Hong Kong: Increasing violence and rumors about a Trump Xi deal



In Hong Kong, the protests continue as usual, only with increasing violence. A protester was shot and protesters poured gasoline over a man. The last few days there are repeatedly reports that it will soon come to a Sino-American trade agreement. Then again and again denials from the White House. Of the 5 claims of the Hong Kong opposition, one has already been met-the repeal of the Extradition law.3 other demands – investigation of police violence, amnesty, refusal to call the protests riots.wouldn´t be the fundamental problem for Carrie Lam and the CP China. The tipping point is the demand for free elections (puxuan) and what that means. Here, the 1997 compromise is called into question and this could mean a new political system. What Joshua Wong said in Berlin was a declaration of intent to integrate the Hong Kong movement on a long-term and large scale into the global movement against the CP China that is just beginning to emerge. He wants to make Hong Kong the new front city Berlin in Asia for a new Cold War between the West and China. Yes, Joshua Wong intends an international anti-CP front, breaking with the Hong Kong local patriotism, which prefers to limit this to Hong Kong. But the question is also how far Joshua Wong’s position is majority opinion within the movement. That might be more heterogeneous than It seems in the pseudo onity of the 5 demands.Carrie Lam and Beijing will try to split the movement about this issue.

Optimists believe in a solution based on the model of the Wukan uprising in China. The population of the Chinese village of Wukan was dissatisfied with the city government, protested, stormed the government buildings and replaced the mayor with its own people’s candidate. Strangely, this was accepted by the Communist Party of China. Provincial Governor Wang Yang, unlike Bo Xilai, was even admitted to the Politburo, as one would have thought that would be a stigma of loss of control from the point of view of the CPChina. How the situation developed afterwards  in Wukan, you do not know. The last report I about it saw that the CP had tried to make the new mayor a member of the party and to corrupt it. The CPC showed enormous flexibility. Nevertheless, I believe that this has happened at a local level and would it have been more widespread, for example at provincial or national level, the CP China would have suppressed the riot with violence. At the same time, Carrie Lam and the CP China could allow new elections under the 1997 consensus, perhaps with a few alibi candidates from the protest movement But it is not even sure if that will happen or if they do not intend to sit out and then suppress the oppositin by force. An oppositionist wrote to me : „

Yes, I also heard of Wukan, it was also a bit violent, the villagers also formed a vigilant militia, the village was closed both inside and out. The closeness and combat readiness of the inhabitants have brought about the partial successes. But as you have guessed, and also in the case of Hong Kong, you should never have illusions in the CP. I think they have managed to corrupt the Wukan’s new leadership and incorporate it as a political force. One of the active fighters Zhuang Liehong went into exile to the USA and became an important assistant to Guo Wengui, as far as I know. Conclusion: if you mess with KP, you have to be mentally and strategically well prepared and certain narrow-mindedness is definitely one of them. Because it is not a parent-child relationship, as many would like to imagine. „

It was interesting to see  the illusion that many Chinawatchers had in Wukan’s case. It was fantasized that this could become the future model for the CPC in dealing with riots and Wang Yang in the Politburo could become a new Chinese Gorbachev. I thought that was squeaky nonsense. Wukan remains the exception to the rule, was a village and Wang Yang is not a Chinese Gorbachev. Beyond this the tendency of zhe püolitzicalsystem in China now goes to the one-man rule and digital totalitarianism.

The current violence in Hong Kong plays two cards in the hands of the CP: International sympathizers are more likely to expect a peaceful German revolution, which had the battle cry: no violence. In addition, in the special case of Germany, you have to realize that the postwar Germans are mostly very pacifist, at macimum only accept peaceful protests (with the exception of left and right radicals) and even Lenin said that if Germans want to make a revolution and occupy a train station, they would first buy a platform ticket. Only In France and other European countries, people tend to have a different relationship with protests and violence.

Secondly, it provides Lam and the CPC with an ideal pretext to suppress the movement. I also guess the CP China will try to infiltrate the Hongkong mopposition movement by some agent provocateurs to catalyze the violence. But first it remains the  task of movement to de-escalate the conflict and go back to peaceful forms of action like in June, maybe even going on strikes. Of course, it sounds a bit arrogant, if one writes remote diagnosis and comments on the Hong Kong protests. Firstly, I know even from demos and movements, that it is not so easy to stop violence, especially since the Hong Kong police is also quite violent. Nevertheless, there are limits. If someone is ooured over with petrol and lit, here are clearly the limits of protest and counter violence. In addition, the symbolic effect reminds me  of the self-immolation of the Falungong members at Tiananmen Square. That was propagandistic water on the mills of the CP.

One should also keep an eye on whether or not an agreement can be reached in the trade dispute between Xi and Trump. Perhaps Xi is still holding back in Hong Kong, as he does not want to burden the trade negotiations any further. However, whether the deal will ever come to fruition it at best, would be a ceasefire before the US elections, but would only delay the Sino-American conflict and its further escalation. I guess Trump does not care about the Hong Kong protests, human rights and democracy, especially since he sees authoritarian leaders like Xi as his equals. Unlike most Democrats and Republicans.  Trump`s goal is to get a deal with Xi, that degrades China in the medium term economically and militarily to the No.2. Hard to imagine that Xi will accept this.


It is possible, however, in the short term with the perspective of the upcoming US elections, that a limited trade agreement might be reached which Trump can sell as a success. Then he would not care about Hongkong. The question is how far the US demands go and second, whether Xi is willing to give Trump this election gift willing -maybe in return for Trump’s noninterfrence, if Xi oppresses the Hong Kong protest movement-much like the Kurds. And he could then point to the violence and stability and calm and order. Some Chinese oppositionists are now talking about making Hongkong the Waterloo and Staklingrad for the CPC. Waterloo, Stalingrad-historically different – be it the balance of power and the international constellations., Similar to Joshgua Wong´s  Berlin comparisons.In Berlin stood US, British and British troops and then the entire NATO in the background, as well as the West at that time was still unified. But some Fortune, like Fritz the Great, and fighting spirit like the Zionists could do well to the Hong Kong and Chinese opposition, who, like David, are fighting Goliath and hoping that they can delay the conflict until it expands to China and the Sino- American conflict continues to worsen. But it is questionable whether the Communist Party will continue to watch such a possible scenario and development for so long.

Über Ralf Ostner

Ralf Ostner geboren 1964 in Frankfurt am Main, 1984 Abitur in Bayern--Leitungskurse: Physik und Kunst/ Schülerzeitung. Studium der Physik (Nebenfächer: Mathematik, Chemie), Wirtschaftsgeographie (Nebenfächer: BWL, VWL) und Studium der Sinologie. 1991 Abschluss als staatlich geprüfter Übersetzer in der englischen und chinesischen Sprache am Sprachen- und Dolmetscher-Institut/München (Leiter der Chinesisch-Abteilung: Herr Zhang, ehemaliger Dolmetscher von Deng Xiaoping und Franz-Josef Strauß).Danach 5 Jahre Asienaufenthalt: China, Indien, Südostasien (u.a. in Kambodscha während des ersten Auslandseinsatzes der Bundeswehr, Interviews mit Auslandschinesen, Recherche im Karen-Guerillagebiet in Burma, Unterstützung einer UNO-Mitarbeiterin während den Aufständen in Nepal und bei UNO-Arbeit in Indien), Australien. Danach 5 Jahre als Dolmetscher, Delegationsbegleiter und Übersetzer in München. Abendstudium an der Hochschule für Politik /München (Schwerpunkt: Internationale Beziehungen). Abschluss als Diplom-Politologe (Diplomarbeit: Die deutsch-chinesischen Beziehungen 1989-2000 unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der SPD-Grünen-Regierung). Delegationsbegleitung von Hu Ping, Chefredakteur der chinesischen Dissidentenzeitung "Pekinger Frühling" (New York)und prominentester Vertreter eines chinesischen Liberalismus bei seiner Deutschlandtour (Uni München, Uni Mainz, Berlin/FU-Humboldt) bei gleichzeitigem Kontakt mit Liu Liqun (Autor des Buches "Westliches Denken transzendieren"/ heute: Deutschlandberater der chinesischen Regierung).Chefredakteur der Studentenzeitschrift UNIPOL . Projekte am Goethe-Institut und bei FOCUS TV. Seit 2000 Übersetzer (chinesisch-deutsch), Graphiker, freier Schriftsteller und Blogger.
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