The leaking of the US documents shortly after the Chinese Ukraine Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, the Macron/EU-Leyen meeting with Xi and above all before the spring offensive by the Ukrainians, from which many optimists in the West expected a lot, some even the conquest of Crimea is amazing. Who did this and for what reason?
1) The Russians or Chinese made a mega hack or agent or multiple within the US system. Also, let’s not forget that during the Kosovo war, the French were expelled from NATO’s chain of information as they were suspected of leaking information to Serbia and Russia.
2) A Western man of conviction ala Assange, Edward Snowden or that US military man Chelsey Manning, who has since become a woman, who thinks he can save world peace and end further bloodshed with it.
3) US circles in the security apparatus, who rather want Milley’s Korean solution or a quick solution because they fear an erosion of their own power through a longer war in Ukraine, perhaps even an escalation to the point of nuclear attacks if Crimea is attacked or the Ukrainians are too successful or are now hoping to achieve a faster turn to the Asian Pivot and China.
No idea which of these options it is or even a combination of them. In any case, the USA seems pretty embarrassed and not even the USA seems to believe in a Russian fake anymore. While some documents may have been propaganda-styled to reduce and idelaize Russian losses, the nervousness in Washington, as well as the fact that the Ukrainians are forced to change their tactics on the offensive, shows that a significant portion of the leaks appear to be authentic. In any case, it undermines belief in and trust in the USA if they cannot prevent such leaks, especially since the scope and level of secrecy are not at the lower or middle level as with Chelsey Manning or Snowden or Assange, but at the highest inclusive level government level. In addition, the nice iamge of an united West to the outside world as close friends and allies was again damaged by the news that the USA had spied on their own allies, even as secret services of allied countries normally spy on ich other and follow Lenin´s slogan: Trust is good, but controll is better. After the USA invested much energy to make the public forget the NSA scandal with reports such as the tapped Merkel mobile phone and US economic espionage against Germany’s renewable energy industry and for the decade after it only Russia and China were associated wth the terms espionage and cyberwar in the media as actors, the Europeans and Germans remeber Henry Kissinger’s realpolitik credo: „States have no friends, only interests“, even if Annalena Baerbock is hugging „Tony“ Blinken giving the Indian foreign minister a kiss on his chest.
Which in turn is water on the mills of Russia, China and also Macron’s dedicated anti-Americanism, which envisages „European sovereignty“ and a European power as a 3rd way. Whereby Macron, like the former French defense minister Marie Alliot, offered the Germans and Europeans the Force de Frappe as the core of a European deterrence and nuclear power, although the command to use them would remain with Paris, so it would not be so European, especially since the question is whether the small Force De Frappe would be a credible deterrent given Russia’s vast nuclear arsenals and Macron would sacrifice Paris for Warsaw. At the time, Merkel clearly rejected French offers in this direction in favor of transatlantic US nuclear protection, and Scholz or the Germans have not yet responded to Macron’s calls, especially since Franco-German relations are also in a crisis. In addition, Macron seems to be hoping that he can counteract the domestic mass protests with a dose of nationalism and a vision of the Grand Nation as Europe’s new leading power instead of Germany. Nevertheless, it is not to be expected that Macron will leave NATO like De Galle, even if he has once declared NATO „brain dead“.
Dr Alexander Rahr asked the question: „Can Germany lead Europe without Macron, but with Ursula von der Leyen? The German think tank community is convinced of it.“
But then Macron would be almost isolated and what would happen to the German-French axis and the hoped-for Weimar triangle? Von der Leyen would have to rely more on the Eastern Europeans, especially the Poles and Scandinavians. As it was said recently: The EU and NATO are becoming more directed to the East and more to the North and become more transatlantic. Macron may not like it.
Dr. Rahr who is in Paris at the moment watching the actual developments then said: „That’s the reason for his displeasure. But I agree with him. An Eastern European-led EU is leading Europe into war with Russia. General Vad knows that too.“
It remains unclear whether Macron’s fear is really that of a nuclear escalation or a direct war with Russia, or whether it is more about the possibly weakening role of the Grand Nation. But Vad is not Germany and there is also no German or French NATO Secretary General in sight, not von der Leyen either, but probably an East European, probably Prime Minister Kallas from Estonia, the most sensitive area of NATO for a possible invasion of Russia, especially since this tiny state has also a large Russian-ethnic population.
Ukraine’s chief of staff is now attempting damage control, claiming that all of this information, while possibly correct, is ultimately useless as offensive decisions are made at the last moment and remain secret. At the same time, Kiev announces that it will now change its tactics for the offensive and will not cancel it. However the question remains, whether this can be done without any problems or is it just a protective claim so that there is no Western pressure to cancel it, maybe even enter into negotiations.
Anyway, this should also be a forewarning regarding Taiwan. Because to what extent has China infiltrated the military and the secret service there, or does it have the KMT as a 5th column? This is exactly what Global Review pointed out early on. The report by Nikkei Asia almost a month ago that allegedly 90% of Taiwan’s former military personnel had traveled to China and exchanged information for money caused some uncertainty in Taiwan. Ala Sun Tzes The Art of War and the use of the 8 agents who then open the city gates from the inside.
The almost hysterically hyped case of the BND agent who had spied with a diamond dealer for the Russians still appears as a small stuff. Or is that just the tip of the iceberg and can such a leak disaster be expected in Germany in the future?