Türkische Intervention in Nordsyrien?
Wie es aussieht, bereitet sich die Türkei auf eine begrenzte Militäraktion in Syrien bevor, vor allem um die Etablierung eines kurdischen Staates in Nordsyrien zu verhindern. Während Erdogans Ambitionen weitergehender sind (letztendlich die Eroberung Damaskus als ersten Baustein seines neoosmanischen Reichs), versucht das Militär die Aktion noch zu begrenzen und drängt auf eine Abstimmung mit Assad, den USA, Russland und dem Iran.Dies aber dürfte Erdogan nicht reichen. Ein derartiger Einsatz dürfte für ihn nur als erster Schritt eines größeren Engagements mit dem Ziel das Assadregime zu stürzen sein. Innenpolitisch muss er sich aber erst noch durchsetzen. Zum einen über Neuwahlen oder eine Koalition, zum anderen muss er die Ablösung General Özels im August abwarten, der solch eine Militäraktion nur aufs Minimalste, zumal unter Zustimmung der wesentlichen internationalen Mitspieler im Syrienkonflikt begrenzen möchte.Wenn die Türkei gegen die YPG in Syrien vorgeht, könnte dies wiederum zu Reaktionen der PKK in der Türkei führen und die Lage so polarisieren, dass auch die prokurdische HDP als neuer Staatsfeind seitens AKP, MHP und CHP gebrandmarkt wird oder aber IS-Attentate in der Türkei stattfinden.Aber wahrscheinlich ist, dass sich Militär, MHP, CHP bei einer Ausrufung des Kriegszustands oder des Ausnahmezustands mit Erdogan gegen die Kurden, egal, ob nun YPG, PKK oder HDP verbünden würden. Man denke analog an die Zustimmung aller deutschen demokratischen Parteien zum Kommunistenverbot Hitlers 1933. Beim darauffolgenden Ermächtigungsgesetz stimmte nur noch die SPD dagegen, aber da war es schon zu spät.In dieser Situation könnte Erdogan aber auch auf eine Etablierung seiner erhofften Präsidialdiktatur mittels Kriegsrecht oder Ausnahmezustand hoffen, es sei denn es findet sich noch ein couragierter türkischer Militär, der selbst den Ausnahmezustand definieren will und den Al-Sissi macht.Aber momentan sieht es eher so aus, dass General Özel den Oberst Beck der Reichswehr macht, der zugunsten von Eroberungskriegen einfach nur zurücktritt, sich zwar nicht dafür engagieren will, aber dem expansionitsichen Projekt eines neoosmanischen oder großdeutschen Reichs auch keinen Widerstand mehr in den Weg legt. Aber es wird erst einmal viel von der innenpolitischen Entwicklung in der Türkei abhängen, welche Ziele der Militäraktion sich durchsetzen werden. Momentan sieht es erst mal nach der Errichtung einer demilitarisierten Zone in Nordsyrien aus, ergänzt vielleicht mit einem Grenzzaun. Lesenswert hierzu der Artikel von Juan Cole, der dies näher erläutert:
http://www.juancole.com/2015/06/turkey-ankara-imagines.html
Zur weiteren innenpolitischen Entwicklung noch ein Beitrag der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik zu den Parlamentswahlen in der Türkei, die sie nicht als Beitrag einer Demokratisierung, sondern eher als Polarisierung ziwschen Ethnien sieht und eher instabile Verhältnisse befürchtet–sie spielt drei Szenarien durch: AKP-MHP-Koalition, dadurch innere Polarisierung mit Kurden und Demokraten und innenpolitische Instablität. Koalition AKP-CHP wird als günstigste Konstellation gesehen, auch um die außenpolitische Feindschaft mit Syrien, Ägypten, Israel, u.a. zu korrigieren,wobei ich aber nicht glaube, dass Erdogan das will, sondern immer noch auf sein neoosmanisches Reich mithilfe der Muslimbrüder setzt. Drittes Szenario: Neuwahlen, auf die Erdogan hinzielt, da in einer instabilen Türkei der Ruf nach einem Führer laut werden könnte, wobei dies auch nicht sicher ist nach den Wahlverlusten der AKP. Näheres unter:
http://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/aktuell/2015A59_srt.pdf
In der westlichen Berichterstattung ist als den wesentlichen Kräften in Nordsyrien nur von der YPG und der IS zu lesen. Völlig unterbelichtet bleibt die zunehmende Rolle der neugegründeten Jaysh al-Fateh in Nordsyrien, einer neuen islamistischen Gruppe, die schnell Mitglieder gewinnt und von Erdogan, Saudiarabien und Katar als Gegenpol gegen Assad, IS und die YPG aufgebaut wird–inwieweit es sich dabei im Kern um eine Formation der Muslimbrüder handelt, wenngleich auch die Al Nusra vertreten ist, bleibt noch unklar.Jedenfalls dürfte die Jaysh al-Fatah eine ähnliche Rolle wie die UCK gegen Serbien bei einer Militäraktion der Türkei spielen. Jedenfalls werden die angrenzenden Regionalmächte immer mehr in die Konflikte reingezogen–Iran in Irak, Syrien und Yemen, Saudiarabien in Yemen und nun scheinbar die Türkei in Syrien.Abzuwarten bleibt, ob sich nach dem instabilen Balkan, Griechenland, nun auch die Türkei destabilisiert, d.h. die Südflanke der NATO instabiler wird, Putin seine Sommeroffensive in der Ukraine beginnen wird und ob China diese Turbulenzen nutzen wird, um die dann allseits geforderte USA im Südchinesischen Meer herauszufordern.Auch bleibt die Frage, wie sich die NATO zu einer solchen türkischen Intervention stellen würde und wie sie reagieren würde, falls die Türkei kurdischerseits oder von dem IS angegriffen würde.
Hier einige ausgesuchte Artikel aus türkischen Medien (Hürriyet, Cumhürriyet und das Gülenorgan Today´s Zaman) und der Jamestown Foundation, die das Bild abrunden und differenzieren.
(TZ/IZ). Wie die englischsprachige Tageszeitung „Today’s Zaman“ am 28. Juni unter Berufung auf türkische Medien, Insider und Regierungsvertreter in einem Hintergrundartikel schrieb, konkretisierten sich Ankaras Interventionspläne südlich der Grenze. Dabei gehe es der Regierung, so der englischsprachige „Zaman“-Ableger, sowohl um die Schwächung von IS-Einheiten, um die Sicherung grenznaher Gebiete und darum, dass sich nicht zu viel Macht in den Händen PKK-naher Verbände bündle. Die Regierung befürchtet, dass der Syrienkrieg sowie der Aufstieg der IS-Terrormiliz einem unabhängigen kurdischen Gebiet Vorschub gibt.
Nach Berichten habe die Militärführung die Regierung gebeten, diplomatisch den Boden vorzubereiten, damit es überhaupt zu anstehenden Operationen an der syrischen Grenze kommen könne. Als „Bedrohung“ benannte die Zeitung die Einheiten des „Islamischen Staates“ und die kurdischen PYD-Truppen.
Laut Medienberichten habe das Militär am Wochenende bereits seine Befehle erhalten, entsprechende Maßnahmen zu ergreifen. Dazu gehöre ein Vordringen auf syrisches Territorium, um den Vormarsch von IS-Einheiten sowie der PYD aufzuhalten. Langfristig solle eine Veränderung der demografischen Zusammensetzung in den Provinzen entlang der türkischen Grenze verhindert werden, schrieb die „Zaman“.
Grundsätzlich hätte die Armee dem Vorhaben zugestimmt und wolle seine Aufgabe erfüllen. Sie habe aber die Regierung gebeten, sich diplomatisch mit den USA, Russland und Iran abzusprechen, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit weiterer Komplikationen zu verhindern. Das Oberkommando sorge sich darum, dass es ohne vorherige Beratung zum Konflikt mit diesen Mächten kommen könne. Ohne Konsultationen mit dem Assad-Regime könne es zur Verletzung des internationalen Rechts kommen.
Wie die „Cumhuriyet“ am 28. Juni berichtete, seien die Planungen fortgeschritten. Das Operationsgebiet solle eine Breite von 100 Kilometern haben und 20-30 Kilometer tief in syrisches Gebiet hineinragen. Solch eine Offensive benötige einen Aufmarsch auf Korps-Niveau, da bisherige Grenzeinheiten nicht darauf eingestellt seien. Mechanisierte und gepanzerte Einheiten müssten zur Unterstützung eingesetzt werden. Laut „Cumhuriyet“ sei noch zu keiner Mobilisierung dieser Art gekommen. Bisher befinde sich die Armee nur in der Planungsphase.
Nach Angaben der „Hürriyet“ erstelle das Militär derzeit Pläne. Dazu gehöre die Entsendung von Bodentruppen nach Jarabulus. Der Ort liegt an der türkischen Grenzen. Kurzfristig sei die Schaffung einer 10-Kilometer tiefen Sicherheitszone angestrebt.
Andere Berichte besagten, so der Artikel von „Today’s Zaman“, die türkische Regierung arbeite an Plänen zum Bau einer Sicherheitsmauer entlang der syrischen Grenzen. Ein diesbezüglicher Artikel der Tageszeitung „Milliyet“ sprach von einer 3,5 Meter hohen Mauer an 911 Kilometer langen Grenze, um illegale Invasion in die Türkei aus Syrien zu verhindern.
– See more at: http://www.islamische-zeitung.de/?id=19281#sthash.LvZBlk9G.dpuf
http://www.islamische-zeitung.de/?id=19281
Erdoğan says Turkey not to allow Kurdish state in northern Syria
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said his country will not allow the establishment of an independent state in northern Syria, once again voicing Turkey’s concerns of a Kurdish autonomous region being formed in the void left by Islamic of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in the region.
“I am appealing to the whole world. We will never allow the establishment of a state in Syria’s north and our south. We will continue our fight in this regard no matter what it costs. They want to complete the operation to change the demographic structure of the region. We will not turn a blind eye to this,” Erdoğan said during a fast-breaking dinner hosted by Kızılay (Turkish Red Crescent) on Friday.
Turkey, a country with its own sizable Kurdish minority, is uncomfortable with the gains made by Kurdish militia in Syria, fearing it could inflame separatist sentiment among its own Kurdish population.
Ankara has frequently expressed concern over the dominance of the US-backed Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria. It accuses the Kurdish militia of deliberately attempting an ethnic cleansing of the area in a bid to change the demographic balance of the region in favor of the Kurds.
Erdoğan earlier voiced concern about the YPG dominance in the region, pointing out that Kurds were taking over areas from which Arabs and Turkmen were being forcibly displaced. Erdoğan accused the West of backing what he called Kurdish terrorists and said the outcome could eventually threaten Turkey’s border.
Backed by air forces from the global anti-ISIL coalition, the YPG has made swift gains and pushed back ISIL after months of heavy fighting in the struggle to defend Kobani — another contested town on the Turkish-Syrian border. The retention of Kobani was seen as a turn in the tide against ISIL. Turkey was forced to absorb more than 150,000 civilians during brutal clashes in and around Kobani in late 2014.
Erdoğan said in October that it was wrong of the United States to air-drop military supplies to Kurdish fighters defending Kobani, as some weapons were seized by ISIL militants surrounding it.
Turkish army reluctant over government will to intervene in Syria
Murat YETKİN
Turkey’s government wants more active military action to support the Free Syrian Army (FSA) against the regime, Kurdish and jihadist forces in Syrian territory, but the military is reluctant to do so, playing for time as the country heads for a new coalition government, official sources told the Hürriyet Daily News.
According to the HDN sources, who asked not to be named, the “active support” which Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu government has been seeking from the military ranges from long-range artillery fire (not only in retaliatory terms) against the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) positions in Syrian territory to air operations and entering Syria with land forces to secure a strip along the Turkish border.
One source explained the “need” as to “prevent more clashes between the ISIL and the Kurdish forces led by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), prevent the PYD from taking full control over the Turkish-Syrian border and create a safe zone against a new wave of refugees on Syrian territory, no longer in Turkey.”
Chief of General Staff Gen. Necdet Özel has delayed the government directive with justifications of international law and politics and the uncertainty of reactions from the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, as well as from its supporters Russia and Iran, together with the United States.
The government has been conducting dialogue since then to convince the army on its plans.
The contacts with the Americans have provided limited to U.S.-led coalition attacks on ISIL – limited because Turkey has not opened the İncirlik air base in Adana yet, meaning the jets are taking off from Kuwait and Qatar.
In that context, the actions against ISIL and its contacts with the Syrian regime was discussed between Turkish Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioğlu and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Middle East and Africa special envoy, Mikhail Bogdanov, on June 24 in Ankara. The sources said Russia has acknowledged that there could be cooperation between al-Assad and ISIL forces (especially after a series of meetings with them on May 28-31 in Haseke near the Turkish border) regarding the recent westward attack by ISIL and agreed to talk about the situation with Damascus. But there is no information showing that Russia would turn a blind eye to Turkey’s active military intervention in Syria.
The situation in Syria, including the fate of al-Assad, was discussed between Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan in Baku on June 15, but the key meeting in Ankara with the Turkish decision-makers was held three days later on June 18.
According to the HDN sources, Davutoğlu suggested that it could be time for Turkey to intervene in the situation in Syria, especially targeting the town of Jarabulus based on the assessments of the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) that ISIL could launch new attacks from there, especially after the PYD’s taking of Tel Abyad from ISIL on June 16.
Özel said he needed a written directive for that. When Davutoğlu could not convince Özel that the earlier motion by the parliament would be enough, he asked his office to produce a new government directive immediately which they did and he signed.
With the directive in writing, Özel began to list certain consequences of an active Turkish intervention into Syrian territory, whether it would be directed at ISIL, which is a legitimate target for all U.N. members. Özel said ISIL could attack Turkish soldiers there and civilians in Turkey, the Turkish army could come to face to face with the PYD, as well as its Turkey-based sister organization, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), on Syrian soil, while the PKK could resume actions in Turkey following a three-year period of relative silence thanks to the government’s Kurdish peace initiative.
He also said that since al-Assad forces have been cooperating with ISIL, the Syrian Air Force could attack Turkish targets which would make it necessary for the Turkish military to retaliate. That’s why he said the Syrian government should know that Turkey was entering its territory to fight terrorism and secure refugees. That is how the recent diplomatic efforts started.
But in the meantime, ISIL attacked Kobane on June 25 from Jarabulus, killing dozens, the next day that the Turkish and Russian foreign ministries were talking on the issue.
The developments have apparently made the Davutoğlu government nervous.
The military does not want to get into a major military action on the directives of the Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) government which lost its parliamentary majority in the June 7 elections. The coalition talks to form a new government with either the Republican Peoples’ Party (CHP) or the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will start next week and if a new government is formed in weeks’ time, the directive which might lead to a war could be obsolete. It is a fact that if the CHP becomes a coalition partner, which is more likely, that Turkey’s policy on Syria and ISIL could change.
There is also the factor of a reshuffle among military ranks. The office of Özel ends in August and civilian sources speculate that he is playing with time in order not to become the general that takes Turkey into war at a critical time.
Özel elected for surgery in May, before the elections, when again there were rumors that the government wanted more active military involvement regarding ISIL and PYD forces in Syria.
June/27/2015
The Rise of Jaysh al-Fateh in Northern Syria
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 13 Issue: 12
June 12, 2015 03:55 PM Age: 8 hrs
By: Wladimir van Wilgenburg
A new Islamist coalition called the Army of Conquest (Jaysh al-Fateh) has in the last few months have scored significant victories against the Syrian government, capturing most of Idlib province (al-Jazeera, June 6). The group also possibly plans to attack the Syrian government positions in Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Lattakia, most recently cutting off a key supply route to Aleppo (al-Sharq al-Awsat, June 6). The newly formed Islamist coalition mainly attacks the Syrian government, but it is also involved in clashes with the Islamic State in northern Aleppo. [1] The new coalition’s remarkable success, such as its capture of Idlib only a few days after its official founding on March 24, seems to be due to a number of factors (Syria Direct, March 25). These include: new cooperation against the Syrian government by key regional powers (Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar) after years of disunity, the Syrian government’s lack of manpower, new coordination between rebel groups and the defeat of U.S.-backed groups in Idlib, which resulted in this coalition acquiring their heavy weapons.
Foundation
Jaysh al-Fateh was formed in March 2015, and includes most Islamist rebel groups, with the prominent exception of the Islamic State. According to a Jabhat al-Nusra source, the alliance controls in between 12,000-15,000 fighters. [2] The coalition includes most importantly al-Qaeda’s Syrian front, Jabhat al-Nusra, which is led by Abu Muhammed al-Julani. Moreover, it also includes other Islamist rebel groups such as Jund al-Aqsa, Ahrar al-Sham, Liwa al-Haqq, Jaysh al-Sunna, Ajnad al-Sham and Faylaq al-Sham (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, June 6). The coalition also has relations with other groups such as the Islamic Army, which it cooperated with against Assad in Jisr al-Shughur and against the Islamic State in north Aleppo. [3] Reportedly, Faylaq al-Sham is backed by Saudi Arabia, while Ahrar al-Sham reportedly receives support from Turkey (Zaman al-Wasl, May 15; al-Jazeera, April 5).
Cooperation Between Allies
According to some sources, the new success of the rebel coalition is the result of a new détente between Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which aims to stop what they see as Iran’s expansion in the region, leading to a joint decision to collectively support Sunni rebels against the Syrian government (al-Jazeera, May 24). There are several indications that Turkey and Saudi Arabia at least support members of this new alliance against the Syrian government, and several meetings were held in Turkey. In addition, a statement released by Faylaq al-Sham in May supported Saudi Arabia’s actions against the allegedly Iranian-backed Houthi movement in Yemen, underlining the regional dimensions of this anti-Iranian alliance (Zaman al-Wasl, May 15). Moreover, Turkey maintains a close relation with Ahrar al-Sham, and Turkish intelligence has most likely has been shipping weapons to Ahrar al-Sham (al-Jazeera, April 5; Al-Monitor, June 2).
It is not only Western analysts who suggest that Jaysh al-Fateh is backed by regional groups; the Islamic State also accuses Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar of funnelling aid to the rebel coalition to help them to both combat Assad in Idlib and Qalamoun and to attack the Islamic State in Qalamoun. [4] The Islamic State has tried to argue that any group that allies with such “apostates” is itself apostate, in order to discredit Jabhat al-Nusra and to justify attacks against the group. Other rebel groups see no problem in receiving support from other states, as long as it is used against the Syrian government of Assad and not other Islamic rebel groups. This indicates that more clashes between the Islamic State and Jaysh al-Fateh (and Jabhat al-Nusra) will happen in the future in northern Aleppo and Qalamoun. And that even if Assad is weakened in Idlib and Aleppo, there might be more clashes between the Islamic State and its rivals.
Coordination
However, a Jabhat al-Nusra fighter nicknamed Abu Muhammad Holandi, who is in contact with that group’s leadership, denies any financial link between Jaysh al-Fateh and Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, and says that there is no joint cooperation to stop Iran’s expansion in the region:
It should be mentioned that the Jaysh al-Fateh alliance does not receive any foreign backing. This was one of the preconditions of forming the alliance. With this support, I mean financial support, since within Jaysh al-Fateh there are a few groups that receive support from foreign countries. [5]
He suggested that the main reason for the successes of the alliance is not due to foreign support, but coordination and unity between the rebel groups that defeated Assad in Idlib. Moreover, he said that the fact the groups share with Saudi Arabia and Qatar a common enemy in Iran does not necessarily make Jabhat al-Nusra and other groups allies: “There is no cooperation at all with these countries, everything that Nusra carries out is in cooperation with these groups.”
While the Islamic State wants other groups to swear allegiance, Jabhat al-Nusra’s comparative flexibility and pragmatism has led to it receiving support from some parts of the Syrian population, which has enabled it to fight the Syrian government more effectively. In addition, Jabhat al-Nusra has reportedly formed several joint operation rooms with other groups which are part of Jaysh al-Fateh, which are also better equipped through receiving arms, ammunition and supplies from Turkey and the Saudis (International Business Times, March 31).
Increased Capabilities
Jabhat al-Nusra’s supporters also say that another key factor in the group’s rise is its earlier defeat of U.S.-backed groups, such as Harakat Hazm and its allies and the Syrian Revolutionaries Front (SRF) in November 2014, have also enabled it to refocus its efforts on defeating Assad. Holandi said:
We see that since the U.S.-supported groups were driven away or beaten by Nusra, this resulted in a reversal in the fight between us and Bashar. Due to the fact that these insidious groups were removed, this cleared the way for the sincere groups to completely concentrate on the battle against Bashar. [6]
The defeat of the U.S.-equipped groups and the capture of their equipment also substantially empowered Jabhat al-Nusra. This equipment included anti-tank TOW missiles that were used against Assad by Jaysh al-Fateh in Idlib (Washington Post, March 1). On these, Hollandi remarked: “Furthermore, there is now a high amount of a certain weapons. Guided anti-tank missiles now provide us an opportunity to inflict heavy damage on the army of Assad in other ways. The battle changed from a guerrilla war into a real army versus army war.” It is unclear if the non-Jabhat al-Nusra groups in the coalition are also receiving guided anti-tank missiles from regional Sunni countries backing the alliance.
Conclusion
Jaysh al-Fateh is likely to continue to expand in Sunni areas around Idlib and other parts of northern Syria due to Jabhat al-Nusra’s relative pragmatism, its coordination with other groups, the Syrian government’s lack of manpower, increased regional cooperation to stop Iranian expansion and its newly acquired weapons. If the alliance is not attacked by the Islamic State, it is possible for it to continue to expand in Aleppo and other Sunni-majority provinces in the coming months. It is, however, unlikely that the new alliance will take the capital Damascus in the near future, or the Alawite heartland of western Syria, and it is also likely that Assad’s allies (such as Iran) will try to send more support to counter Jaysh al-Fateh’s advances. That said, further support of regional Sunni countries for the Islamist factions that compose Jaysh al-Fateh would most likely lead to more tensions between these countries with the United States, which is more concerned with halting the Islamic State than toppling Assad. In addition, it is possible that further successes by Jaysh al-Fateh will likely lead to renewed clashes between the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra in northern Syria and the Qalamoun region. In this scenario, the more territory Jaysh al-Fateh takes, the more competition will erupt between the jihadist factions of Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State. Moreover, the Jaysh al-Fateh alliance itself is new and potentially shaky, and could fragment, as have other rebel alliances previously, for instance, due to different policies of Syria’s neighboring countries and pressure from outside powers to contain Nusra’s influence.
Wladimir van Wilgenburg is a political analyst specializing in issues concerning Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey with a particular focus on Kurdish politics.