BILD kaufen wollte oder auch schon hat mal folgendes geleakt:

„ Liz Truss secretly lobbied ministers to ‘expedite’ defense exports to China

Former UK prime minister’s private correspondence revealed in documents obtained by POLITICO.

LONDON — Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss secretly lobbied the British government to “expedite” the sale of defense equipment to China, documents released to POLITICO show.

In a private letter dated August 2023, Truss — who casts herself as the most high-profile China hawk on the Tory backbenches — asked Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch to intervene on behalf of a British defense manufacturer hoping to sell military equipment to China.

U.K. security officials had blocked Richmond Defence Systems — a defense firm based in Truss‘ Norfolk constituency — from exporting landmine disposal equipment to the People’s Republic of China.

Experts say the equipment could be used by Beijing in an invasion of Taiwan.

But Truss seemingly had no qualms about making the firm’s case in a private message to Badenoch, whom she had appointed to the Cabinet the previous year during her brief spell as U.K. prime minister.

„Dear Kemi,“ begins the letter from Truss, dated August 15, 2023. „I am writing on behalf of my constituent, whose application for a licence to supply goods to China was first submitted 03/01/2023 … I would be grateful can you [sic] expedite [the] licence.“

Truss‘ tough-on-China stance has been central to her political brand, both during her time in government — as U.K. foreign secretary and as prime minister — and subsequently as a backbench MP following her dramatic resignation from Downing Street.

In May 2023 — three months before she wrote to Badenoch — Truss even flew to Taiwan to make a speech urging her successor as PM, Rishi Sunak, to classify China as a “threat” to U.K. national security. She described the self-governing island as being “on the frontline of the global battle for freedom” against China. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping has not ruled out the use of force to fulfil Beijing’s long-standing ambition to reunify the island with the mainland — a process he called “inevitable” in his New Year’s address. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Xi has ordered China’s military to be ready as early as 2027.

Earlier in 2023, in her first speech after stepping down as PM, Truss had called for Taiwan to be given more arms to defend itself against the increasing threat of invasion.

But in her letter to Badenoch that summer, Truss warned that blocking a British firm from selling military equipment to China „would mean the loss of future sales running into the millions.“

She added that the firm believed that “if the license is not granted, the Chinese would simply reverse engineer and manufacture the products themselves.”

Truss‘ spokesperson insists she was simply doing her job as MP for South West Norfolk.

“Liz always takes up cases of constituents with government departments and follows up to get them the answers they need,” the spokesperson said.

But MPs are not obliged to act on all constituents’ requests — and experts and senior Tory MPs say Truss’ intervention may have threatened both Taiwan and the U.K.’s national interests.

‘A reckless act’

“It is against our national interests, and most certainly those of our ally Taiwan, to actively lobby for the export of a dual-use technology to a Chinese business subject to Chinese Communist Party coercion,” said Conservative MP Alicia Kearns, who chairs the House of Commons foreign affairs committee.

“De-mining equipment is subject to robust export controls for good reason.”

Richmond Defence Systems’ export license application was rejected by the government unit that reviews security exports in April 2023, according to correspondence between Whitehall officials and lawyers obtained by POLITICO.

The decision to block the sale of equipment specifically designed to detect and remove landmines and improvised explosive devices was partly over concern it could be sold on to the Chinese government, or others, after being received by the Chinese buyer, official internal correspondence shows.

Although the equipment is not covered by the U.K.’s current arms embargo on China, allowing it to be exported “would be a reckless act,” said Darren G. Spinck, an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society’s Asia Studies Centre.

Spinck points out Taiwan purchased mine-dispensing systems from the U.S. last spring. “The equipment, according to reports, would be used to deploy anti-tank mines to repel a [People’s Liberation Army] amphibious landing,” he said.

There are also “many ways in which a Taiwanese military could bog down or slow down” an invasion, said Andrew Yeh, executive director of the China Strategic Risks Institute, with “landmines and other mechanisms to slow down progress on land.”

He added: “It would be naive for any U.K. government official not to consider the risk that the equipment which ends up in China then ends up being used in an invasion scenario over Taiwan.“

Truss’ claim that the PRC would reverse engineer the technology “doesn’t hold much weight when it comes to the risk of conflict over Taiwan,” Yeh said.

“The PRC is ramping up its military modernization, and knows it is in a race against time as Taiwan’s international profile increases and as U.S.-supplied arms to Taiwan come online,” Yeh explained. “Every minute counts in this race, and so expediting the PRC’s capabilities — even by just a matter of months — shouldn’t be disregarded as inconsequential.”

Richmond Defence Systems did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

The equipment maker appealed the Export Control Joint Unit’s (ECJU) decision last May. The case is still being reviewed following Truss’ letter, according to one person familiar with the operations of the export watchdog. They were granted anonymity to discuss the ongoing review.

‘Routine correspondence’

Following Truss’ letter, further documents obtained by POLITICO show Badenoch’s team drafted a response in the secretary of state’s name.

“In some cases,” Badenoch’s draft reply to Truss explained, “we are required to balance the desire to move quickly through the system with the need for careful and thorough consideration of the application, and some decisions can take longer.”

Officials say Badenoch sent a later version of this letter in December 2023. The department refused to release the final version.

In a statement, a spokesperson for Badenoch suggested she now regrets her department releasing any of the correspondence under Freedom of Information (FOI) laws.

“We are concerned that MP correspondence and a draft letter have been disclosed in an FOI and are investigating how this occurred,” the spokesperson said.

The letter represents “routine correspondence between a secretary of state and an MP who is doing her job representing her constituency,” the spokesperson added.

Liz Truss secretly lobbied ministers to ‘expedite’ defense exports to China – POLITICO

Chinaexperte Hans van Ess meinte noch:

„Das wäre in der Tat eine dreiste Volte. Nachdem sie den gut bezahlten Job als Premier verloren hat, musste wohl Geld her.“


Dise Nachrcht vollzieht sich auch vor dem Hintergrund des Flügelstreits innerhalb der Torys, da Sunak ja stark angeschlagen ist. Vielleicht überlegen einige auch, ob man sich mehr auf Europa konzentrieren sollte und das Global Britain samt AUKUS aufgeben sollte und mehr balance of power und splendid isolation Aber das klappte noch als British Empire das man nicht mehr ist.  Zumal bei einem Putin- Trumpdeal  das in Kontinentaleuropa auch anders, aussehen würde. Vielleicht auch Diskussionen der City of London hinter den Kulissen, ob die special relation bei möglichem Ende der NATO noch so vorteilhaft sind und ma  da nicht besser fährt mit China den Ausgleich zu suchen und die britischen Interessen samt Hongkong da anderweitig zu realisieren. Oder ist es nur Liz Truss neoliberale Geldgier ?Die Frage, ob das mehr als ein paar Lobbyonteressen der britischen Rüstungsindustrie ist oder eine Rückkehr zum Engagement der Cameronära? Gab ja zuletzt auch die Enthüllungen um die britische Chinalobby des 48er Clubs, wobei die Global Times den ja als guten alten Freund Chinas immer noch hoffiert. Wie wohl Biden und Trump drauf reagieren würden. Was würde aus dem AUKUS? Naja,Trump würde auch auf die Briten pfeifen und das alleine gegen China durchziehen .Aber falls er die NATO auflösen sollte oder durch ein Netz bilateraler Verteidigungsbündnisse ersetzen würde, wäre die Frage, ob er das den Briten verzeihen würde. Aber ohne das ersehnte Handelsabkommen mit den USA und ohne EU-Binnenmarkt, könnte GB sein Glück auch in China suchen .Xi würde es freuen

Da bei einer Wiederwahl Trump der 75. Jährige Geburtstag der NATO zugleich auch ihr Todestag sein könnte, Börsenexpertin Navidi meinte, dass die check and balances nichts groß bremsen könnten, Trump erst einmal eine radikale Ministerriege um sich versammeln würde, den ganzen Beamten und Staatsapperat auswechseln würde, die sogenannten Globalistennetzwerke inklusive der transatlantisczhen auflösen und sich wie Putin mit einer Oligarchenclique umgeben würde, die auch an ihn und seine Famiie zahlen müssten und seine als seine Wehrwirtschaftsführer dienen sollen, kommen jetzt seitens des ehemaligen NATO- Generalsekretärs verzweifelte Vorschläge, wie denn die Demokaraten Trump noch verhindern könnten, auch wenn das Biden wohl auch ieder Stimmen bei den linken Progressives wie schon der Gazakrieg kosten dürtte: Zustimmung der Demokraten zu Trumps Mauer zur Rettung der NATO und Ukraine.

“Former NATO chief to Democrats: Cut a border deal to help Ukraine and beat Trump

“Biden has an interest in solving that issue before the election,” Rasmussen told POLITICO.

By MATT BERG

01/17/2024 05:00 AM EST

NATO's new Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen addresses the media.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, 70, said Democrats should take a warning about immigration from European politics. | Yves Logghe/AP

The former secretary general of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, is urging Democrats to cut a border enforcement deal with Republicans to secure new aid for the war in Ukraine and other U.S. allies.

And, he argued in an interview, that deal would help Democrats in the 2024 election, too.

“If I were asked by Democrats what to do, my advice would be to accommodate Republican views on the border issue and create a package with four elements: support for Ukraine, support for Israel, support for Taiwan and solve the border issue,” Rasmussen said.

He added: “President Biden has an interest in solving that issue before the election campaign starts in earnest.”

Democrats have been trying for months to unlock billions of dollars in foreign aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, but Republicans refuse to budge on legislation unless it also includes key measures to strengthen the southern border.

Rasmussen said that Democrats should see it as being in their political interests to strike a deal on the border, in order to defuse a political vulnerability ahead of the next election. If there are Democrats standing in the way of a tougher border policy, Rasmussen said he hopes they will “come to their senses.”

“If I were in the leadership of the Democratic campaign, I would not hesitate to close this issue — to accommodate Republicans to make it a non-issue in the coming election campaign,” he said.

A former prime minister of Denmark, Rasmussen, 70, said Democrats should take a warning about immigration from European politics: There, governments seen as failing to control migration have faced serious blowback at the polls. That happened most recently in the Netherlands, where the immigration issue brought down a center-right government and helped the hard right surge to victory in a November election.

“If you do not address the immigration issue and the border issue effectively, then you will fuel extremists,” he said, adding: “On both sides of the political spectrum.”

Rasmussen spoke with POLITICO during a visit to Washington, where he intended to speak with hard-right members of the House Freedom Caucus to make the case for aiding Ukraine. It is the latest in a series of trips he has made to the United States to advocate for Ukraine.

Failing to continue Ukraine assistance “would be the withdrawal from Afghanistan on steroids,” Rasmussen said, invoking what is seen by many as the largest stain on the Biden administration’s foreign policy record.

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The former military bloc leader said he planned to push back on Republican perceptions that Europe is relying on the United States to shoulder a disproportionate burden in the war effort. In fact, he’ll argue that Europe has spent more than the U.S. on military assistance to Ukraine — $59 billion versus $48 billion, he said.

Halting aid to Ukraine, which has been fending off Russian troops since February 2022, could pave the way for Moscow’s victory and weaken the United States, he added.

“It’s not true when they are arguing that Europeans do not step up to the plate and do not share a fair burden of support for Ukraine,” Rasmussen said.

In his bid to win over the GOP, Rasmussen — who led NATO from 2009 to 2014 — plans to draw on his deeper political roots as a conservative politician in Denmark. During his eight years as prime minister, Rasmussen governed from the right of center and described himself in the interview as deeply committed to free markets and supportive of the United States.

He suggested that some of the Freedom Caucus members might appreciate a book he authored in 1993 under the title, From Social State to Minimal State.

“I’m not a liberal in the American sense of the word,” he said. “I think I’m one of the most pro-American European politicians.”

Still, Rasmussen made plain that he is uncomfortable with the Republican Party’s turn toward Trumpism and the growing influence of isolationist ideas in the party. He spoke with POLITICO the day after Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses in a landslide.

Rasmussen said he took some encouragement from the resilience of Nikki Haley, the former ambassador to the United Nations, in the Republican race. He said he is following her candidacy closely, as “she’s very much in line with my thinking about world affairs.”

The former NATO chief then showed just how closely he is following the race, suggesting that Haley might be able to parlay a second place showing in the upcoming New Hampshire primary into an outright victory in South Carolina, where she served as governor.

Haley’s endurance in the race, Rasmussen said, shows that “in the Republican Party — despite Trumpism — there is a classical Republican sentiment that I think Trump should take into account.

Former NATO chief to Democrats: Cut a border deal to help Ukraine and beat Trump – POLITICO

An der Ostfront hofft man nach ausbleibenden Wunderwaffen und game changern, gescheiterter Ukraineoffensive, nun darauf, dass Putin das Geld ausgeht:

„Russland verbrennt im Ukraine-Krieg sein Geld – Staatsfonds noch zwei Jahre liquide

Stand:19.01.2024, 10:04 Uhr

Von: Lars-Eric Nievelstein

UKRAINE-AKTUELL: Putin plant angeblich schon die nächste Eskalation – Sorge im Baltikum wächst

Sanktionen und Kriegsbemühungen setzen die russische Wirtschaft unter Druck. Das Land setzt seinen Staatsfonds ein, um sie zu stützen. Die Hälfte der liquiden Mittel ist verbrannt.

Moskau – Seit dem Einmarsch Moskaus in die Ukraine ist der Bestand der liquiden Mittel im russischen Staatsfonds drastisch zurückgegangen. Einem Bericht von Bloomberg Economics zufolge, der sich auf Daten des russischen Finanzministeriums stützt, geht es allein in den letzten zwei Jahren um einen Rückgang um 44 Prozent. Bloomberg rechnet hier seit Februar 2022. Ökonomen gehen davon aus, dass die liquiden Mittel des Fonds noch maximal für zwei weitere Jahre ausreichen werden. Dafür gibt es jedoch eine Voraussetzung.

Rückgang der liquiden Mittel im russischen Staatsfonds (Bloomberg)56 Milliarden Dollar (fünf Billionen Rubel)
Preis des Barrels Ural-Rohöl (2023)62,99 US-Dollar
Wachstum der Bestände an russischen Unternehmen und Infrastrukturanleihen2 Billionen Rubel
Tatsächliches Datum des russischen Einmarschs in der Ukraine20. Februar 2014

Russischer Staatsfonds schrumpft – liquide Mittel reichen noch für zwei Jahre

Insgesamt handelt es sich um eine Summe von rund fünf Billionen Rubel (in etwa 56 Milliarden Dollar), die Russland zwischen Februar 2022 und Jahresbeginn 2024 aus dem Staatsfonds ziehen musste. Damals lagen die leicht liquidierbaren Vermögenswerte des Fonds noch bei 8,9 Billionen Rubel, also ungefähr 100,4 Milliarden US-Dollar.

Der Gesamtbestand des Fonds sank im selben Zeitraum um zwölf Prozent. Nachdem Russland seine Verteidigungsausgaben drastisch hochgefahren hatte, musste die Regierung außerdem etwa drei Billionen Rubel aus dem Fonds dafür verwenden, um das Haushaltsdefizit zu decken. Ökonomen gehen davon aus, dass die liquiden Mittel des Fonds noch maximal zwei Jahre lang reichen, falls der russische Ölexportpreis unter 50 Dollar pro Barrel fällt.

Russland nutzt Staatsfonds, um Wirtschaft zu stützen

Während die liquiden Mittel des nationalen Wohlstandsfonds in Russland schrumpften, wuchsen die Bestände an russischen Unternehmen und Infrastrukturanleihen. Berechnungen zufolge war hier ein Wachstum von zwei Billionen Rubel zu erkennen. Bloomberg zufolge ist das ein Zeichen dafür, dass Russland die liquiden Reserven für die Unterstützung der Wirtschaft einsetzt.

Ukraine-Krieg und Ölpreis treffen die russische Wirtschaft

Was dringend nötig zu sein scheint, denn diese kämpft mit mehreren Problemen. Eines davon ist der Kriegsverlauf. Nicht nur hat die Ukraine es geschafft, weite Teile des 2022 von Russland besetzten Gebiets wieder zu befreien, sie landet immer wieder überraschende Treffer weit hinter der Frontlinie und zerstört dabei teures Material. Ein Beispiel dafür ist die fliegende Kommandozentrale Ilyushin Il-22.

Ein weiteres Problem ist der schwächelnde Ölpreis. Dieser sank innerhalb der letzten zwölf Monate um rund zehn Prozent. Für Russland ist Öl eine der wichtigsten Einnahmequellen: Aktuell nehmen China und Indien viel russisches Öl und Gas ab und drücken die Preise. Das wichtige Rohöl aus dem Ural kostete im vergangenen Jahr 62,99 US-Dollar pro Barrel. Das bedeutet einen Rückgang um 17 Prozent. Beim Gas sind Gewinneinbußen von bis zu 65 Prozent messbar.

Westliche Sanktionen und die Jagd auf russische Oligarchen

Problem Nummer drei: Westliche Sanktionen. Diese richten sich verstärkt auf „Dual Use“-Sektoren, also solche, die sowohl der Kriegswirtschaft als auch der normalen dienlich sein können – Öl, zum Beispiel. Westliche Sanktionen haben unter anderem die Fertigstellung der Erdgasverflüssigungsanlage „Arctic LNG 2“ beeinträchtigt, ein Prestigeprojekt der Moskauer Regierung.

Zum Jahresbeginn 2024 hat sich die Europäische Union außerdem den Diamantensanktionen angeschlossen und einen Handelsbann über den russischen Diamantriesen Alrosa und dessen Vorstand verhängt. Und zuletzt macht die EU weiter „Jagd“ auf russische Oligarchen und unternimmt Schritte, um ihnen den Besitz von Vermögenswerten in Europa zu erschweren.

Russland verbrennt im Ukraine-Krieg sein Geld – Staatsfonds noch zwei Jahre liquide (merkur.de)

Gute Frage: Hat Putin nur den Staatsfonds und sonst keinen Haushalt und Vermögen? Wird so getan, als sei er in 2 Jahren Pleite und sei das dann das Ende .Soll man das glauben? Ob China da einen Kredit geben würde? Zumal Trump dnn auch US- Präsident sein könnte, worauf Putin ja kalkuliert.

 Nach Veröffentlichung eines Bundeswehrplans und nun den NATO-Manövern in Litauen und russischen Drohgebärden gegen das Baltikum wegen der Auslandsrussen , di dann vielleicht mal als russiche Welt wieder geschützt werden müssn,  ist auch folgende Nachricht noch interessant:

“ Minsk’s military doctrine sees deploying nuclear arms as strategic deterrence measure

Reuters

Published: 19 January ,2024: 01:01 PM GSTUpdated: 19 January ,2024: 01:03 PM GST

The new military doctrine of Belarus considers the deployment of nuclear weapons in the country as a forced measure of strategic deterrence, the TASS news agency reported on Friday, citing the Belarusian defense ministry.

TASS said the new military doctrine also describes the actions the Belarusian army would take in case of any armed aggression against Minsk’s allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which comprises several former Soviet republics, or the Union State of Belarus and Russia.

At the same time, Minsk says it is ready to resume dialogue with NATO countries, “provided their aggressive rhetoric against Belarus is stopped,” TASS reported.

Belarus, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, shares borders with NATO members Poland and Lithuania as well as with Russia and Ukraine.

Minsk’s military doctrine sees deploying nuclear arms as strategic deterrence measure (alarabiya.net)

“Belarus president Lukashenko says Russian nuclear weapons shipments complete

The Associated Press

Published: 26 December ,2023: 10:16 AM GSTUpdated: 26 December ,2023: 10:18 AM GST

The president of Belarus said Monday that Russia has completed its shipments of tactical nuclear weapons to his country, an initiative that raised strong concerns in neighboring Poland and elsewhere in the region.

President Alexander Lukashenko said at a meeting of a Moscow-led economic bloc in St. Petersburg that the shipments were completed in October, but he did not give details of how many weapons were sent or where they have been deployed.

Tactical nuclear weapons, which are intended for use on the battlefield, have a short range and a low yield compared with much more powerful nuclear warheads fitted to long-range missiles. Russia said it would maintain control over those it sends to Belarus.

Lukashenko has said that hosting Russian nuclear weapons in his country is meant to deter aggression by Poland, a NATO member. Poland is offering neighbor Ukraine military, humanitarian and political backing in its struggle against Russia’s invasion and is taking part in international sanctions on Russia and Belarus.

Russian troops based in Belarus invaded Ukraine from the north in the war’s opening days, but Belarusian forces are not known to have participated.

Belarus president Lukashenko says Russian nuclear weapons shipments complete (alarabiya.net)

Bleibt abzuwarten, wann eine neue russische Nuklearstrategie wie etwa Karaganow das fordert noch kommt, nachdem sich Nordkorea nun eine solche zugelegt hat und wann die USA, China, Indien und andere folgen werden.

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