Sturmwolken über Nahost: Bibis Wiederwahl und Revolutionsgarden als Terrororganisation
Anerkennung der Annexion der Golanhöhen durch Trump, Wiedrwahl Netanjahus und Forderung nach der Annexion des Westjordanlands., Jerusalem als neue Hauptstadt. Das lässt einige neue Konflikte befürchten. Interessant auch nun die Meldung einer libanesischen Zeitung Al Akhbar, die von Israels Medien wie der Jerusalem Post zitiert wird:
„Trump’s peace plan: Grant Jordanian citizenship to a million Palestinian refugees – report
Trump will also ask Egypt to grant citizenship to Palestinian refugees.
April 5, 2019 14:18
President Donald Trump will push for Jordan to grant citizenship to one million Palestinian refugees as part of his „Deal of the Century,“ according to the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar.
Trump will also ask Egypt to grant citizenship to Palestinian refugees. Granting Palestinians refugees citizenship status from other countries may be a way for Trump to avoid establishing a Palestinian state. The report hints that a confederation of three states may be an option, where there would be a joint government between Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority for specific and limited purposes.
According to the report, Jordanian King Abdullah II expressed opposition to the establishment of a joint confederation and told Egyptian leaders that he prefers Jordan to remain in charge of the holy sites in Jerusalem „without interfering in the details between the Israelis and the Palestinians.“
If the Al Akhbar report is correct, Jordan and Egypt will receive USD $110 billion in economic aid, according to the report. It is not yet clear where this reported aid will come from. Jordan would receive USD $45 billion, and the remainder would go to Egypt. For both of the countries part of the money will be used for implementing projects on the ground.
The absorption would happen in stages, where the largest number of refugees that Jordan would have to take in at one time would be 300,000. Palestinians from Gaza who are currently in Jordan would be included in this deal.
Part of the deal would also include giving Jordanian land, Naharayim and Tzofar, to Israel. These enclaves are currently leased to Israel, but officially Jordanian land. In return, Jordan would receive land from Saudi Arabia, the report claimed.
Al Akhbar reported that Trump intends on updating Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the details of his peace plan.
Trump would also propose that Lebanon absorbs a portion of their Palestinian refugees, but if the refugees accept Lebanese citizenship, they would forgo their claim to the right of return.
There have been various reports on what Trump’s peace plan might include. Channel 13 News reported in January, that the deal would include a Palestinian state with 85-90% of the West Bank and the division of Jerusalem.
The report, based on a source who took part in a briefing in Washington on the plan by a senior American official, said it calls for the annexation of the large settlements and the evacuation of settlement outposts deemed illegal under Israeli law.
Herb Keinon contributed to this report.“
Die 2- Staatenlösung ist tot, selbst eine Konföderation scheint nur noch schwer vorstellbar.Man will irreversible Fakten schaffen.
Nun auch noch die Revolutionsgarden des Iran seitens der USA als Terrororganisation auf die Terrorliste. Ob es nur darum geht, deren Reise- und Finanzmöglichkeiten weiter zu beschneiden , um Druck auszuüben, ist fraglich.Ein Experte fürchtet da andere Motivationen dahinter:
„The designation could make U.S.-Iranian interactions more dangerous, particularly in Iraq and the Persian Gulf,“ Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California and author of a book on the rise of the IRGC, says.
Ostovar adds that the risks will depend on how Iran decides to respond. „If it takes any direct action or action by proxy, then it could more quickly lead to escalation. I don’t believe this will happen, but it’s a possibility U.S. forces in the Middle East will have to prepare for,“ he says.
Zudem kritiseren selbst Iran-Hawks des American Enterprise Institutes wie Michael Rubin die US-Entscheidung, da sie die nicht so homognenen Revolutionsgarden zusammenrücken lässt und sie dadurch nicht mehr so einfach in Fraktionen aufgespalten werden können:
„What’s missing in the designation, then, and why might it be the wrong strategic move?
One of the biggest intelligence gaps in US understanding toward Iran over the last 40 years is failure to identify the factional divisions within the IRGC. For all the talk (often inaccurate or exaggerated) of reformists, moderates, hardliners, pragmatists, and principalists in Iranian politics, there is little corollary discussion with any granularity about the factional divisions within the IRGC. While there is widespread agreement that the IRGC is not homogeneous and some Iranians only join for the privileges bestowed, especially in juxtaposition to those conscripted into the regular army, analysts do not have a very good idea about which personalities truly believe the IRGC’s rhetoric versus those who seek to reform the institution versus those who seek only to profit from it.
The problem for Washington and those who value freedom and liberty in Iran is that if Iran is ever going to change, it is going to be essential to fracture the IRGC. That requires identifying its weak points and internal disputes and exacerbating them. There can be no informal reform so long as the IRGC remains intact as a Praetorian Guard for the supreme leader, nor will the regime collapse so long as the IRGC remains in power.
When change comes to Iran, and it may be coming very soon with the deaths from old age of regime elites and the likely death sooner rather than later of Khamenei himself, it will be essential to win over those within the IRGC who cynically seek profit rather than those for whom ideology guides. A broad terrorist designation may hamper defections if US policy considers the guilt of IRGC membership indelible.
Designating the IRGC may satiate a segment of the American audience for whom hatred of the Islamic Republic of Iran runs paramount, but it will be counterproductive if it, first, allows the IRGC to consolidate itself and, second, substitutes for the far more difficult problem of fracturing the organization and encouraging defections from within its ranks.“
Je nachdem, wie die iranischen Revolutionsgarden reagieren, könnte es schneller zu einem militärischen Konflikt zwischen den USA und Iran kommen, als man sich wünschen kann. Vielleicht ist dies aber auch die Intention dieser geschichtlich doch recht einzigartigen Maßnahme. Gut möglich, dass Trump die Konfrontation mit dem Iran als Teil des Wahlkampfes, auch mit Hinblick auf die Israelunterstützer in den USA sowie die 80 Millionen Evangelikalen, die seine Stammwähler ausmachen vor 2020 hochfahren wird, vielleicht einen Krieg provozieren wird, um Iran als expansive, revolutionsexportierende Regionalmacht zu neutralisieren.
Interessant war, dass das iranische Parlament nun beschloss, mit den USA einen Krieg oder Provokationen verhindern zu wollen. Aber ob Khameini, die Revolutionsgarden nun die von Trump geforderte „Verhaltensänderung“ signalisieren werden, bleibt abzuwarten, wie auch die nächsten Aktionen der USA und Israels. Zumal auch als nächstes von US-Seite gefordert werden könnte, dass sich die Revolutionären Garden des Irans auch aus Syrien und Irak verabschieden. Spätestens dann käme es zu einer Grundsatzentscheidung auf beiden Seiten , bestenfalls noch partiellen Abzügen aus dem schiitischen Halbmond., den der Iran als Verhaltensänderung offerieren könnte, dies aber angesichts der Anerkennung Jerusalems, der Annexion der Golanhöhe und vielleicht auch noch des Westjordanlands eher fragich ist. Die Trump-USA, Israel und Saudiarabien erhofft sich wohl angesichts ihres geradezu wasserdichten Zusammenhalts und bedingungsloser Stärke, dass jetzt der Iran, die Türkei, die Palästinenser nun mangels eigener Ohnmacht einknicken. Ob diese Kalkulation aufgeht, weden wir in den nächsten Monaten sehen.