Biden-Xi talks and diplomatic backdoor for Pelosi instead of a new Taiwan crisis?
Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would not take place in a vacuum. China sees this as a provocation and upgrading of Taiwan above the normal status quo, as well as a game changer and undermining of the one-China principle. This became similarly clear when the US Congress made a bipartisan draft to rename Taiwan’s cultural offices to the Taiwan Representative Office, which Lithuania did and to which Beijing reacted harshly with sanctions, as well as China having its ambassador appear on US television for the first time to send the clear message that if this bill passed, the US and Taiwan could expect a military response from China. Nancy Pelosi wanted to visit Taiwan before, after Rick Scott and Lindsay Graham did, but postponed it because of a Corona infection, but the difference is that the latter two are from the opposition party and not from the ruling party like Pelosi. Likewise, references to the visit to Taiwan by then-Chairman of the US House of Representatives Newt Gingrich in the 1990s are misleading, since Gingrich was also a member of the opposition party at that time. Also, a Taiwan crisis erupted in the 1990s as a result of then-Taiwanese President Lee Denghui’s US visit, but after Clinton sent an aircraft carrier group down the Taiwan Straits, it was soon over. But China was weaker then, and that humiliation is not forgotten, as is the US-NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia. Therefore, a Pelosi visit, which the US military strongly advises against as it already has enough to do in Europe and Ukraine, would have a different background and probably not end as harmless as under Clinton. In addition, the Pelosi visit would also fall in the period when the USA is holding the world’s largest naval maneuvers in the Pacific: Pacific Rim, which Beijing also sees as a provocation:
“Twenty-Six Nations to Participate in World’s Largest Naval Exercise
The 2022 edition of the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercises will see key US partners deploying their naval assets in the world’s largest naval war games.
The 26-nation exercise includes the four Quad members (Australia, India, Japan, and the US) and five nations bordering the South China Sea (the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Singapore).
The other 17 participants are Canada, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, France, Germany, Israel, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Peru, the Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tonga, and the UK.
25,000 Personnel to Participate
Thirty-eight surface ships, four submarines, more than 170 aircraft, and approximately 25,000 personnel, including nine national land forces, will take part in the biennial exercise from June 29 to August 4 in Honolulu and San Diego, the US Navy’s 3rd Fleet said in a statement.
Participants will practice a range of maneuvers, including “amphibious operations, gunnery, missile, anti-submarine and air defense exercises, as well as counter-piracy operations, mine clearance operations, explosive ordnance disposal, and diving and salvage operations.”
To Ensure ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’
The exercise draws on the collective strengths of participants, intended to “ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
The joint exercise will help the partner nations enhance the “interoperability, resilience, and agility” needed to ensure safe sea lanes and “deter and defeat aggression by major powers across all domains and levels of conflict.”
America’s ‘Political Clout’ on Display
A former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, Carl Schuster, told CNN that the “line up” in the exercise shows that America’s “political clout” is still intact worldwide.
“It signifies the strength and breadth of America’s global maritime partnerships, a very important deterrent signal to any potential aggressors who may believe Washington’s influence and strategic position, especially that of its navy, is in decline.
“RIMPAC’s broad international participation proves that is not the case,” Schuster said.
Now Xi has had a phone conversation with Biden. Working groups were agreed to be set up and communication channels to prevent misperceptions and escalations, as well as to solve common world problems like climate protection, combating pandemics, etc. But Biden does not seem to have taken a clear position on the Pelosi visit, so Xi onv ce again pointed out that if the US played with fire, they would get burned in the fire. In addition, Russia has now backed China on the Taiwan question, so it would also support China in a Sino-American conflict or even war, just as Rusia is is turning off the gas for Japan via Sakhalin similar to Europe (even without allegedly missing turbines) and also wants to hold together with China Pacific naval maneuvers in response to US- led Pacific Rim. There are voices in the USA and the EU that Taiwan must now be supported and upgraded, otherwise Beijing, like Putin, sees this as a weakness and there would be a Pacific Ukraine. However, the fact that Pelosi’s visit might be one too many provocation and could cross a red line is not seen as a danger at all and is rated as appeasement. It is now interesting that the media, starting with SPIEGEL, are now spreading a different version: Pelosi has allegedly not yet officially announced her visit to Taiwan. Is that a face-saving back door, which then claims that it was just a media rumor that hadn’t been seriously considered and that this was just harmless and inconsequential House bubble small talk that the aggressive Chinese had overinterpreted, misunderstood and misperceived?
“One China Policy Russia supports Beijing’s claims on Taiwan
China’s head of state Xi warned US President Biden against „playing with fire“ in the dispute over Taiwan. Russia is now clearly signaling that it is on Beijing’s side.
It is said to be the first conversation between Antony Blinken and Sergey Lavrov since the beginning of the war: a few days ago, the US Secretary of State announced a phone call with his Russian counterpart. However, it is not yet clear when this will take place. So far, Lavrov has referred to his busy schedule. Now he said he would send a proposed date to Washington soon and then hear what the other side had to say. A possible exchange of prisoners should be a big topic in the phone call. According to Blinken, the US has presented a „substantial offer“ to negotiate the release of jailed US basketball player Brittney Griner. Lavrov did not comment on this, but is now publicly positioning himself in another conflict. Tensions are currently being raised between China and the United States over dealings with Taiwan. The background is a possible trip by the chairwoman of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to the democratic island republic of Taiwan, which the Chinese leadership regards as part of the communist people’s republic. Russia’s foreign minister has now made it clear that when it comes to Taiwan, his country supports Beijing’s one-China policy.
China recently warned the United States of a possible trip to Taiwan by Pelosi. The Chinese leadership not only regards Taiwan as part of the People’s Republic, but also threatens to conquer it. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, concerns have grown that China too might one day carry out its threats. Beijing had already made it clear that it viewed such a trip by Pelosi as a provocation. Xi warns Biden against ‚playing with fire‘ over Taiwan
The Speaker of the House of Representatives has not yet officially announced a trip. It was said from her circle that she was planning a visit to Taiwan. Pelosi has not yet commented publicly on this. According to media reports, however, she has already invited Democrats and Republicans to accompany her on the trip. According to the broadcaster CNN, the Pentagon is already working on security measures if the 82-year-old should really travel to Taiwan. It also remained unclear when exactly the trip with several stops in Asia should take place. The US media speculated that Pelosi could set off this Friday. In a phone call lasting more than two hours on Thursday, China’s head of state and party leader Xi Jinping warned his US counterpart Joe Biden against „playing with fire“ in Taiwan policy.
In any case, there is no option for Pelosi to postpone her visit to Taiwan because of the excuese of Corona like the last time and to cancel it for the time being. But who knows: maybe a monkeypox virus will take over the House of Representatives or a new Chinese virus mutant from Wuhan. One can be curious.
Does Pelosi then have to stay at home to protect the House of Representatives after Capitol Hill and can no longer go to Taiwan? This only as satire, but it is up to Pelosi whether or not she wants to push through the US separation of powers as a member of the government despite Biden and the Pacific Rim, including the upgrading of Taiwan, especially since Biden and the Democrats know that any retreat in this direction by the Republicans, Chinabashers of the Democratic Party and the Trumpists at the same time can be understood as appeasement and used for propaganda purposes. At least the CCP wants to show with a new military maneuver that it will not accept any provocations:
“China announces military maneuvers in Taiwan Strait
The government in Beijing also wants to use live ammunition in the water. Earlier, President Xi Jinping warned against „playing with fire“.
In addition, Taiwan’s own maneuvers, which are intended to counter China are nearly not mentiodned in thisgeopolitical framework as Pacific Rim :
“Military maneuvers in Taiwan are rehearsing for emergencies Status: 07/27/2022 12:22 p.m
The government in Taiwan holds its annual military maneuvers. An invasion on the northwest coast is simulated. China, which does not recognize Taiwan’s independence, responded with threats. Taiwan conducts its annual military exercise. The island wants to show strength, alone 20 warships take part in the maneuver, destroyers, frigates. An invasion on the northwest coast is simulated. That’s the one towards the Taiwan Strait – opposite is China, which does not see the island as independent but as part of the People’s Republic and wants to incorporate it. The threat to Taiwan is constant, but has recently become increasingly clear – a motivated force is particularly important here. And perhaps that’s why President Tsai Ing-wen is attending in person this time. Today’s maneuver shows the determination and ability of the servicewomen and men to „defend their country,“ she said through her radio. „Let’s keep working hard and keep our country together,“ was the President’s appeal to the soldiers. Improve „Overall Combat Skills“. It is only the second time in Tsai’s six-year tenure that she has attended a maneuver. Television pictures show her in camouflage clothing, listening, nodding, looking through binoculars. And of all things, during the President’s visit, not everything went as planned: „During today’s exercise, in which the Air Force fired missiles, there was actually a missile that did not hit the target,“ said Defense Ministry spokesman Sun Li-Fang . However, he also emphasized that the main goal of the exercise is to “improve overall fighting skills. Whether we hit the target or not, it’s of great value to us,“ Sun said. Because Taiwan knows that it has little chance of a possible attack by China, but wants to make it as difficult as possible for the opponent. Beijing: „Doomed to fail in the end“[rr1] The most recent exercise was of course also a topic in Beijing. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian spoke about it at the weekly press briefing. He made a conspicuous number of pauses in each sentence and made an interesting comparison: I would like to take this opportunity to say something to the Taiwanese authorities. Their push for Taiwan independence is a dead end. Taiwan’s attempt to confront China militarily is like a praying mantis trying to block a chariot. In the end he is doomed to fail. But David’s fight against Goliath also ended differently than expected. https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/taiwan-militaermanoever-drohung-china-101.html