Pentagon report and PLA drills: Chinese invasion in 2027 at the latest? For a strategic stockpilling and strategic reserve in a Sinoamerican war

Pentagon report and PLA drills: Chinese invasion in 2027 at the latest? For a strategic stockpilling and strategic reserve in a Sinoamerican war

While the German Ministery of Economics under Habeck prepares for the scenario that “China will annex Taiwan in 2027 at the lattest”, the PLA is just training for such a case:

PLA Army brigade holds urban warfare drills integrating drones, robots

By  Liu Xuanzun

Published: Dec 05, 2022 08:56 PM Updated: Dec 05, 2022 08:52 PM

Soldiers assigned to a reconnaissance element of an airborne brigade advance in ghillie suits while keeping on alert in a combat training exercise on November 11, 2022. Photo:China Military

Soldiers assigned to a reconnaissance element of an airborne brigade advance in ghillie suits while keeping on alert in a combat training exercise on November 11, 2022. Photo:China Military

An army brigade of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently held a series of urban warfare exercises in which troops integrated drones and robots for reconnaissance, combat support and logistics support tasks, with experts saying on Monday that the use of unmanned equipment could significantly enhance combat effectiveness and lower casualties.

The drills, carried out by the Linfen Brigade of the PLA 71st Group Army recently at an urban offense and defense training ground, featured troops-unmanned equipment integrated zone contests, China Central Television (CCTV) reported on Sunday.

During the drills, the troops were guided by reconnaissance data from drones as they took advantageous positions, after which aerial drones and robot vehicles led the charge entering target buildings with foot soldiers following, CCTV reported.

Small rotor wing drones and tracked robot vehicles not only conducted reconnaissance, but also transported munitions and other support materials, with large, unmanned engineering vehicles also deployed to break through obstacles in the way, the report shows.

Over the past years, this brigade has enhanced its troops-unmanned equipment integration capabilities, conducted research on computer-assisted decision making, and widely deployed unmanned equipment in reconnaissance, combat support and logistics support, which effectively enhanced combat efficiency in urban warfare, Major Lin Jianyuan of the brigade told CCTV.

The brigade also uses a 3D simulation training system for urban warfare, which looks not unlike a video game, to train the troops, according to the report.

Nearly 100 simulations were carried out with this system, practicing detailed coordination between each individual soldier and large weapon, said Lieutenant Colonel Xu Peixian.

Urban warfare is one of the most challenging forms of combat in modern warfare that could cause heavy casualties. Integrating unmanned equipment and conducting simulated exercises are good ways to enhance troop combat capabilities and lower casualties, a Beijing-based military expert who requested anonymity told the Global Times on Monday.

Under the PLA Eastern Theater Command, the 71st Group Army faces the real combat need of urban warfare in a possible scenario of reunification-by-force of the island of Taiwan following amphibious landing, and that is why preparations must be made, the expert said.

The Linfen Brigade got its name from the Linfen Campaign during the War of Liberation (1946-49), in which the brigade seized the city of Linfen in North China from Kuomintang forces, leading Mao Zedong to say the campaign „set a successful example for urban offensive combat,“ the PLA Daily reported.“

The Pentagon however published a new report to the US Congress about a Chinese invasion against Taiwan:

„Thu, Dec 01, 2022 page1

US identifies four invasion possibilities

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE: China might impose a blockade, conduct limited force operations, use an air and missile campaign, or resort to an invasion, the report said

Staff writer, with CNA, WASHINGTON

The US Department of Defense has identified four possible military courses of action that China could take against Taiwan, but did not offer any guess on when Beijing might be ready to act.

In an annual report to the US Congress released on Tuesday titled Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2022, the department gave a broad overview of China’s military capabilities, strategy, ambitions and intentions.

The report devoted significant space to developments related to Taiwan, against which it said China had intensified diplomatic, economic, political and military pressure last year.

For example, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted 20 naval exercises simulating the capture of Taiwan last year, up from 13 a year earlier, it said.

Chinese warplanes, including advanced J-16 fighters, entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on 240 days last year, it said.

China now has a range of military courses of action it can take against Taiwan, which vary in feasibility and risk, and can be divided into four general categories, the report said.

First, China could attempt to impose an air and maritime blockade to cut off Taiwan’s vital imports, possibly accompanied by missile attacks or the seizure of Taiwan’s outlying islands, in an effort to force its capitulation, the report said.

This would also likely be complemented by electronic warfare, network attacks and information operations “to further isolate Taiwan’s authorities and populace, and control the international narrative of the conflict,” it said.

Second, Beijing could conduct “limited force or coercive operations,” it said.

In this scenario, China would use “computer network or limited kinetic attacks” against political, military or economic infrastructure to induce fear and degrade the confidence of Taiwanese in their leaders, the report said.

In such an operation, PLA special operations forces could also “infiltrate Taiwan and conduct attacks against infrastructure or leadership targets,” it said.

Third, an air and missile campaign involving precision strikes against key government and military targets to degrade Taiwan’s defenses, “neutralize” its leadership or undermine the public’s resolve to resist might be used, the report said.

Fourth would be an actual invasion of Taiwan, it said.

The invasion tactics China would most likely adopt would be a joint island landing campaign, the report said.

That concept envisions a complex, coordinated campaign to establish a beachhead, build up combat power on Taiwan’s shores and seize key targets across the nation, it said.

While China is continuing to build and rehearse these capabilities, a large-scale amphibious invasion is “one of the most complicated and difficult military operations” and would likely strain China’s armed forces and invite international intervention, the report said.

“Combined with inevitable force attrition, complexity of urban warfare and potential insurgency, these factors make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political risk for [Chinese President] Xi Jinping (習近平) and the Chinese Communist Party, even assuming a successful landing and breakout,” it said.

Nevertheless, the Pentagon believes that China is already capable of amphibious operations short of a full-scale invasion, such as an invasion of Pratas Island (Dongsha Island, 東沙群島) or Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島), or of the better-defended islands of Kinmen and Lienchiang counties, it said.

However, even a limited operation would involve significant “and possibly prohibitive” political risks, because it could galvanize independence sentiment in Taiwan and generate powerful international opposition, the report said.

The report did not set out a timeline on when China might take such actions, although it said that China’s goal of accelerating the integrated development of its military by 2027 could give it “a more credible military tool … to wield as it pursues Taiwan unification.””

Many experts are now criticizing Habeck for being a provocateur himself, for pouring oil into the fire, for wanting to fuel the conflict with China and for setting the date accordingly dramatically: “China will annex Taiwan by 2027 at the latest”.

Just as if a Sino-American war could be triggered and decided by Germany. The times when the three main imperialist great powers USA, China and Russia understood each other quite well and against this background the Schröders and Merkels could imagine that she was something like “the most powerful woman in the world”. have been over since Trump at the latest. Now, in view of this escalating conflict between the three great powers, people in Europe and Germany are realizing that they have entered into cruel dependencies, that they are no longer the supposed leading power, they are now trying to become one in competition within the EU against each other , or otherwise as the Körber Foundation hopes for a German-French-Polish axis that could form a strong European and integrative axis. In fact, however, the USA, Russia and China determine the conflict and how it will develop, Europe and Asia is the venue and possibly the battlefield of their competition and the rest of Asia and rest of Europe can provide the respective auxiliary troops and sort themselves into this bloc formation. Baerbock, like Merkel, thinks she is the most powerful woman in the world because she is currently acting under Biden’s US whistle and Blinken speaks with her also on a first-name basis, but at the latest with Trump it could all be over again and even now it’s not the way she imagines it would be. So real power and imagined power are two different things, especially if you can at best imagine a conventional Weimar axis as a power option, but which wouldn’t even know where it got its nuclear protection from.

But to come back to the topic of an CHinese Taiwan invasion and possible sinoamerican war: Tt’s not just a tactical question, it’s a very fundamental one: Global Review would like to defend Habeck here. One can argue about invasion dates, but we were already considered crazy back then when we pointed to a coming Sino-American conflict with the possibility of war in our GR article „How should Germany positioned in a Sino-American war?“, which was also publish on the website of the think tank of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs RIAC, because at that time we still had the illusionary hope ala Mearsheimer’s offensive realism and Merkel or Schröder that Russia could be brought to the western side in such a Sino-American conflict or just kept neutral. Irrespective of the specualtive choice of date for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Germany should have at least strategic stockpiling as a consequence, which can compensate for or at least mitigate a loss of supply from China for at least a year, especially since the US chief strategist at Offshore Control TX Hammes clearly explains that in the event of such a Sino-American War, world trade would collapse in the beginning as it did during World War I, especially since world trade today is much more extensive, intensive, interdependent and global. In this respect, Habeck is right to address it at all and to press the pedal, since there are problems at every corner, from the energy transition to German rearmament. And I would also be careful if Xi is really the rational thinker and Go- strategist. We had previously said that about Putin, especially since he was the first sober Russian and apparently neo-realistic chess player in contrast to the drunk Yeltsin. In addition, one must also take into account that such a war could also be triggered by a Trump, Pompeo, Ron De Santis or China hawks on the US side or the interplay of provocations between Xi and the US side. We’ll leave this question open for a moment, but we think that the organization of strategic stockpiling and reserve should at least be promoted, beacuse even under the most harmless scenario of Offshore Control, a maritime blockade of China ala TX Hammes, the snaction effects against Russia and the backlash were harmless. Of course, that doesn’t mean Nintendo consoles for video games for Christmas as the delay in delivery caused by the stranded container ship in the Suez Canal has already triggered half a national crisis,but about real strategic stockpiling of essential core goods and raw materials. Not easy, because since just-in-time and lean production, logistics, warehousing and the associated infrastructure first have to be learned and built again. Sort of back to the milk lakes and butter mountains of the old EG and other things—but vice versa, we haven’t heard anything about it from Habeck either. That would be more of a criticism and the question if there couldn´t be also diplomatic initiatves.

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